re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 3 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

As a result of a Ukrainian strike against a Russian ammunition train in Kherson oblast, southern Ukraine, it is highly unlikely the rail link connecting Kherson with Crimea remains operational. Russian forces are likely to repair the railway line within a few days, although it will remain a vulnerability for Russian forces and their logistical resupply route from Crimea into Kherson.

Russia has promoted the ferry crossing recently established to replace the damaged Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnipro River in Kherson for civilian use, However, Russian military forces will almost certainly utilise it for troop movements and logistical resupply.

It is likely we will see an increase in civilians attempting to flee Kherson and the surrounding area as hostilities continue and food shortages worsen. This will create pressure on transport nodes and routes, likely resulting in measures to control movement being implemented.

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50% of this board thinks the earth is flat

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100% of this board believes that you are just a grumpy poster who is going through a mid-life crisis and your hemorrhoids are flaring up so you have decided to be a pain in everyone else's arse.

Update on the current status of each front. If you want to zoom into the maps, right-click, download them, then open them locally with your favorite image viewer.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1554647160804851712

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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 148-158. The last 10-days of July saw the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF) offensive in northern Donetsk stall while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) make incremental gains in Kherson as they prepare for a counteroffensive.

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Northern Front Update

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3/ Kharkiv OD. The Kharkiv OD remains an important disruption zone for the SVRF & ZSU. Intense positional engagements continue all along the Forward Line of Troops (FLOT) with increased Russian raids against likely lightly defended ZSU sectors.

4/ It is likely these probing actions are meant to determine an ideal location for the employment of recently reconstituted/refitted units in the Belgorod area. It is unlikely that new Russian offensive action will make gains that would affect ZSU actions on other fronts.

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Eastern Front Update

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5/ Donetsk Oblast OD. The SVRF has not made any meaningful progress against the ZSU defensive line along the T0513 Highway from Siversk to Bakhmut. Russian forces have had their greatest success in the Bakhmut & Avdiivka areas and are likely to be the focus for the VSRF

6/ Given that the SVRF has begun to move forces out of the Donetsk OD to reinforce the Kherson-Odesa OD it is likely that Russian forces may transition to a general defense in Donetsk with limited offensive action concentrated south of Bakhmut.

7/ The shift of focus south gives the ZSU an opportunity to conduct targeted counterattacks at weakened points of the line of contact to regain key terrain and place Russian units in a position of relative disadvantage once they renew large-scale operations.

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Central Front (Weastern End of the Eastern Front

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8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. The most intense action remains artillery duels between ZSU & SVRF batteries all along the forward line of troops. The VKS has increased its air & missile strikes of ZSU defensive positions, especially south of Zaporizhzhia in the Vasylivka-Orikhiv area.

9/ Russia’s greatest concern in this OD is countering Ukrainian Partisans & precision artillery strikes. Russian occupation authorities need the SVRF to exercise greater control of captured territory ahead of any fall referendums that seek to lay claim Ukrainian territory.

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Kherson Front update

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10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Russian & Ukrainian artillery are engaged in a duel to cause maximum damage to command posts, critical infrastructure, supply & ammo depots, key lines of communication, and air defense systems ahead of a highly anticipated ZSU counteroffensive.

11/ However, with the amount of forces the Russians are seemingly shifting toward Kherson the likelihood of a ZSU counteroffensive securing substantial gains or even pushing the Russians out of Kherson is unlikely.

12/ Still, drawing large amounts of Russian forces and logistical resources from elsewhere creates opportunities to throw the Russian war effort from its center of gravity so that Ukrainian forces can exploit tactical missteps and turn them into a strategic rout.

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Black Sea Area Update

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13/ Black Sea OTMO. The past two weeks have seen a steady decrease in Russian Navy (VMF) activity in the NW Black Sea. Russian surface naval vessels have generally kept close to the Crimean coast or remained in the Sea of Azov.

14/ The bulk of the Russian Black Seas Fleet has remained at port in Sevastopol & Novorossiysk. The Russian Navy appears increasingly reluctant to risk its surface vessels coming in range of Ukrainian anti-ship missile batteries.

15/ Until the Russians have implemented more effective tactics and procedures to protect its surface fleet from anti-ship missiles it will maintain an ineffective standoff approach to interdict Ukrainian activity in the west Black Sea region.

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Air Superiority Update

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16/ Ukraine SVKO. Russian SVKO activity has slightly increased west of the Dnieper River to disrupt and degrade ZSU logistical support to forward deployed units in the Donbas and throughout southern Ukraine.

17/ However, VKS strikes remain limited to fixed locations and not on more lucrative mobile high value targets that could be more damaging to the ZSU. The VKS continues its campaign against ZSU air defenses in the Odesa region.

18/ Russian forces still struggle to adapt to improved ZSU precision artillery strikes, further slowing the pace of unit resupply as logistics convoys have long lead times as they depart rail stations in order to avoid targeting by Ukrainian artillery.

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The same ones who are overtly pro Russia, what a coincidence.

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Just listened to a UK based war reporter on the "Time's Radio" YouTube channel. He said there is just massive evidence of war crimes perpetrated by the Russians. Many civilians targeted and executed. They have been executed while driving and adults and children have been killed. They have been targeted in buildings. He says it points the the lack of discipline and absolute lack of any conscience on the Russia side. So anyone who is overtly pro Russian would approve of these atrocities I'm guessing.

Writer also said the Ukrainians will take a lot of territory back in the fall/winter if we continue to arm them.

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If you want to zoom into the maps, right-click, download them, then open them locally with your favorite image viewer.

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If you want to save a few clicks and don't care about saving a local copy for future reference, you can right-click and Open image in new tab. Image will be resized to fit the browser window but you just click to zoom in to full-res.

Thanks for the tip, I didn't know that!

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If you want to save a few clicks and don't care about saving a local copy for future reference, you can right-click and Open image in new tab. Image will be resized to fit the browser window but you just click to zoom in to full-res.

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Russia’s greatest concern in this OD is countering Ukrainian Partisans & precision artillery strikes. Russian occupation authorities need the SVRF to exercise greater control of captured territory ahead of any fall referendums that seek to lay claim Ukrainian territory.

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Why would Russia need to have greater control over the occupied parts of Ukraine before any elections? According to Putin and the pro-Russian supporters on this board prior to the invasion, Ukraine was not and is not a legitimate country, and Ukrainians are just Russians who do not believe that they are Russian. How has Russia not been able to convince those people that they are not who they say they are and are actually Russians instead?

Putin baws told us that Ukrainians wanted to be Russian.

Damn! If the Ukrainians breakthrough the defensive works and the 3rd MRB Wagner PMB positions around the Vasylivka. The only thing the Russians would have to stop the Ukrainians from reaching Melitopol would be 1 reserve mechanized brigade and 1 reserve BTG made up of T62s. If I was the Ukrainians I would take the 5th armor brigade that they have chilling in the rear near Kryvyi Rih and the 4 new HIMARs that were delivered to Ukraine last night and attack there. If the Ukrainians capture Melitopol or even make it contested ground then the land bridge to Crimea is severed, the backdoor to Kherson is opened, and the Russian position will be split in two.

It will be interesting to see if Ukraine can maintain the pressure in the south while simultaneously bringing enough combat power somewhere else to make an impact.

Part of me wonders if that's the plan, the south is a feint to draw Russian combat power away from other fronts.