re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I would imagine they are haphazardly getting them as far away from their home as possible as quickly as possible and then figure out something..... haphazard is an understatement.

ISW Update

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The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.

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The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization just 24 hours after its September 21 declaration

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Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize any men, regardless of their military status, to meet quota numbers

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The Kremlin will also likely mobilize ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportional rate

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The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to mobilization is prompting public anger and distrust across Russia.

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The Kremlin likely attempted to downplay a prisoner swap with Ukraine that is deeply unpopular among Russian nationalists and milbloggers by undertaking the swap the same day Putin announced partial mobilization.

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The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that it began negotiations to establish a nuclear safety zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Such negotiations are unlikely to significantly ameliorate the situation due to continued Russian efforts to stage provocations at the plant.

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Key Takeaways

The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel, but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.

The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization.

Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize any men, regardless of their military status, to meet quota numbers and will likely incentivize the mobilization of ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportional rate.

The Kremlin likely attempted to downplay a prisoner swap with Ukraine that is deeply unpopular among Russian nationalists and milbloggers by undertaking the swap the same day Putin announced partial mobilization.

IAEA negotiations around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are unlikely to significantly improve the situation at the plant and may provide an information opportunity for Russian forces to stage provocations.

Ukrainian forces likely continued limited counteroffensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and continued attacks toward Lyman on September 22.

Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on September 22 and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operational-level interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast on September 22.

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks west of Hulyaipole on September 22 and continued routine strikes throughout western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian occupation forces are hurriedly setting conditions to hold sham annexation referenda across occupied Ukraine from September 23-27.

Russian officials created polling stations in parts of Russia, ostensibly to enable displaced (in many cases meaning kidnapped) Ukrainian residents of occupied territories to “vote.”

Russian occupation officials in Ukraine likely expect to be forced to provide personnel to meet Russian regional mobilization quotas after the Kremlin annexes occupied Ukrainian territories.

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I'd guess that is because the people of Russia don't see an invasion of Ukraine as a patriotic mission.

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the poli board has more support for Russia than actual Russians

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the poli board

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Edit: removed original post. Don’t want to attract the zoo animals to this thread anymore than has already happened

LINK

I found a really interesting twitter thread on Ukraine's likely plan in the north. I think it's a useful reference as things play out. It's in Dutch, so I'll post what Google Translate has.

He starts with this flowchart:



The top arrow says that the fall of Trots'ke would complicate logistics in northern Luhansk and mean the end of Belgorod as a "war city" supplying the Russian effort.

That's because of the railways.

Look at the map below: the fall of Kupiansk means that Route 1 is now unusable. The fall of Trots'ke (or even putting it under fire control), would mean that Russia would have to use Route 3 to supply northern Luhansk Oblast -- which is untenable.



The second arrow, from Starobils'k, leads to the evacuation of the north of Luhansk Oblast. Ultimately, it probably means a fallback to pre-Feb 24 lines, and it would mark a 2nd major defeat in a short time.

The third arrow, from Severodonetsk, breaks Russian defense in the northern Donbas, threatens the Russian flank of its Donbas offensive, and advances Ukrainian logistics for future attacks on the "peoples' republics."

This guy, Robert Bor, says that (unlike elsewhere) Lyman cannot really be bypassed. He says that Lyman will need to be a Ukrainian base for attacks further east, and that's why Ukraine didn't bypass it to attack Kreminna and/or Svatove.

He also points out that the push towards Trots'ke has already begun, as Ukraine is moving east and the town of Tavil'zhanka is disputed:

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I’ve come to peace that there’s a good chance that’s going to happen

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If Putin was going to nuke Ukraine into submission, then he wouldn't need an extra 300,000 men to try to do it.

If nuking Ukraine were really a serious possibility, then moving 300,000 Russian men into the radiation zone would be a bizarre move.

In short: there's no reason to think that Putin is actually dumb enough to use nukes.

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If it does go nuclear, I expect you all to put on a Roman Triumph for me. I’ve come to peace that there’s a good chance that’s going to happen, but might be a shock for the rest of you.

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Since you have "come to peace" with it, I guess we can expect you to stop posting here as you will be spending your last few days/months out enjoying your remaining time on this Earth right?