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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/30/22 at 7:42 am to LSUCanFAN
Posted on 7/30/22 at 7:42 am to LSUCanFAN
Not sure if this one has already been reported, but another ammo depot goes up
quote:
Morning detonation of Russian ammunition depot in Alchevsk, Donbass. ~ 50 km to the front line.
#Ukraine #ASMR LINK
0
Posted on 7/30/22 at 7:47 am to cypher
The first video from the Antonovsky railway bridge near Kherson appeared after the Ukrainian strikes!
#Kherson #Ukraine
Video - Antonovsky railway bridge damage
#Kherson #Ukraine
Video - Antonovsky railway bridge damage
This post was edited on 7/30/22 at 7:50 am
Posted on 7/30/22 at 8:13 am to cypher
quote:
In Depth Analysis of Russian Economy - Sonnenfield
I made my way through the paper last night and this morning. It turns out it is only ~70 pages long but has a ~50 page slide deck addendum.
I can't speak to the veracity of the numbers nor the accuracy of the conclusions but I saw nothing that would call either into question. Given the state of the rest of the world's economy thinking Russia's economy is doing anything but spiraling seems illogical.
The paper seemed well sourced from a wide variety of sources and the slides do an excellent job at presenting otherwise granular information in an easy to understand way though I will say it would be a chore to tackle on a phone vs a computer. I found myself shifting from my laptop to my desktop so I could have the corresponding slides open beside the text so I could easily go back and forth without scrolling.
Worth the time if you are interested in the current Russian economic situation, but if you aren't you will bail in a few pages.
I will relist the conclusions using the slides:
I will note the authors are making an argument and it is fair to say they are interested in an outcome. That being said I think it would be fairly difficult to argue the counterpoint and would be an uphill struggle. It is by far the most thorough treatment of the situations I have seen. Thanks to cypher for posting it.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 8:24 am to Obtuse1
Thanks, I'll have to check out the slides, skipped them on my first read.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 8:25 am to cypher
quote:
The first video from the Antonovsky railway bridge near Kherson appeared after the Ukrainian strikes!
That bridge is cooked. If this is the only damage the strikes avoided the truss sections of the bridge which makes sense because it allows for a much quicker return to service. Had the truss spans been hit it might very well take a year to return it to service during peacetime likely much more during wartime.
I can't imagine what it feels like to be in the Russian military and see how a handful of Western arms shift the balance of power. I also would not want to be a unit commander on the west side of the Dnipro right now, the safety of mother Russia must feel lightyears away right now.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 9:12 am to Obtuse1
quote:in fact there are intercepts that detail that exact situation and sense of oh frick. I’m fascinated with the curated stuff out of Germany, Poland and CZ. I’m assured as well that when this is all over German MI will have played an outsized role than I was expecting. Oh and Estonian MI as well.
I can't imagine what it feels like to be in the Russian military and see how a handful of Western arms shift the balance of power. I also would not want to be a unit commander on the west side of the Dnipro right now, the safety of mother Russia must feel lightyears away right now.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 9:22 am to LSUCanFAN
I received an email from a Russian CEO friend, who lives in Houston, but is "Out of the Country" of a few more months. He is eager to talk and in meetings in 2015 he was definitely not a fan of Putin. In mid 2015, he was CFO/COO while a Turkish engineer was CEO, but still always part of every meeting. He was always the eyes and ears of the Oligarch behind things, also having worked for the Oligarch in London several years ago handling financial transactions.
His background is an education in economics at the university in Moscow then a law degree from there as well.
A few months ago, he was in Kazakhstan for two months. He may still be there, but that was over WhatsApp call when we last talked.
His background is an education in economics at the university in Moscow then a law degree from there as well.
A few months ago, he was in Kazakhstan for two months. He may still be there, but that was over WhatsApp call when we last talked.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 10:06 am to Obtuse1
The report understates albeit $5 a barrel, the Russian discounts being given. I get that it wants an outcome, but from everything known it is accurate. Russia is way more dependent on Europe than Europe dependent on Russia
Posted on 7/30/22 at 10:09 am to Obtuse1
I don’t disagree with much of the conclusions in those slides however, this appears to me to be a short-medium term forecast.
