- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
2
Posted on 9/14/22 at 6:45 am to GOP_Tiger
Isw update Sept 13th
quote:
The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
quote:
Kremlin sources are now working to clear Putin of any responsibility for the defeat, instead blaming the loss of almost all of occupied Kharkiv Oblast on underinformed military advisors within Putin’s circle.
quote:
Several members of the Russian State Duma expressed concern about the dire situation on the frontlines in Ukraine during the Duma’s first plenary meeting of its autumn session on September 13.
quote:
The Kremlin is likely seeking to use the defeat in Kharkiv to facilitate crypto mobilization efforts.
quote:
Nothing in the Duma bill suggests that Putin is preparing to order general mobilization, and it is far from clear that he could do so quickly.
quote:
The Kremlin has adopted narratives that echo longstanding milblogger demands and complaints, suggesting that Putin seeks to appease and win back the critical milblogger community rather than censor it
quote:
Russia’s defeat in Kharkiv Oblast is causing panic among Russians in occupied Ukrainian territories, servicemen, and milbloggers.
quote:
Russia’s military failures in Ukraine are likely continuing to weaken Russia’s leverage in the former Soviet Union
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Kremlin has recognized its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first defeat Russia has acknowledged in this war.
The Kremlin is deflecting blame from Russian President Vladimir Putin and attributing it instead to his military advisors.
The Kremlin is likely seeking to use the defeat in Kharkiv to facilitate crypto mobilization efforts by intensifying patriotic rhetoric and discussions about fuller mobilization while revisiting a Russian State Duma bill allowing the military to send call-ups for the regular semiannual conscription by mail. Nothing in the Duma bill suggests that Putin is preparing to order general mobilization, and it is far from clear that he could do so quickly in any case.
The successful Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkiv Oblast is prompting Russian servicemen, occupation authorities, and milbloggers to panic.
Russia’s military failures in Ukraine are likely continuing to weaken Russia’s leverage in the former Soviet Union as Russia appears unwilling to enforce a violated ceasefire it brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan or to allow Armenia to invoke provisions of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization in its defense.
Ukrainian troops likely continued ground attacks along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line in northern Donetsk Oblast and may be conducting limited ground attacks across the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian and Ukrainian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces are continuing ground maneuvers in three areas of Kherson Oblast as part of the ongoing southern counter-offensive.
Russian troops made incremental gains south of Bakhmut and continued ground attacks throughout Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces provided the first visual evidence of Russian forces using an Iranian-made drone in Ukraine on September 13.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 6:50 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 September 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russia has highly likely deployed Iranian uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) in Ukraine for the first time. On 13 September 2022, Ukrainian officials reported that their forces had shot down a Shahed-136 UAV near Kupiansk, in the area of Ukraine's successful ongoing offensive.
The Shahed-136 is a one-way attack UAV with a claimed range of 2,500 kilometres. Similar Iranian-manufactured systems have likely been used in attacks in the Middle East, including against the oil tanker MT MERCER STREET in July 2021.
Russia is almost certainly increasingly sourcing weaponry from other heavily sanctioned states like Iran and North Korea as its own stocks dwindle. The loss of a Shahed-136 near the front lines suggests there is a realistic possibility that Russia is attempting to use the system to conduct tactical strikes rather than against more strategic targets farther into Ukrainian territory.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 September 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russia has highly likely deployed Iranian uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) in Ukraine for the first time. On 13 September 2022, Ukrainian officials reported that their forces had shot down a Shahed-136 UAV near Kupiansk, in the area of Ukraine's successful ongoing offensive.
The Shahed-136 is a one-way attack UAV with a claimed range of 2,500 kilometres. Similar Iranian-manufactured systems have likely been used in attacks in the Middle East, including against the oil tanker MT MERCER STREET in July 2021.
Russia is almost certainly increasingly sourcing weaponry from other heavily sanctioned states like Iran and North Korea as its own stocks dwindle. The loss of a Shahed-136 near the front lines suggests there is a realistic possibility that Russia is attempting to use the system to conduct tactical strikes rather than against more strategic targets farther into Ukrainian territory.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:16 am to cypher
Oh the Zelensky haters are not going to like this.
LINK
There are new rumors of additional Russian war crimes from the newly liberated areas.
quote:
President Zelensky visits liberated Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. “We are moving in one direction - towards victory,” said Zelensky. The city of Izium was liberated by the Armed Forces on Sept. 10 during the country’s lightning counteroffensive.
