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re: IHME model is getting better for the US...stabilizing as we get more and more good data
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:17 am to JohnnyKilroy
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:17 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
The flu kills around 1000 or so people per day during flu season worldwide.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
Constantly posting inaccurate flu death data doesn't help your case.
1
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:17 am to shawnlsu
quote:
The economy can't take much more than the end of April. That needs to be the middle ground for risk/reward on the virus and economy, IMO
It's looking like that will be an adequate time frame to pace the spread. When the present orders expire, they should not be renewed. (My opinion FWIW)
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:18 am to RB10
quote:
Well, the way they're being presented is a huge problem.
"Early Projections Very High, Likely to Decrease With More Data"
vs.
"Top Expert Says Millions Will Die"
Well that isn’t exclusive to the media. Check out any of the posts on the OT or poliboard about H1N1. They always use the highest estimated death total to make their point.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:18 am to uscpuke
quote:
Lots of modeling apologists.
because we understand how modeling works
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:19 am to Pettifogger
quote:Umm, 60k deaths, which are now the projections, is absolutely flu like results
Of course, a ton of those dudes predicted flu-results, or a thousand deaths, etc., but they'll never mention those predictions.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:20 am to RB10
quote:
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
Constantly posting inaccurate flu death data doesn't help your case.
I really don't have a dog in this fight, but flu numbers are a fricking joke. I'm in the healthcare world and monitor flu data all the time and it's totally bogus.
Most "flu" deaths don't have a positive flu test.
There really is no flu number out there that is accurate, so it is a fools errand to try and find one.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:20 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Might have a big thread with screenshots
Pretty weird thing to brag about
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:21 am to lsupride87
quote:
Umm, 60k deaths, which are now the projections, is absolutely flu like results
Yeah, the flu where everyone stopped working for 2 months and stayed inside and wore masks and oh, if the flu taxed out all the ICUs and had 10x the CFR and hospitalization rate
Just like it
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:21 am to RB10
quote:
Absolutely. The early projections were absurd, and even then the media generally reported the high end of it.
Sensationalism still sells.
You have to completely disregard the media had been openly rooting for a recession the last year, you dont think this was a dream scenario for them?
I mean they were openly saying they wanted to crash the economy in June of 19 to get rid of Trump (Bill Maher)
Do any of you even read?
quote:
I'm "Hoping" For "A Crashing Economy" So We Can Get Rid Of Trump, "Bring On The Recession"
quote:
As the media ramps up speculation about a possible economic downturn under President Trump, MSNBC anchor Stephanie Ruhle said it's "about time" America experiences a recession after several years of financial growth.
Low IQ shills
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:22 am to NIH
quote:
Pretty weird thing to brag about
Brag? What would I be bragging about? I didn't say I'd post my predictions.
I would like to mock people who said this would be over in a week and those that said it would kill millions. Both sides of the hyperbole.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:22 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I really don't have a dog in this fight, but flu numbers are a fricking joke. I'm in the healthcare world and monitor flu data all the time and it's totally bogus.
Most "flu" deaths don't have a positive flu test.
There really is no flu number out there that is accurate, so it is a fools errand to try and find one.
You were just defending the modelers for using the data available to them even though it was limited. It's unreasonable to do so with the flu?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:22 am to Strannix
quote:
Strannix
Go back to the poliboard please.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:23 am to Strannix
Someone must have left the gate open.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:23 am to Strannix
"Do any of you even read" is a *chef's kiss* argument from someone who reads exclusively Conservative Treehouse
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:23 am to Pettifogger
quote:
Yeah, the flu where everyone stopped working for 2 months and stayed inside and wore masks and oh, if the flu taxed out all the ICUs and had 10x the CFR and hospitalization rate
Just like it
Not to mention the flu deaths are spread out over an entire year, while this once is barely into its second month of spread.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:23 am to Strannix
quote:
Low IQ shills
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:25 am to Strannix
quote:
ou have to completely disregard the media had been openly rooting for a recession the last year, you dont think this was a dream scenario for them?
I mean they were openly saying they wanted to crash the economy in June of 19 to get rid of Trump (Bill Maher)
Yes, when I think of influential media personalities today, comedian Bill Maher is the first name that pops into my head.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:26 am to Salmon
quote:
because we understand how modeling works
Models are so wrong (and therefore non-useful) that meteorologists are embarrassed for you.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:27 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I would like to mock people who said this would be over in a week and those that said it would kill millions. Both sides of the hyperbole.
Honestly, that information is needed. Not as a point of personal pride, but because all these bubbas out there saying "Ha a hoax!" is going to keep us from doing what we need to do in the debrief of this thing.
This presents a huge opportunity for public health to spot vulnerabilities and improve upon them, and will likely benefit our societies in the long run if for no other reason than helping to limit panic if and when a worse pandemic arises. But a ton of morons are going to oppose that effort, so your saved posts have some usefulness.
FWIW, I predicted like 15-25000 deaths I think. So I'm probably going to be wrong too. But at the time that was deemed a ridiculous number by many.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:29 am to RB10
quote:
You were just defending the modelers for using the data available to them even though it was limited. It's unreasonable to do so with the flu?
Apples to oranges.
Flu numbers aren't really models. They just take every pulmonary related death during a certain time of year and call it flu (generalization, but you get my point).
I'm not taking any model as fact either. That seems to be the issue these days. They're just fun to monitor as they get more concrete data.
As bad as the data is for COVID19 in some areas, it is far worse for flu. At least they are required to test for COVID19 before counting it.
Again, no dog in this fight. I don't really want to argue anymore, just sharing the data as we get it.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 9:31 am
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