re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine’s Air Force shoots down 4 Russian helicopters in 18 minutes
Wednesday, 12 October 2022, 13:30

On the morning of 12 October, units of the Ukrainian Air Force shot down at least four Russian attack helicopters in 18 minutes.

Source: press service of the Air Force

Quote: "From 8:40 to 8:58 on 12 October, in the south of Ukraine, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force destroyed at least four attack helicopters of the enemy (presumably Ka-52s) which provided fire support to occupying troops on the ground on the southern front."

Details: Preliminary information indicates that one helicopter crashed on territory recently liberated from Russians, the others were downed behind the zone of contact. The Air Force has added that two more helicopters were engaged, therefore there is a possibility that other targets were also hit.

Ukrainska Pravda.

As Chromedome currently has his mind on little arms hugging his neck, the rest of us must try to fill in for him. As the recent Russian missile attacks will certainly elicit a strong response from the West, I ran across a good overview from The Economist (paywall) of some of the anti-missile systems we are seeing deployed to Ukraine. Here are some of the highlights -

Currently, Ukraine still relies mainly on Soviet-era defense systems such as the Buk and the S-300, and its supplies of surface-to-air missiles are gradually being exhausted.

The Israeli Iron Dome system is not the answer as it is designed to stop small short-range rockets such as those launched by Palestinian militant groups, and can cover only a limited area. Russia is attacking Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles such as the Kalibr and Kh-101, which can skim at low altitudes to avoid radar. It is also using the Iskander ballistic missile and possibly the Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile, both of which are far too large and fast for Iron Dome.

The German IRIS-T battery that arrived in Ukraine yesterday consists of three truck-mounted launchers carrying 24 missiles (eight per launcher) with ranges of 40km (25 miles), controlled by a separate command vehicle up to 20km away. The system’s radar is exceptionally sensitive and will be good at detecting low-flying, stealthy missiles such as the Kalibr. More of these IRIS batteries are to arrive as soon as they are produced. They are made in both Germany and Italy.

More importantly, the IRIS-T’s command vehicle integrates different sources of radar data from ground stations and aircraft into a single information space, so that a battery can engage targets even if it cannot yet see them. Russian Buk and S-300’s can only attack objects tracked by their own radar. And whereas those systems track and destroy targets one by one, an IRIS-T battery can launch and track all 24 of its missiles simultaneously, making it much harder to overwhelm with numbers.

Soon the Ukrainians will also get the Norwegian NASAMS. Like IRIS-T, it integrates multiple sources of data into one information space. It also uses a missile, the AMRAAM, which has been a standard NATO air-to-air combat missile for decades, although the application in Ukraine will be ground-to-air. Importantly in comparison with the IRIS, large existing stocks will make it easy to resupply. NASAMS is in service in 12 countries, including NATO members, and Ukrainian forces have already been trained to operate it. Its missiles have a 40km range, but a newer version will extend that to over 100km. When it comes into service, Ukraine may be able to use its improved missiles without having to replace the launch system.

With these weapons in place in quantity, the current 40 to 60% interception rate of Russian cruise missiles should increase substantially. However, these anti-missile systems will not be effective against the ballistic Iskander missile. This missile is a long range weapon that drops almost vertically from high altitude at very high speed. This speed and the fact that it is maneuverable and much larger (700kg warhead) than either the IRIS or NASAM (100kg warhead) makes it problematic for these defensive weapons. As Denys Smazhnyi, the chief of training for Ukraine’s anti-aircraft missile forces states, “the best protection against ballistic missiles is concrete.”


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The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated five more settlements in the Kherson region – OC “South”

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These settlements are what was mopped up, not new territory at the front

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Fuel is Russia's biggest need for the bridge. All the tanks and vehicles that it operates in southern Ukraine use a tremendous amount of fuel. If Russia can't use the bridge, then it creates significant challenges to keep it's forces mobile. I have seen suggestions that Russia could use fuel tankers to ship fuel to Crimea and then transfer it onto rail there, but I don't know how feasible that is in the short term.

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Transhipping from one mode to the other takes time and manpower, thus more costly.

I have not seen evidence of any trains on the "undamaged" track, just statements and a middle of the night video clip on land

EDIT - there is a train ferry but it carries a handful of railcars

Russia was allowing for people with tickets to get refunds as of Oct 8th.

I definitely agree with the "stress relieved" steel structure. The rock ballast under the rail could have protected the steel a good bit but flames shooting out of both sides of the spans tells me that the spans were impacted directly by fire

Yeah, Russia wants to be able to continue to sell the S-400 system that is defending the bridge, so they push the truck bomb nonsense so that people won't realize how ineffective the S-400 is against ATACMS.

Reports and videos have surfaced that far from building up a joint task force in Belarus as the Belarusian President threatened, Russia is moving large amounts of ammo and equipment from Belarus to Crimea.

While this could be a major fake out on the Russians part, it does hold true to what many analysts have been saying in that the Belarusian government cannot survive the domestic fallout of sending Belarusian troops into combat.

Remember that weird looking Russian trenching vehicle I posted a picture of in the last couple of weeks. It’s In the top left of the first photo. Also present in the second photo

https://twitter.com/coupsure/status/1580192286348279809?s=46&t=5GAXlw3uGzinSlh4mxxbsQ

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The Russians are creating a defense line in the Luhasnk Oblast reminiscent of the Second World War. The defensive line consists of two rows of "dragon's teeth", followed by a trench probably meant to stop vehicles, then firing positions for infantry and vehicles.

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Sitting in DFW waiting on flight to Columbus.

This is gold from the Washington Post today:

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Privately, U.S. officials say neither Russia nor Ukraine is capable of winning the war outright, but they have ruled out the idea of pushing or even nudging Ukraine to the negotiating table. They say they do not know what the end of the war looks like, or how it might end or when, insisting that is up to Kyiv.

“That’s a decision for the Ukrainians to make,” a senior State Department official said. “Our job now is to help them be in absolutely the best position militarily on the battlefield … for that day when they do choose to go to the diplomatic table.”

And Ukrainian officials now say they have less appetite to negotiate than ever before, given their recent battlefield successes and Russia’s illegal annexation attempt.

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Oh, ok so we’re sponsoring an endless war we know Ukraine can not win. And they refuse to go to the negotiating table. And they have no idea how this war is going to end. But hey Ukrainians get to dictate the terms for years if this is what it takes while we send lovely gifts from Boeing and Raytheon and just hope that Putin doesn’t lose his shite over it.