Imperial college study: 15% of Spain, 10% of Italy, 3% of UK is infected with cv19

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In Italy there are 11,591 COVID-19 deaths as I write this out of a population of 60.48 million people. If 9.8 percent of the population is infected, that’s 5.9 million cases. That’s a fatality rate of 0.2 percent, lower than the estimates of one to two percent (or higher) that are based on Chinese data.

In Spain there are 7,340 deaths as of today in a population of 46.66 million. Assuming 15 percent are infected, that’s just about seven million infections. Case fatality rate: 0.1 percent.

One more. The Imperial College estimates an infection rate in the United Kingdom of 2.7 percent. Among a population of 66.44 million, that should mean about 1.8 million infections. They’ve had 1,408 deaths so far. That’s a case fatality rate of 0.08 percent.

If you assume that actual infection rates run towards the higher end of the Imperial College’s statistical range, the fatality rate shrinks further. As for our own country, if we assume, say, a two percent infection rate (in line with most of the estimates in the table above), that would mean 6.5 million total infections in the U.S. against 2,945 deaths as of this afternoon. That would be a fatality rate of just .045 percent. If that’s true, then if all 327.2 million Americans were infected, we would expect the total number of deaths to be 147,240 — which, not coincidentally, is smack dab in the middle of the range given by Deborah Birx this morning.

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