LINK
There are new rumors of additional Russian war crimes from the newly liberated areas.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:20 am to WeeWee
Are both of these Russian satellites? If so, why would they be fighting?
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:23 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
A Russian Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare system was captured by Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv Oblast.
LINK
Damn I bet Americans and NATO intel ppl jizzed their pants at capturing that thing intact. Going to provide lots of valuable information to help keep our troops alive if/when we go to war with Iran or North Korea.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:24 am to jeffsdad
Both are members of CIS, yet Tajikistan is affiliated with NATO in Partnership for Peace, not a full member
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:39 am to cypher
The very best coverage of the last couple of weeks I have read. Highly recommend it.
With successful Kharkiv operation, Ukraine turns the war in its favor
September 13, 2022 11:20 pm
by Illia Ponomarenko
KHARKIV – In warfare, there's no such thing as a miracle.
Yet what happened in early September in the east of Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast may ascend in history as the Miracle on the Oskil River.
Within a few days, a Ukrainian strike prompted the collapse of the Russian front in the region.
To escape a crushing defeat, the Kremlin’s forces were forced to withdraw in a stampede from the territory they had held since March.
Much more at...
The Kyiv Independent Article
With successful Kharkiv operation, Ukraine turns the war in its favor
September 13, 2022 11:20 pm
by Illia Ponomarenko
KHARKIV – In warfare, there's no such thing as a miracle.
Yet what happened in early September in the east of Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast may ascend in history as the Miracle on the Oskil River.
Within a few days, a Ukrainian strike prompted the collapse of the Russian front in the region.
To escape a crushing defeat, the Kremlin’s forces were forced to withdraw in a stampede from the territory they had held since March.
Much more at...
The Kyiv Independent Article
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:43 am to TigerDoc
quote:
but captured RU troops may number in 10s of thousands.
Have we gotten pictures of all these Troops that surrendered?
10k is a lot and I would imagine Zelensky would be getting a Mag cover shot with that many captured
Anyone able to get conformation?
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:54 am to cypher
Another Oligarch lost his balance
These Russians really need to stop being drunk and lose their balance
These Russians really need to stop being drunk and lose their balance
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:59 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Have we gotten pictures of all these Troops that surrendered?
10k is a lot and I would imagine Zelensky would be getting a Mag cover shot with that many captured
Anyone able to get conformation?
Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Captured troops from the Kharkiv offensive are less than a thousand, from everything that I've read. The "10k" number came from Chuck Pfarrer, who has published rumors as fact a number of times in this conflict. He's a useful source of "RUMINT," but that's how his stuff needs to be treated.
This post was edited on 9/14/22 at 8:48 am
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:03 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Unfortunately, that didn't happen.
I for one am shocked that Chromedome would post an unconfirmed report
quote:
That number came from Chuck Pfarrer, who has published rumors as fact a number of times in this conflict. He's a useful source of "RUMINT," but that's how his stuff needs to be treated.
I had a feeling this was the case
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:06 am to WeeWee
quote:
Oh the Zelensky haters are not going to like this. quote:President Zelensky visits liberated Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. “We are moving in one direction - towards victory,” said Zelensky. The city of Izium was liberated by the Armed Forces on Sept. 10 during the country’s lightning counteroffensive.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:21 am to REG861
quote:
News from the fronts: Belgorod Front - numerous shelling of military and civilian facilities in the border area of ??the Russian Federation. Oskol Front - no recent data. The front along the Seversky Donets - fighting continues north of Svyatogorsk, in the Liman region and in the forests of the river bend southwest of Kremennaya. Direction Soledar-Bakhmut (Artemovsk) - it is alleged that yesterday the Wagner managed to make significant progress in the vicinity of Bakhmut. I don’t know how much this information is true - I don’t know (maybe it does, but an offensive "in the operational shadow" of large enemy strike groups hanging from the flanks, in my opinion, is a senseless (if not worse) waste of forces). Donetsk front - no change. Fighting in Maryinka, 2/3 of the village - under the Armed Forces of Ukraine, attempts by the Armed Forces of the DPR to advance there - have not had any results for several weeks. The enemy continued to heavily shell residential areas of Donetsk and Gorlovka and other settlements. In the Dokuchaevsky direction, the enemy bombarded the positions of the DPR Armed Forces units with shells all day yesterday, but did not attack. From the Zaporozhye Front, apart from reports of the accumulation of enemy forces, no information was received. Positional battles continued on the Kherson front. There was a search (reconnaissance in force) of insignificant enemy forces in the direction of Davydov Brod. In general: On all fronts, the enemy is preparing to attack and is pulling up additional forces. Personally, I cautiously assume it is likely: the main attack on the Zaporozhye front, auxiliary - between Donetsk and Gorlovskaya, in the Dokuchaevsk region, in the Berislav direction of the Kherson front, and also directly in the Kherson region. I do not know the timing of the offensive, but I believe that it will hardly give our troops time to strengthen their positions and regroup troops in the threatened areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
I don’t know how true this assessment is, but it’s interesting nonetheless. The Ukrainians sources have been more subdued recently.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:44 am to Athanatos
quote:
I don’t know how true this assessment is, but it’s interesting nonetheless. The Ukrainians sources have been more subdued recently.
