re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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After Ukraine retakes Crimea, all Russians who moved there after 2014 should be expelled. Ukraine's military will need the naval bases, but the rest of the peninsula should become an autonomous province, where Tatar language and culture can thrive.

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It’s not just about military bases. The Crimean peninsula extends National territorial water into some very rich deposits of offshore oil and gas. Trillions could be at stake for the country who keeps the peninsula

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Ukraine has needed these for a while, but US logistics can only transport so much at a time, and other needs have been more pressing.

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Yeah. More pressing was the need to correct the force imbalance that the Russians initially enjoyed. The earlier Ukrainian defeat at Luhansk made that obvious.

The lack of offensive mobility has always been of concern to me. The use of the technicals at Kherson was a glaring red flag.

However, I was unaware of the HMMWV's on the horizon until you pointed it out.

ISW's daily update is out. LINK. Highlights of Ukrainian advances:

Northern Offensive

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Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, setting conditions to drive deeper into the Russian rear in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblasts. A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces expelled Russian forces from Sosnove on the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and are fortifying positions at the settlement.[14] The source also reported that Russian forces may have pulled out from Studenok immediately west of Sosnove to avoid encirclement.[15] Official Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces reinforced Russian positions in Lyman.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the heavily reduced remnants of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps 202nd and 204th Motorized Rifle Regiments were disbanded into reserves, possibly meaning that the remnants of these reduced elements reinforced the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS) elements fighting in Lyman.[17]

Ukrainian forces are reportedly advancing across the Oskil River in northern Kharkiv Oblast. A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces are establishing bases and artillery positions throughout Kharkiv Oblast, including emplacing artillery in Hryanykivka on the east bank of the Oskil River near the R79 highway.[18] A confirmed Ukrainian position in Hryanykivka would indicate that the Russian frontline east of the Oskil River is weak and/or that Russian forces’ lines in this area are farther east of the Oskil River than previously assessed. ISW will continue collecting and reconciling data to refine our control of terrain assessment. A Russian source reported that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups occasionally cross the Oskil River in unspecified areas.[19]

Ukrainian forces continued operations to disrupt Russian logistics in eastern Ukraine and pin Russian forces away from the frontlines. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck rear areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast, including Lysychansk, Svitlodarsk, Perevalsk, and Kadiivka, all situated along major Russian GLOCs.[20] Imagery shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian base in Lysychansk.[21] Russian and Ukrainian sources engaged in artillery duels across the Kharkiv-Belgorod Oblast border.[22]

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Kherson Offensive

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Ukrainian military officials are continuing their operational silence regarding the progress of the southern counteroffensive, noting that Ukrainian forces are continuing to improve their tactical positions and are engaged in positional battles.[23] Ukrainian local sources stated that there is no official confirmation that Ukrainian forces have liberated Kyselivka northwest of Kherson City but noted receiving local reports that Russian forces are mining all of the roads in the settlement.[24] Ukrainian officials did not report changes in Russian troop composition, but social media footage showed a Tuva Oblast flag in Beryslav, which likely indicates that Russian forces are continuing to reinforce northern Kherson Oblast with regionally formed volunteer units.[25] Conventional Russian military units typically do not fly republic or federal subject flags.

Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing their interdiction campaign, targeting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) across the Inhulets and Dnipro Rivers.[26] Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces are continuing to transfer equipment across the Dnipro River, however.[27] Ukrainian forces reportedly struck areas of Russian manpower and equipment concentrations in the Kherson City suburbs and in Krynychanka (about 21km southeast of the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River).[28] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces damaged Russian ammunition depots in Sadove (about 15km southwest of Snihurivka) and Mykolaiv and Kherson raions, and struck the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) control center in Komyshany, northwest of Kherson City.[29] Ukraine’s Department of Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian military base in Nova Kakhovka, and local footage and reports corroborated StratCom’s information.[30] Other social media reports noted Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Oleshky, on the left bank of the Dnipro River.[31]

Ukrainian and Russian sources indicated three areas of kinetic activity on September 15: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border west of Vysokopillya. A Russian milblogger claimed that one Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group drove down 25km southeast of the bridgehead to Charivne in a car without encountering any obstacles.[32] The milblogger added that Russian shelling decreased in Sukhyi Stavok (about 12km southeast of the bridgehead) and that Ukrainians are operating helicopters in the area, which may indicate that Russian forces have pulled back further from the bridgehead area. The milblogger noted that Russian forces continue to repel Ukrainian counterattacks on Davydiv Brid on the T2207 highway. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults from Arhanhelske on Ivanivka (west of Vysokopillya), while Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian airborne troops repelled Ukrainian counterattacks on Kostyrka and Novopetrivka.[33] Kherson Oblast Head Yaroslav Yanushevych stated that Ukrainian forces conducted evacuations from Myrolyubivka (southeast of Vysokopillya), which could indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced to the settlement.[34] Both the Russian Defense Ministry and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched missile strikes at Ukrainian positions on the Kherson Oblast border.[35]