The long-term outlook will result in a much deeper trade integration between Russia and China, and Russia and India especially with respect to petrochemical e.g. oil, and fertilizer.
The costs of this war will severely harm Russia in the short-medium term, but in the end Russia will emerge stronger and far more economically resistant to the sanction interventions of the West, whatever the outcome of the war.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 10:30 am to Warfox
Not at all, there is a quite large mountain range between Russia and India. India has already cancelled armaments contracts with Russia. Additionally, China and India hate each other for more than recent years, that is no way to have a coalition.
One thing you need to realize is that Chinese companies really hate dealing with Russians for all sorts of commodities, Russians ALWAYS misrepresent their products and rarely meet the specs in the contract.
Russia has zero way of exporting the natural gas destined for Europe to anywhere else. Russia has been unable to bring levels of products refined from oil to what they were before 2020. India and China are definitely not customers nor want to be.
Best case scenario for Russia is to completely become a vassal state of China, not just an ally.
One thing you need to realize is that Chinese companies really hate dealing with Russians for all sorts of commodities, Russians ALWAYS misrepresent their products and rarely meet the specs in the contract.
Russia has zero way of exporting the natural gas destined for Europe to anywhere else. Russia has been unable to bring levels of products refined from oil to what they were before 2020. India and China are definitely not customers nor want to be.
Best case scenario for Russia is to completely become a vassal state of China, not just an ally.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 10:53 am to cypher
Well that bridge is fricked. They can’t patch the holes with concrete like they could some of the car part of the bridge. The structure has to be completely intact to support the weight of a train especially since it will be carrying heavy loads like tanks. I’m surprised they haven’t already gone after the pontoon bridges but they also need to be conscious of conserving HIMARS ammunition and they would just put another pontoon bridge up most likely so better to keep attacking their ammo dumps and command and control. Won’t be long at this rate before they are in range of regular artillery like the M777.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 10:56 am to cypher
Is there a bunch of Russians on the Ukraine side of that bridge? Russia is so fricked. That dumbass is rewriting history books from a great leader of the Russian people to a self righteous shitbird that led Russia into the dark. He is big jackass.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 11:01 am to Warfox
quote:
the end Russia will emerge stronger and far more economically resistant to the sanction interventions of the West,
Twenty years from now, Russia's economy will be smaller than it was in 2014. Western economies will have tripled or quadrupled in size by then. Russia will be light years behind its rivals in technology and subject to the worst Brain Drain ever seen on the planet.
And you're trying to spin that into some sort of net positive: "well at least they'll be insulated from further sanctions"
It's baffling the mental gymnastics
Posted on 7/30/22 at 11:06 am to CitizenK
Has anyone noticed the Russia trolls have been awfully quiet lately as their military position has become very tenuous? Not much from Lima, Ruffy, Winston and the gang.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 11:10 am to LSUPilot07
Maybe just recoverin from a vodka binge
Posted on 7/30/22 at 11:12 am to CitizenK
Here’s a little known fact. Russian vodka tastes like horse piss. You’d think they could get that right at least.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 11:12 am to LSUPilot07
Why do you drink horse piss?
Posted on 7/30/22 at 11:18 am to LSUPilot07
Well leaving all of the fusel oil in helps achieve that. it is offered on drilling rigs all of the time in Siberia per a friend who worked there in the 90's.
Posted on 7/30/22 at 11:22 am to Eurocat
Looks like Ukraine loves the heavy metal!
quote:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world’s volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an industrialized country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
2nd in Europe and 4th largest natural gas pipeline system in the world (142.5 bln cubic meters of gas throughput capacity in the EU);
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world’s largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defense industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).
Posted on 7/30/22 at 11:23 am to LSUPilot07
Sanctions doing work. Kremlin can’t cut those checks anymore.
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