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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:08 pm to AU86
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:08 pm to AU86
quote:
Apparently the fight for Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia has started again. Russia placed "peace keeping forces" stationed on border territory there after the 2020 conflict. Looks like Azerbaijan means to finish the job this time and reclaim all of its territory it failed to secure in 2020. Russia is more allied with Armenia while Turkey backs Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has used Turkish drones to great affect.
Not going to lie, my sympathies lie very much with the Armenians on this one.
0
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:08 pm to WeeWee
I would agree with your friend’s tactical view of the situation. This will not be won with tanks it’s going to be won with artillery and surgical HIMARS strikes followed up by infantry to cut off and encircle the Russians in Kherson. Armor has its place and Ukraine is actually in good shape with a lot of tanks but they are vulnerable to air attacks. This is why your friend is correct when he said they need more fighters and AA systems to help neutralize Russia’s ability to hit from the air with their SU-25 ground attack aircraft. The difference just 2 squadrons of F-16’s would make to Ukraine being able to keep Russia’s Air Force away from the front lines is immeasurable. That is one resource that we have plenty of and can give to the Ukrainians without downgrading our own forces at all but would make all the difference for them. This is why I believe they should be sending pilots to the US right now to start learning proper tactics so when the deal goes through they are ready for combat. They can learn to fly the F-16 in a matter of a week or two but it’s the tactics that will take time to learn and practice. If they started right now they would have trained F-16 pilots by December.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:23 pm to cypher
Russians announce the bridge will open at 18:08 03/08/2022 and explosions were heard at 00:00 04/08/2022. It did not take long foe Ukraine to decide that the bridge needed to remain closed. 
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:37 pm to WeeWee
Huge OZON warehouse near Moscow on fire. OZON is the Russian equivalent of Amazon.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:39 pm to WeeWee
quote:
It did not take long foe Ukraine to decide that the bridge needed to remain closed.
Gotta keep the ferries runnin'.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:41 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I would agree with your friend’s tactical view of the situation. This will not be won with tanks it’s going to be won with artillery and surgical HIMARS strikes followed up by infantry to cut off and encircle the Russians in Kherson. Armor has its place and Ukraine is actually in good shape with a lot of tanks but they are vulnerable to air attacks. This is why your friend is correct when he said they need more fighters and AA systems to help neutralize Russia’s ability to hit from the air with their SU-25 ground attack aircraft.
It is not even the Russian aircraft that is the problem. They learned how to defeat the Russian Su25s and other attack planes on the first day of the invasion. According to my friend, when they are deployed they have at least 15-20 MANPADs ready to fire at all times. Then they figures out how to MANPADs mounted on vehicles and AAA mounted on vehicles with computer aiming technology keeps and that keeps planes off their back. No airplane can survive a gun run on armor when it would get swarmed by MANPADs and AAA the second it starts its run. The Americans who were teaching them were very impressed and highly doubted that even the A10 could survive the MANPAD swarms that they were hitting the Russian jets with.
According to my friend, it's the damn cruise missiles and drones bombing bridges and stuff. He got his 21 tank to tank kills back in March - June. When the fighting was near Kyiv and Kharkiv the Ukrainian SAMs could protect the tanks and attempt the cities from Russian cruise missile strikes. Ever since they have moved to the south the Russian Air Force has kept the tanks off the battlefield because Ukraine does not have enough SAMs to protect the major cities and protect the troops and tanks and infrastructure. Ukraine choose to use its SAMs to try and protect the cities from cruise missiles and protect the infrastructure from drones. If the USA/NATO supplies SAMs to protect the cities the Ukrainians can move their SAMs to neutralize the Russian Air Force (this includes their drones) then Ukraine can go balls to the wall. It will have the option of getting behind the Russians in Kherson, going at Crimea (which it probably won't do) or turn advance on Donetsk from the south in which case it would avoid the Russian fortifications. If Russia tries to stop them then it will have to weaken its line somewhere else which Ukraine can exploit since its reserves are sitting in the middle of the conflict arch and have good rail and good road (well good for a fsu country) connections and can reach any point on the front in less than 48 hours.
quote:
The difference just 2 squadrons of F-16’s would make to Ukraine being able to keep Russia’s Air Force away from the front lines is immeasurable. That is one resource that we have plenty of and can give to the Ukrainians without downgrading our own forces at all but would make all the difference for them. This is why I believe they should be sending pilots to the US right now to start learning proper tactics so when the deal goes through they are ready for combat. They can learn to fly the F-16 in a matter of a week or two but it’s the tactics that will take time to learn and practice. If they started right now they would have trained F-16 pilots by December.
