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re: Hurricane Season - We back - NHC 10% Gulf Action

Posted on 7/14/25 at 2:59 pm to
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51405 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

Rather be in the models and cone early than towards the end. Always moves.....

There's no cone yet, baw. You're right though, models still move all over the place until an actual center is formed.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14553 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:03 pm to
Unusual location for formation but it is starting to crank up

Posted by FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
5200 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:06 pm to
quote:

extreme rainfall signal.
I was working in a downpour late last week and had the thought that with everything already soaked from the past few weeks of rain, it wouldn’t take much to get some flooding. FML.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75764 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

He's talking about getting it zoomed into the local regions

That is available, too.

Above map > Zoom > Click on US > Select the blue dot for the region you want

ETA: Nevermind, I see you're zoomed in more. The base website gets what the guy is looking for, though.
This post was edited on 7/14/25 at 3:18 pm
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66954 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:15 pm to
All this unfettered cloud seeding already wreaking havoc on the hurricane season
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51405 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:16 pm to
quote:

All this unfettered cloud seeding already wreaking havoc on the hurricane season

Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
178233 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:25 pm to
Nothing but Icon runs the last few pages. Wonder why no one is posting anything else.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66954 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:25 pm to
It was a joke. TDs. lol
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51405 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

Nothing but Icon runs the last few pages. Wonder why no one is posting anything else.

Sex and drama sells! Nobody wants to be told Friday is going to be business as usual. That's boring! We want to know about titty milk, local river hydrology, and how to repair generators last minute.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481104 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

My money is on Mississippi between Biloxi and Pascagoula


Sooo...Ocean Springs?

Don't make it t'landmass of t'landmass
This post was edited on 7/14/25 at 3:30 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75764 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

Nothing but Icon runs the last few pages. Wonder why no one is posting anything else.

What are you, the no fun police?
Posted by Clyde Tipton
Planet Earth
Member since Dec 2007
40847 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

Unusual location for formation but it is starting to crank up


Posted by slidingstop
Member since Jan 2025
2499 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

All this unfettered cloud seeding already wreaking havoc on the hurricane season


No they use lasers for the hurricanes. Cloud seeding is just used to cause floods.
Posted by back9Tiger
Island Coconut Salesman
Member since Nov 2005
18070 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Rather be in the models and cone early than towards the end. Always moves.....


Bingo
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43309 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 5:35 pm to
I feel models are underestimating that northerly shear and could make 93L slip little further south after passing Florida
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21626 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 5:50 pm to
quote:

It looks quite impressive on the Melbourne radar. Wasn’t expecting it to look as cyclonic


Radar only captures the mid-levels at that range and showed a robust MCV. That convection has faded this evening. The MCV from earlier today could work to tighten up the surface trough, but another burst of convection will be needed this evening to keep that process going.

One thing to note is that convection this afternoon over Florida has sent outflow boundaries racing eastward towards the surface trough. The dry, stable air associated with those could limit convection this evening.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75764 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 5:54 pm to
quote:

outflow boundaries

Have you seen the segment of society that believes these are geoengineered and created to help fire storms over areas that "they" want to destroy?

It is always fascinating when certain members of the public discover something new about the weather.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21626 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 5:54 pm to
quote:

I feel models are underestimating that northerly shear and could make 93L slip little further south after passing Florida


Yeah, persistent downshear convection could favor the circulation tightening up further south along the surface trough.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21626 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 5:57 pm to
quote:


Have you seen the segment of society that believes these are geoengineered and created to help fire storms over areas that "they" want to destroy?


Wouldn't it be simpler to fire the storms right over the target area? Firing storms elsewhere, having them collapse and spit an outflow boundary, and then hoping that said boundary fires another storm seems overly complicated.
Posted by questionable
FL
Member since Apr 2008
1284 posts
Posted on 7/14/25 at 5:59 pm to
quote:

lsuman25
quote:

I feel models are underestimating that northerly shear and could make 93L slip little further south after passing Florida
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