re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Has the ukraine won yet or should we sent 100 billion dollars to zelensky now?

No answer? Okay then!

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If what I am hearing is correct you may need new Sauces. Hearing Severodonetsk has been taken by the Russians.

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May 28, 7:30pm ET Russian President Vladimir Putin is inflicting unspeakable suffering on Ukrainians and demanding horrible sacrifices of his own people in an effort to seize a city that does not merit the cost, even for him.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that aimed to seize and occupy the entire country has become a desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east while defending important but limited gains in the south and east. Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong. When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.

Russian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed in taking the city and areas further west. The Ukrainian military is facing the most serious challenge it has encountered since the isolation of the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol and may well suffer a significant tactical defeat in the coming days if Severodonetsk falls, although such an outcome is by no means certain, and the Russian attacks may well stall again.

The Russians are paying a price for their current tactical success that is out of proportion to any real operational or strategic benefit they can hope to receive.

Severodonetsk itself is important at this stage in the war primarily because it is the last significant population center in Luhansk Oblast that the Russians do not control. Seizing it will let Moscow declare that it has secured Luhansk Oblast fully but will give Russia no other significant military or economic benefit. This is especially true because Russian forces are destroying the city as they assault it and will control its rubble if they capture it.

Taking Severodonetsk can open a Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) to support operations to the west, but the Russians have failed to secure much more advantageous GLOCs from Izyum partly because they have concentrated so much on Severodonetsk.

The Russians continue to make extremely limited progress in their efforts to gain control of the unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast, meanwhile. Russian troops have struggled to penetrate the pre-February 24 line of contact for weeks, while Russian offensive operations from Izyum to the south remain largely stalled. The seizure of Severodonetsk could only assist in the conquest of the rest of Donetsk Oblast if it gave the Russians momentum on which to build successive operations, but the Battle of Severdonetsk will most likely preclude continued large-scale Russian offensive operations.

Russian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective. Russian troops have been unable to make progress on any other axes for weeks and have largely not even tried to do so. Ukrainian defenders have inflicted fearful casualties on the Russian attackers around Severodonetsk even so. Moscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.

Ukrainian forces are also suffering serious losses in the Battle of Severodonetsk, as are Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. The Russians have concentrated a much higher proportion of their available offensive combat power to take Severodonetsk than the Ukrainians, however, shaping the attrition gradient generally in Kyiv’s favor. [\b]The Ukrainians continue to receive supplies and materiel from their allies as well, however slow and limited that flow may be. The Russians, in contrast, continue to manifest clear signs that they are burning through their available reserves of manpower and materiel with no reason to expect relief in the coming months.

Evidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.[1] Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines. ISW cannot independently confirm the GUR’s report, but commentary by Russian milbloggers offers some circumstantial support for it. Russian milblogger Alexander Zhychkovskiy criticized the Russian military command’s disregard for reservists on the deprioritized Zaporizhia Oblast front. Zhychkovskiy reported that Russian commanders trapped lightly-equipped infantry units in areas of intense Ukrainian artillery fire without significant artillery support and did not rotate other units through those areas to relieve them.[2] Zhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen. Another milblogger, Alexander Khodarkovsky, said that Russian commanders are not sending reinforcements in a timely matter, preventing Russian forces from resting between ground assaults.[3] Waning professionalism among Russia’s officers could present Ukrainian forces with opportunities. Russian morale, already low, may drop further if such behavior is widespread and continues. If Russian troops stuck on secondary axes lose their will to fight as the Battle for Severdonetsk consumes much of the available Russian offensive combat power, Ukraine may have a chance to launch significant counteroffensives with good prospects for success. That prospect is uncertain, and Ukraine may not have the ability to take advantage of an opportunity even if it presents itself, but [b]the current pattern of Russian operations is generating serious vulnerabilities that Kyiv will likely attempt to exploit.

Key Takeaways Russian forces pressed the ground assault on Severodonetsk and its environs, making limited gains. Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod. Ukrainian forces began a counteroffensive near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border approximately 70 km to the northeast of Kherson City that may have crossed the Inhulets River. Russia’s use of stored T-62 tanks in the southern axis indicates Russia’s continued materiel and force generation problems. Ukrainian partisan activity continues to impose costs on Russian occupation forces in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

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Stop watching pro-Russia telegram channels, and the Battle of Severodonetsk is no where close to being over.

The Russians invaded Ukraine. Frankly I would not care if Ukraine live streamed every Russia pow being burned in cages.

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The Russians invaded Ukraine. Frankly I would not care if Ukraine live streamed every Russia pow being burned in cages.

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Would you feel the same about American POWs in Iraq back in 03?

Looks like Ukraine is finally getting it’s mobile rocket systems. The M240 doesn’t have the range of our HIMARS units but they don’t cost as much to operate and are probable easier to teach in a hurry to Ukrainian troops. This also limits the fear that they will use the systems to fire into Russia which I don’t think they’d do anyway since any military commander worth his salt would see that would be a death blow to public opinion. Ukraine is far from done. Eventually a coordinated counter attack in mass will come from somewhere and that’s where we will really see which way the war is going to go but the one thing that even the Russians can’t deny is that they underestimate the Ukrainians will to fight and are quickly running out of the back one of their armored forces, the updated T-72’s and T-80’s by way of seeing 50 year old T-62’s coming to the front in large numbers. The Russians haven’t deployed as many of their prized T-90 tanks for fear of the JAVELIN missile and other western weapons but there have still been over 100 confirmed kills of new T-92 tanks as well. The Armata basically doesn’t even exist though they claim it to be the best tank on earth but they only have the money to build about 3 of them so you see where the Russian economy is at right there. Everything they fight with is dogshit equipment with worse training. Any other trained military with their number of men and machine would be able to deal damage even with shite equipment but they are incompetent from the top down.

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As much as the media portrays this as a battle between good and evil - it’s not.

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The people that control Russia are Evil, being on the right side of WW2 doesn’t change that fact. The Ukraine government isn’t perfect and could very well be corrupt, but even if they are, it’s nothing even close to the Russian government. As far as the shelling in the Donbas goes over the last eight years, didn’t Russia kind of bring it up on their selves by getting involved in Ukraine politics and using it as an excuse to take parts of Ukraine?

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The Ukraine government isn’t perfect and could very well be corrupt, but even if they are, it’s nothing even close to the Russian government.

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They’re within a margin of error of each other on the World Corruption Perception Index. As a reference though, Russia is next door to Mexico on that list.

That isn’t the point though, and that’s what all the whataboutist stooges don’t understand. Would we sit idly by if China tried to invade Mexico and steal all the tequila and cuties? frick no.

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My sauce sent me a video (too graphic to post) of Russian soldiers charging a machine gun and literally being mowed down. That attack was repelled but it cost the Russians over a 100 K/W/C compared to 1 wounded and 0 KIA for the Ukrainians in that exchange. Ukraine suffered around 1500 KIA in Severodonetsk yesterday but the losses among the Russians was too high to calculate. Obviously it’s not 100:1 or anything like that one exchange, but my sauce said it would not surprise him if Russia had at least 7000 KIA in Severodonetsk yesterday.

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Jesus

I'm rooting for the Ukrainians to win but even a fraction of those losses would be horrific.

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Holy shite. Ukraine is in the running for most corrupt country in the world.

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You can’t even get the talking point straight. They are considered corrupt in comparison to the rest of Europe (which isn’t a surprise for a former Eastern Bloc country that has not yet been fully accepted into the European community), but they have a long ways to go before “most corrupt in the world”.