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re: Israel–Hamas War Discussion Thread: News Links On First Page
Posted on 10/11/23 at 9:59 pm to tickfawtiger
Posted on 10/11/23 at 9:59 pm to tickfawtiger
quote:
founded 26 May 1948; 75 years ago
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:01 pm to Pepperoni
Really should say like 1050 BC or whenever the first Kingdom of Israel was created
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:02 pm to tickfawtiger
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:03 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Israel troops have entered the West Bank tonight as fighting in Jenin has commenced.
Quoting a previous post of mine addressing this possibility. Lots of PIJ in Jenin and Nablus. Hebron is another WB city that could get hot very easily.
And again, you have to remember the PA doesn't have an army...more of a glorified police force. The PA might want to stay totally out of this, but they can't do anything if PIJ and other militias get opportunistic.
quote:
A point on the reserves being called up.
Some of the reserves will be used to augment the main force, but it's not a situation where they need to call everyone up in order to go because they need the bodies.
The reserves, on top of standard support roles, typically fills in the holes left when the main force shifts its focus and launches, so they'll want them in place before kicking things off. The IDF is primarily built for defense, so when they go offensive, they need to backfill all the defensive responsibilities.
One of the big vulnerabilities here is the West Bank. While Israel is occupied with Hamas in Gaza and potentially Hez in the north, things could get extremely nasty if elements inside the West Bank get froggy.
Abbas and the Palestinian Authority operate differently from Hamas (mostly "non violent"), but there are militias all over the place in the WB that can/will do whatever they want whenever they want. (Just because the PA governs the West Bank doesn't necessarily mean they can control everyone in it.)
In other words, the PA/West Bank as a whole could stay out of it, but PIJ or other militia elements could unilaterally run attacks all over the place in the B and C zones.
I think we'll see some of that; the extent of which will largely depend on the resources the IDF and Border Police have in place to prevent it (this ties back into the point about the reserves).
At a minimum, I'll say there will be at least a few opportunistic attacks in the B/C Zones once (if it does) the full scale ground operations have most of the focus shifted elsewhere.
If they're successful, we'll see more. If the IDF/Border Police and other units can keep the lid on it, it may stop there.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:09 pm to TexasTiger33
quote:
Once again, in my opinion, as long as Hez is kept in their cage by their Master Eye Ran, this war will end within days or weeks at most with a brokered ceasefire.
The powers in the region will see to it. This is my opinion based on decades of following middle east affairs.
I could be wrong.
That's most definitely the basic playbook. This one feels different to me. The scale, the sophistication, the departure from their normal TTPs (<--- that's the big indicator of significant external support beyond money/weapons and a slap on the butt).
Different enough to say "could be the usual; could be huge; who knows?"
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:16 pm to Fun Bunch
Probably old news here, but I just saw it.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/marines-move-middle-east-result-emerging-events
quote:
A special operations Marine Corps unit participating in exercises (Kuwait) expected to last through Oct. 22, departed early this week "as a result of emerging events," according to reports
… The day before the exercises began, Oct. 7, Hamas-led militants conducted a deadly surprise attack on Israel, killing at least 22 U.S. citizens, leaving at least 17 still unaccounted for, and some being held hostage in Gaza.
Marine Corps Times reported Wednesday that the sailors and Marines who are part of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit in Kuwait and traveling on the Bataan and Carter Hall, "are no longer in vicinity of Kuwait."
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/marines-move-middle-east-result-emerging-events
This post was edited on 10/11/23 at 10:23 pm
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:16 pm to Burt Orangello
How does a brokered ceasefire benefit anyone now?
Trying to make understand the rationale behind the gameplan…
Trying to make understand the rationale behind the gameplan…
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:17 pm to dallastigers
Interesting. Marines aren’t being moved around on the chess board to deploy to Israel.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:20 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Interesting. Marines aren’t being moved around on the chess board to deploy to Israel.
I had trouble selecting a quote.
They are leaving Kuwait early which leaves open heading closer to Israel.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:21 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
IDF is still going to abide by ROE, or at least feign an attempt.
Their ROE is a little different than ours, though.
ROE isn't static. It can vary by overall campaign, theater, and even mission specific.
I can't imagine it'll be very tight, considering what started all this and the fact that'll be a second front against an arguably more formidable foe that's not largely contained.
But they did handcuff them in one of the dustups years back and they nearly got their asses handed to them (you could argue they did in some ways) because of it.
I didn't mean to imply that they won't be able to do what needs to be done - was more of a positive comment on their capabilities if allowed to work.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:21 pm to dallastigers
Yeah but I doubt they go TO Israel. Syria? Lebanon?
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:23 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Interesting. Marines aren’t being moved around on the chess board to deploy to Israel.
I’ll bet there’s a Marine unit in the region on standby to conduct an evacuation of US citizens from Lebanon or Israel if needed and Marine Raider units, along with all the other ninjas, ready to conduct whatever ninja shite is needed in the region. But we aren’t invading Gaza for Israel so ground troops aren’t really needed. The only reason sea and air power are being moved around is to make sure everyone knows that you don’t get to enter the fight without our say so.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:29 pm to Burt Orangello
quote:
ROE isn't static. It can vary by overall campaign, theater, and even mission specific. I can't imagine it'll be very tight, considering what started all this and the fact that'll be a second front against an arguably more formidable foe that's not largely contained.
My point was Israel’s ROE are generally going to be looser than ours (recent history at least)due to the nature of their excursions compared to our own. They ain’t “winning hearts and minds”.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:31 pm to AGGIES
quote:
How does a brokered ceasefire benefit anyone now?
It keeps a lid on the overall region.
A cease fire wouldn't be brokered within days - it would likely be slow walked some to give Israel time to get a pound or two of flesh (can't call for it too soon or they won't agree to it). Then everyone would be sent to their corner to cool off where they're convinced to not stand for the bell for the next round.
It's kind of like how MLB umps will let the pitcher plunk a guy if warranted, but then they're like "Okay, we let you handle business but it stops now. Another one gets you tossed."
Like I said though, this one feels different to me. What he said IS the usual order of things, but I think this one has a better than 50% chance of getting big.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:49 pm to roadGator
quote:
if their ROE allows them room to work.
quote:Their ROE is going to read something like this:
After this I can’t imagine there much room for ROE
"Don't shoot each other.
That is all"
Posted on 10/11/23 at 10:53 pm to SidewalkTiger
Israel is trolling Hamas by flying a loud arse drone overhead, you can hear it on the live feed
Gaza/Israel Live feed YouTube
Gaza/Israel Live feed YouTube
Posted on 10/11/23 at 11:13 pm to Terminal Lance
quote:
only reason sea and air power are being moved around is to make sure everyone knows that you don’t get to enter the fight without our say so.
FYI, Israel, doesn’t wait for our “say so” on anything directly related to Israel.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 11:14 pm to Havoc
How effective do y'all think this "warning them before striking" tactic will be? I get it, you have to do it for civilians, but you're not going to kill any Hamas with that tactic.
Also, I wonder how many Hamas are still in Gaza? Were any of the big fish even in Gaza in the first place?
Also, I wonder how many Hamas are still in Gaza? Were any of the big fish even in Gaza in the first place?
Posted on 10/11/23 at 11:15 pm to Beaver Bandit
Watching Reuters feed linked on Page 1...Lots of bombs dropping in Gaza the last 5 minutes
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