Is that report from a Russian or Ukrainian source? It's writing suggests a Russian aligned source, but there is no link. Could you please post the link?
EDIT: Thank you for the link. It is the Telegram channel of Strelkov Igor Ivanovich, aa/k/a Igor Girkin, a Russian who is both critical of the Russian operation and who also refers to the Russian retreat as a "strategic regrouping." Just so we know.
This post was edited on 9/14/22 at 10:43 am
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:46 am to GOP_Tiger
The Economist reporter Shashank Joshi: LINK
I've been thinking a lot about this myself. The Kharkiv offensive was so successful that it is forcing the Ukrainian leadership to make difficult choices, in a good way. In particular, the recovery of so much intact Russian equipment and ammo means that their reserves of ammo and equipment were nicely enhanced.
What should/will Ukraine do next?
1) They could concentrate on exploiting their recent gains in Kharkiv Oblast by crossing the Oskil River in forces, cutting the remaining supply lines from Belgorod, and then work east and then south, cutting off Russian forces as they go. The recapture of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk would be a huge blow to Russian morale, and then they could possibly even cut off the city of Donetsk.
The advantage to attempting this is that Russia has consistently shown they react and respond slowly. Because Putin has shown such eagerness in firing officers, decisions that should be made at the operational level often get pushed up through the Kremlin, so that officers in the field aren't on the hook for the consequences.
Pushing east from the Oskil River and cutting the remaining supply lines from Belgorod would force Russia to completely reconfigure its supply structure inside Russia, and it's likely that would not happen quickly. It might be possible to completely collapse Russian forces in the Donbas.
One of the lessons from the Kharkiv assault is that once the Russian front was pierced with an small armored group, Ukrainian forces were able to quickly push deep behind those lines with Humvees and ATGMs. Russia still lacks infantry, and Ukraine is going to have the advantage in any fight that allows for maneuverability and negates Russian artillery.
The disadvantage, of course, is that this would set up a high risk of a Russian counterstroke that could wipe out the Ukrainian assault. The further east that Ukrainian forces push, the longer their own supply lines get -- but that's also why taking the rail hub at Kupiansk is such a crucial victory.
2) Ukraine could simply reinforce its Kherson offensive, which is making very slow but steady progress. There are a number of reports that Ukraine is taking high casualties in this fight. It's true that Russia cannot resupply its forces in Kherson Oblast and they will eventually collapse, but putting more pressure on them would likely cause them to collapse much faster.
Kherson is the largest city that Russia occupied in its invasion this year, and Putin has foolishly committed massive forces to defending it -- when it's ultimately indefensible. Since Russia will be unable to get its armor and vehicles across the Dnipro, the defeat of Russian forces here would be a crippling blow to Russian military power.
3) Ukraine could push from Zaporizhzhia towards Tokmak and Melitopol. As I have said, if successful, this would allow Ukraine to turn off the water to Crimea and put many Crimean installations in HIMARS range. It would also collapse Russian forces at Kherson.
Russia has been afraid of this, and reports are that they have sent an additional 4-6 BTGs to defend this area.
4) Russian Telegram channels have been, for the last week or so, sounding the alarm over a buildup of Ukrainian forces near Yuhledar. There have been multiple reports of Ukrainian forces removing mines in the area, which could be the prelude to an offensive that could strike south towards Mariupol. This would accomplish many of the same goals as an assault towards Melitopol, and I have not yet seen reports of Russia reinforcing this region. In the case of the Kharkiv attack, Russian intelligence knew about the Ukrainian buildup in the area, but the Russian command did nothing (again, reflecting the many layers of decision-making that now exist), and it appears that something like that might be happening again.
quote:
Western official on Ukrainian reserves: "I don't want to speak too much about the Ukr reserves for obvious reasons, except to say they are making choices about what to reinforce and they do have some elements held in in reserve..like the Russias, they are posed with a dilemma"
I've been thinking a lot about this myself. The Kharkiv offensive was so successful that it is forcing the Ukrainian leadership to make difficult choices, in a good way. In particular, the recovery of so much intact Russian equipment and ammo means that their reserves of ammo and equipment were nicely enhanced.