Russian-appointed occupation officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a landing at the Kinsburn Spit (a narrow peninsula of the Crimean Peninsula southwest of Kherson City) on September 14, but offered differing accounts. Several milbloggers amplified the claims of a single source that suggested Ukrainian forces conducted an unsuccessful amphibious landing at the Kinsburn Spit with five boats. The source also claimed that there was an unconfirmed report of a heliborne landing at the Iron Port in Lazurne, about 60km southwest of Kherson City.[36] Deputy Head of the Russian occupation administration in Kherson Oblast Kirill Stremousov claimed that Russian forces repelled the attempted landing and killed over 120 Ukrainian airborne troops at the Kinsburn Spit.[37] Another milblogger criticized Stremousov and pointed out that his sources within Russian units in the area did not witness or repel any Ukrainian landing attempts and that Stremousov did not present any visual evidence supporting his claim.[38]

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I thought Ukraine just captured 10k soldiers and are wrecking shop

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Why does this confuse you? US aid is fueling Ukraine’s war. Cut off the aid and Ukraine’s armies will falter. The war was not won last week, but took a very positive turn for Ukraine. If the US cuts off aid tomorrow Russia will conquer all of Ukraine by next spring. Understand?

Not trying to be a Debbie downer but...

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It’s not just about military bases. The Crimean peninsula extends National territorial water into some very rich deposits of offshore oil and gas. Trillions could be at stake for the country who keeps the peninsula

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The oil and gas fields west of Crimea are definitely a jewel. Prior to 2014 Ukraine had a deal with three energy companies to exploit those reserves. When Russia took Crimea they stole all the rigs and equipment from these companies and made it impossible for Ukraine to attract more investment for their remaining O&G fields because it was too risky. If they do take them back I find it highly unlikely that companies are going to line up to get their CAPEX stolen again. If Ukraine takes Crimes Russia will not give up and my estimation will succeed in retaking Crimea as soon as the west loses will/interest to supplement the war.

I hope I am wrong and Ukraine takes back all their land, Georgia kicks Russia out of South Ossetia and Abkhazia along with Moldova booting the Russians out of Trinestria.

I just do not expect Russia to go gently into that good night but rather rage, rage against the dying of the (in their case) darkness. My apologies to D.T.

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I thought they just drove Russia back to Moscow? And wasnt there talk of a Missile Strike on the city

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Because they are targeting St. Petersburg now.
Moscow was too easy.

Since we were discussing transport vehicles, there's more news:

LINK

Germany Agrees to Send 50 "Dingo" Armored Vehicles to Ukraine

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Besides the delivery of the 50 Dingos, the minister also said Berlin would send two additional so-called Mars multiple rocket launchers, on top of the three Germany previously sent.

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Note: the MARS system is very similar to the US M270 (a double HIMARS system on a tracked vehicle).

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The Dingo is an armored vehicle that Germany used, for example, during its military mission in Afghanistan to ensure the safe transport of troops. Crucially, it is not a battle tank, like the Leopard, or an infantry fighting vehicle, like the Marder — both heavier armory that, according to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Berlin would only send to Ukraine if other allies also agree to deliver such Western tanks.

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I fully expect Ukraine to take back the Donbas region they lost in 2014. I'm with you, I hope they can take back Crimea, but I'm not 100% they can. If they cut the bridge, things will get interesting; however, when Russia took Crimea the bridge didn't exist, and they didn't have access through southern Ukraine...so they do know how to supply Crimea via Sea and Air.

Cutting the Kerch bridge would be the biggest escalation of the entire war. I have no doubt Ukraine has at least a small number of long range missiles capable of reaching it but what’s the point of playing that card now when you aren’t ready to take the area. Better to attempt to pincer the East of Ukraine coming south from Kharkiv and come north from Kherson towards Melitopol and slowly squeeze the Russians back to recapture those areas before you go for Crimea.

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Better to attempt to pincer the East of Ukraine coming south from Kharkiv and come north from Kherson towards Melitopol and slowly squeeze the Russians back to recapture those areas before you go for Crimea.

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I agree that splitting the Russian troops around Melitopol or Mariupol is possible.

And Ukraine isn’t going to risk a ton of troops’ lives to rush back into Kherson quickly. They’ve been patient and methodical. So be sure to cut off supplies and force the Russians to realize they can’t hold it.

But the biggest escalations have been perpetrated by Russia.