re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Sept 15th update

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Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, increasingly pressuring Russian positions and logistics lines in eastern Kharkiv, northern Luhansk, and eastern Donetsk oblasts

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The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization rather than setting conditions for general mobilization. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called on all federal subjects to initiate “self-mobilization” and not wait on the Kremlin to declare martial law.

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The defeat around Kharkiv Oblast prompted the Kremlin to announce a Russia-wide recruitment campaign

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The Kremlin has likely abandoned its efforts to shield select federal subjects from recruitment drives, which may increase social tensions

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The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally stationed in Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states.

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Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine.

The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization, rather than setting conditions for general mobilization.

The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally at Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Ukrainian ground attacks northwest of Kharkiv City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.

Russian-appointed occupation officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a landing at the Kinsburn Spit (a narrow peninsula of the Crimean Peninsula).

Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults and are reinforcing positions on the Eastern Axis.

The Russian proxy Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is likely attempting to stop its administrators from fleeing ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the DNR.

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Republican leader in U.S. Senate calls on Biden to send ATACMS to Ukraine
15.09.2022 07:12

U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, who leads the Republican minority in U.S. Senate, has called on the Joe Biden administration to provide more lethal weapons to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS.

Senator McConnell made the statement while speaking in Congress, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

"The Ukrainians need more weapons than what we're giving them. They need to start getting them faster, and they need new capabilities like long-range ATACMS missiles, large drones and tanks," McConnell said.

The U.S. senator underlined that Ukrainian troops "work miracles" manning Western weapons as they have quickly mastered such advanced systems as HIMARS, let alone Javelin and Stinger.

He called on the West not to delay further military support to Ukraine, recalling that previous hesitation in arms supplies cost Ukraine the lives of its citizens.

It should not be just the American weapons that can be delivered to Ukraine, Senator McConnell admitted, while noting that U.S. allies are awaiting signals from Washington in this regard.

He urged President Joe Biden to clearly explain to Western European leaders why they have to contribute to the Ukrainian case significantly and quickly.

UKRINFORM

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Kremlin-linked Russian private military company Wagner Group has been conducting a campaign to recruit Russian convicts for service in Ukraine since at least July. Prisoners have been offered commutation of their sentences as well as cash incentives.

This has been reinvigorated, with recently posted video highly likely showing Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin making a recruitment pitch to prisoners. In the video, Prigozhin emphasises that he is only seeking 'fighters for assault units'. Separately, Russian military academies are shortening training courses and bringing cadets' graduation dates forwards. This is almost certainly so cadets can be deployed to support the Ukraine operation.

The impact of Russia's manpower challenges has become increasingly severe. The acceleration of officer cadets' training, and Wagner's demand for assault troops suggests that two of the most critical shortages within the military manning crisis are probably combat infantry and junior commanders.

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Video of Wagner CEO recruiting tin the prison

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If you desert, we will shoot you

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Mr Prigozhin reveals that prisoners have already been fighting on the frontlines with Wagner, a shadowy private militia group, saying “in the first attack in Ukraine using 40 prisoners, three died and seven were injured”.

He informs them of Wagner’s rules: “No alcohol, and no sex with local women. No desertions or surrender - troops will be issued two hand grenades to blow themselves up if needed.”

'If you serve six months you are free'
Those who join must be between 22 and 50 years of age, although maybe older “if fit”.

“Only two other people can get you out of here, God and Allah, and they’ll do it in a wooden coffin. I can get you out alive,” Mr Prigozhin says by way of a pitch.

“Nobody goes back behind bars,” he continues. “If you serve six months (in Wagner), you are free. If you arrive in Ukraine and decide it’s not for you, we will execute you.”

Russian law does not allow commuting prison sentences for mercenary service in Ukraine, though it is unclear if exceptions can be made in times of war.

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Billions more for Ukraine… Meanwhile the DOJ is suggesting our own soldiers go on food stamps.

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Is either political party making a stink about this? Is any politician threatening to hold up legislation until this is remedied?

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It’s about what the Dems in power elect to do with the money. They could give military pay raises if they wanted to, but they’d rather forgive student loans, build charging stations from coast to coast, enable millions of immigrants, and stop the climate from changing.

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100% and that is ILLEGAL Immigrants/Aliens

Hyperbole Darth.

The Army pays a competitive entry level wage for young soldiers. Are there some who need help? sure, but its the shitbag career PFC who has two kids at home with current wife and pays child support on two others he never sees. Thats not on the Government.

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The aid has already been earmarked. All these announcements are just drawdowns from the overall package.

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Presently, but there is 14 bil in a new appropriation coming down the road.

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Ukraine has indeed suffered from a real shortage of vehicles. That's undoubtedly why last week's aid package from the US included:

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Ukraine could have all the trucks it needed and it wouldn’t help their logistics much. The road network is terrible and the mud season is coming. What Ukraine needs is locomotives. At anyone time 1/4th - 1/3rd of Ukraine’s freight locomotives are in the shop since the vast majority of its locomotives are 50 year old Soviet era locomotives.

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Why do these guys keeping saying "more" or "additional" when they make these vapid argument? The aid has already been earmarked. All these announcements are just drawdowns from the overall package.

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To make it seem like Ukraine is getting more aid than they really are.

Putin pulled Russian Tajik units to Ukraine