My friend says that would the Ukrainian flyers would jizz themselves if they could get F16s but they would settle for Migs.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 8:59 pm
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:42 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Huge OZON warehouse near Moscow on fire. OZON is the Russian equivalent of Amazon.
Are there any No Smoking signs in Russia at all?
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:49 pm to WeeWee
I haven't seen it posted here but assume everyone already knows the US Senate voted 95-1 to ratify Finland's and Sweden's NATO application. Josh Hawley was the single no vote, Rand Paul voted present.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:53 pm to Obtuse1
Ferries right next to a bridge? Don't let BT ppl see that or they will get some kind of jelly.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:55 pm to WeeWee
That’s pretty bold. I’d blow their NG pipelines in several places. Sacrifice some troops attacking across the border, force them to pull back, then break it off in their arse
Posted on 8/3/22 at 9:02 pm to Capt ST
quote:
That’s pretty bold. I’d blow their NG pipelines in several places. Sacrifice some troops attacking across the border, force them to pull back, then break it off in their arse
Per my sauce(s) in Ukrainian intelligence. The Ukies and the Russians have an informal truce natural gas and nuclear facilities will not be intentionally targeted. The Ukies will want the pipeline operating when the war is over so they can collect revenue from transit fees. The Russians will want them operating to sell NG to Europe. No body wants any kind of bang at a nuclear power plant for obvious reasons.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 9:45 pm to WeeWee
ISW Update
quote:
Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine, likely in an effort to degrade Western will to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
quote:
Russian forces likely set fire to the prison complex holding Ukrainian POWs in occupied Donetsk Oblast but blamed Ukraine for an alleged precision strike using Western-supplied military equipment, likely to deter additional Western military support to Ukraine.
quote:
The Kremlin is likely continuing efforts to leverage its relationship with Tehran in order to receive drones for use in Ukraine.
quote:
The Russian Defense Ministry has altered the focus of its reporting after the fall of Lysychansk, likely to orient on narratives that resonate positively with milbloggers and war correspondents rather than those that draw criticism from that community.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine, attempting to thereby degrade the will of Western powers to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russian forces likely set fire to the prison complex holding Ukrainian POWs in occupied Donetsk Oblast but blamed Ukraine for an alleged precision strike using Western-supplied military equipment, likely to increase US hesitancy to continue providing HIMARS to Ukraine.
Moscow is likely continuing efforts to leverage its relationship with Tehran in order to secure drones for use in Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northwest of Slovyansk and continued efforts to advance on Bakhmut from the northeast, east, and southeast.
Russian forces are prioritizing frontal assaults on Avdiivka and failed to gain ground in Pisky.
Russian forces are reportedly forming a strike group to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensives in northern Kherson Oblast or counterattack against them.
Russian occupation authorities may allow both in-person and online voting in upcoming pseudo-referenda on the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory into Russia, enabling more straightforward Russian vote rigging.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 10:21 pm to WeeWee
I think it’s going to happen. The west clearly is ready to give the Ukrainians a western fighter they just don’t know which airframe they are going to decide to send. It’s between the F-16, the French Rafale, the Eurofighter and the Swedish Gripen. I think it’s going to be an easy decision though. The F-16 has been produced in large numbers so spare parts are never going to be a problem and most importantly it’s the most diverse of those aircraft in the different missions it can be used for. It also helps that the Falcon is a pretty easy aircraft to fly fighter-wise so it wouldn’t be a problem teaching Ukrainian pilots to fly them. No question though they need aircraft now and MIG-29’s or SU-27’s would be the obvious planes to go after right now. Hopefully they can scrape together a few from their neighbors.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:02 pm to Obtuse1
I've been getting some work done this evening and saw that befpre coming here. I checked Poli board to see if heads were exploding first.
IMO voting Present is a coward's way out
IMO voting Present is a coward's way out
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 11:37 pm
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:01 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Ukraine's missile and artillery units continue to target Russian military strongholds, personnel clusters, logistical support bases and ammunition depots which will highly likely impact Russian military logistical resupply and put pressure on Russian military combat support elements.
