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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:15 am to Wally Sparks
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:15 am to Wally Sparks
quote:
feel like large swaths of AMI, Holmes Beach, and Longboat Key
Yeah it’s now a game of inches (+/-20 miles). Someone is going to get wiped out. Laura and Ida showed how last minute wobbles was the difference between 17 of water and 5ft.
2
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:18 am to rds dc
quote:
Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean.
:(
Hope my uncle and cousins who lives in Sarasota got the frick out
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:19 am to BeeFense5
quote:
Even if it does weaken if it got to CAT 5 it’s taking that surge with it.
This. Katrina weakened to a 3 at landfall but still had a cat 5 surge of 20-25 feet
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:20 am to DrewDawg13
quote:
DrewDawg13
Have you ever rode out a hurricane?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:21 am to 50_Tiger
What are we looking at here as far as getting back into St. Pete after the storm? I do not want to deal with getting out and getting back in. Or my girlfriend’s family.
If I’m in a safe place with enough rations, is it not a fine idea to stick it out at home?
We live here. I know it looks worrisome on a map but I’m on the edge of a really steep slope. Also in a safe building off the first floor. Im extremely confident water won’t even touch our property and it’s impossible for it to be of any significance if it does.
My point is the worst possible scenario simply puts me stuck here, safe, and dealing with whatever comes with the storm like no power. Basically choosing between which scenario is less annoying to deal with. I want to be home.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:23 am to Chad504boy
quote:
Can someone start piling a list of cameras online in the tampa coastal area?
Live Beaches
Fox13 Live Webcams
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:23 am to ReauxlTide222
You could ship out loved ones and hold down the fort and check on everything after it hits. Done that numerous times. Especially if you really feel like you are at no risk for flood damage
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:25 am to ReauxlTide222
I don’t care how “safe” you think that building is, when the wind is screaming at 130 mph, and everything is shaking and windows are blowing out, you will really, really wish you had left.
Go drive down the interstate at 130 mph and stick your head out the window
Go drive down the interstate at 130 mph and stick your head out the window
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:26 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
My point is the worst possible scenario simply puts me stuck here, safe, and dealing with whatever comes with the storm like no power. Basically choosing between which scenario is less annoying to deal with. I want to be home.
Expect to be without not only power, but sewer and possibly water not for days but weeks.
It absolutely sucks. You think you want to be "home" but that is not your home when the basic comforts are not functioning. I've been through plenty, the worst part is never the storm, its after.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:27 am to ABucks11
quote:
Someone is going to get wiped out
That is the only certainty at this point.
Looks like there is a very slightly east of due north component to the forward motion based on radar. I'd call it 5 degrees heading. Could just be reorganizing moving off Cuba but could be a slight direction change also.
We'll see what the NHC says at 10 CDT / 11 EDT.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:27 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
If I’m in a safe place with enough rations, is it not a fine idea to stick it out at home?
My aunt and uncle stayed in Houma for Ida. They were inland and not in a flood zone. Had a whole home generator. They made it out, but she said she'll never do it again. It was terrifying and for about 5 straight hours sounded like the roof was going to come off of their home. The walls were shaking. For 5 hours. Are you ready for that AND storm surge?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:28 am to SippyCup
quote:
I feel like large swaths of AMI, Holmes Beach, and Longboat Key are going to get blown away if this track holds
They are essentially barrier islands and mostly flat. Not a single structure will be spared. Hopefully they find a way to rebuild it like it is/was, but I wouldn't be surprised to see all that Sarasota money come in make it what it shouldn't be
I was at AMI last month. It is my favorite beach community in the U.S. You are right, it is as flat as pancake and nothing will be left standing.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:29 am to Greace
Spoke with my friends down in Dunedin and they still aren't planning on going anywhere. Just went and got another can of gas for the generator.
At what point are you likely stuck where you are, Wednesday night? Hoping they just decide to leave.
At what point are you likely stuck where you are, Wednesday night? Hoping they just decide to leave.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:29 am to ReauxlTide222
You’re going to get blasted for 6-8 hours straight.
I would lock everything down and get the F out of dodge. Get back when you can. If something happens during the storm, you will powerless to do anything.
I would lock everything down and get the F out of dodge. Get back when you can. If something happens during the storm, you will powerless to do anything.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 8:30 am
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:29 am to ReauxlTide222
I'm surprised how many people on here live in the Tampa (south Florida area). I'm 80 miles east of Bradenton and praying for you guys along the coast!
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 9:43 am
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:30 am to wickowick
quote:
Go drive down the interstate at 130 mph and stick your head out the window
and remember, it's not that the wind is blowing 130 mph,, it's WHAT the wind is blowing at 130 mph during a hurricane.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:30 am to SippyCup
quote:
the worst part is never the storm, its after.
This!
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:31 am to H2O Tiger
Probably need to leave by today. Go east not north.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:31 am to SoonerK
quote:
I was at AMI last month. It is my favorite beach community in the U.S. You are right, it is as flat as pancake and nothing will be left standing.
It's going to suck for a long time but they keep rebuilding Grand Isle so no reason to think they wont rebuild AMI, LBK and Lido.
If I had to guess, the future will look more like 30A ad not the quaint town it currently is. You could already see that change happening with the newer mid island and bayside homes.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:32 am to MikeBRLA
I'm always amazed at how stupid people are when it comes to hurricanes. They think it's brave to stay and risk dying. So what, then they can tell their hurricane war stories to randoms? Get the hell out if you can, especially if you have kids. Don't put them through unnecessary shite.
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