What should/will Ukraine do next?
1) They could concentrate on exploiting their recent gains in Kharkiv Oblast by crossing the Oskil River in forces, cutting the remaining supply lines from Belgorod, and then work east and then south, cutting off Russian forces as they go. The recapture of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk would be a huge blow to Russian morale, and then they could possibly even cut off the city of Donetsk.
The advantage to attempting this is that Russia has consistently shown they react and respond slowly. Because Putin has shown such eagerness in firing officers, decisions that should be made at the operational level often get pushed up through the Kremlin, so that officers in the field aren't on the hook for the consequences.
Pushing east from the Oskil River and cutting the remaining supply lines from Belgorod would force Russia to completely reconfigure its supply structure inside Russia, and it's likely that would not happen quickly. It might be possible to completely collapse Russian forces in the Donbas.
One of the lessons from the Kharkiv assault is that once the Russian front was pierced with an small armored group, Ukrainian forces were able to quickly push deep behind those lines with Humvees and ATGMs. Russia still lacks infantry, and Ukraine is going to have the advantage in any fight that allows for maneuverability and negates Russian artillery.
The disadvantage, of course, is that this would set up a high risk of a Russian counterstroke that could wipe out the Ukrainian assault. The further east that Ukrainian forces push, the longer their own supply lines get -- but that's also why taking the rail hub at Kupiansk is such a crucial victory.
2) Ukraine could simply reinforce its Kherson offensive, which is making very slow but steady progress. There are a number of reports that Ukraine is taking high casualties in this fight. It's true that Russia cannot resupply its forces in Kherson Oblast and they will eventually collapse, but putting more pressure on them would likely cause them to collapse much faster.
Kherson is the largest city that Russia occupied in its invasion this year, and Putin has foolishly committed massive forces to defending it -- when it's ultimately indefensible. Since Russia will be unable to get its armor and vehicles across the Dnipro, the defeat of Russian forces here would be a crippling blow to Russian military power.
3) Ukraine could push from Zaporizhzhia towards Tokmak and Melitopol. As I have said, if successful, this would allow Ukraine to turn off the water to Crimea and put many Crimean installations in HIMARS range. It would also collapse Russian forces at Kherson.
Russia has been afraid of this, and reports are that they have sent an additional 4-6 BTGs to defend this area.
4) Russian Telegram channels have been, for the last week or so, sounding the alarm over a buildup of Ukrainian forces near Yuhledar. There have been multiple reports of Ukrainian forces removing mines in the area, which could be the prelude to an offensive that could strike south towards Mariupol. This would accomplish many of the same goals as an assault towards Melitopol, and I have not yet seen reports of Russia reinforcing this region. In the case of the Kharkiv attack, Russian intelligence knew about the Ukrainian buildup in the area, but the Russian command did nothing (again, reflecting the many layers of decision-making that now exist), and it appears that something like that might be happening again.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:58 am to TBoy
Posted on 9/14/22 at 9:04 am to RLDSC FAN
Colonel Markus Reisner's (Theresan Military Academy - Austria) YT recap of the recent UAF counter offensives. The 14:01 minute video affirms the Russian breakdown in Kharkiv, but dispels the notion of a similar occurrence in Kherson.
Seems to be the last of his unvarnished Russo-Ukrainian videos and analysis due to his current commitments.
Seems to be the last of his unvarnished Russo-Ukrainian videos and analysis due to his current commitments.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 9:40 am to Athanatos
quote:
Telegram Link
I believe that is Igor Girkin AKA Igor Ivanovich Strelkov
EDIT: didn't see TBoy's post above.
This post was edited on 9/14/22 at 9:42 am
Posted on 9/14/22 at 10:01 am to GOP_Tiger
Ukrainian risk of Russian counter, counter offensive is likely mitigated by western intelligence and the US and UK in particular. If Russia masses troops anywhere Ukraine will not be surprised by it.
Page 1728 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News