On 03 August 2022, the first vessel with Ukrainian grain arrived at the Bosphorus Strait having transited the Black Sea from Odesa. It is almost certain the success of this transit will result in more frequent transits in both directions. Clearing the backlog caused by the blockade that has been in place since February 2022 will remain a logistical challenge.
Russian forces have almost certainly positioned pyramidal radar reflectors in the water near the recently damaged Antonivskiy Bridge and by the recently damaged nearby rail bridge, both of which cross over the Dnipro River in Kherson, southern Ukraine. The radar reflectors are likely being used to hide the bridge from synthetic aperture radar imagery and possible, missile targeting equipment. This highlights the threat Russia feels from the increased range and precision of Western-supplied systems,
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Ukraine's missile and artillery units continue to target Russian military strongholds, personnel clusters, logistical support bases and ammunition depots which will highly likely impact Russian military logistical resupply and put pressure on Russian military combat support elements.
On 03 August 2022, the first vessel with Ukrainian grain arrived at the Bosphorus Strait having transited the Black Sea from Odesa. It is almost certain the success of this transit will result in more frequent transits in both directions. Clearing the backlog caused by the blockade that has been in place since February 2022 will remain a logistical challenge.
Russian forces have almost certainly positioned pyramidal radar reflectors in the water near the recently damaged Antonivskiy Bridge and by the recently damaged nearby rail bridge, both of which cross over the Dnipro River in Kherson, southern Ukraine. The radar reflectors are likely being used to hide the bridge from synthetic aperture radar imagery and possible, missile targeting equipment. This highlights the threat Russia feels from the increased range and precision of Western-supplied systems,
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:20 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Part of me wonders if that's the plan, the south is a feint to draw Russian combat power away from other fronts.
I've wondered myself. It would be a Schwarzkopf level feint if so.
The lowest form of scholarship is prediction. That being said...
The Ukrainians have certainly telegraphed Kherson. Strategically sound because Kherson is virtually intact, is important economically for reconstruction, and denies Russia the foothold in the South.
The dogs of war have been gnawing on Ukraine and Russia alike... with force degradation on both sides of the equation. Absent the element of surprise, any battle for Kherson would come down to pure military superiority.
Ukraine has instituted their version of levée en masse, so it would seem that they could muster the manpower. However, my impression is that Ukraine lacks infantry vehicles and personnel carriers, reliant instead on civilian transportation for troops. If so - limited protected mobility, and it's hard to see them being able to exploit any potential breakthrough in Russian defensive positions.
IF the Ukrainians can indeed muster a counter offensive ahead of any Russian political annexations, it probably wouldn't appear brilliant or flashy, but instead reflect a slow grind of attrition, same as that employed by Russia.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:28 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine, likely in an effort to degrade Western will to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russia is using the nuclear power plant because they know that is the one place that Ukraine won’t attack. Russia doesn’t have the balls to do anything there because it would poison the water supply to Crimea.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:35 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
I think it’s going to happen. The west clearly is ready to give the Ukrainians a western fighter they just don’t know which airframe they are going to decide to send. It’s between the F-16, the French Rafale, the Eurofighter and the Swedish Gripen. I think it’s going to be an easy decision though.
The F16 and the F18 are the only two 4th generation fighters with enough airplanes in storage to make a difference. The USAF has hundreds of F16s in storage and the US marines just retired the F18 A/B models last year. So it will be one of those two airframes.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:47 am to CitizenK
quote:
IMO voting Present is a coward's way out
na...its the political way of saying no but without having your name attached to it as a no. IMO its a win for Paul becuase it means he is learning to play the political game some when he knows he cant win.
I love Rand and Thomas Massie. As much as I hate Russia, in many ways Rand is right in the fact we cant really afford all of this aid. Im of the opinion the fricktards were going to spend the money anyways, might as well spend it trying to bring down russia. If it was a conservative president who actually was trying to cut spending...that would be different. but the current regime is going to spend it like crazy anyways, might as well be on something worth investing in and not some tranny show.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:47 am to WeeWee
quote:
The F16 and the F18 are the only two 4th generation fighters with enough airplanes in storage to make a difference. The USAF has hundreds of F16s in storage and the US marines just retired the F18 A/B models last year. So it will be one of those two airframes.
i hope we give them lots of 16s and 18s and let them frick shite up.
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