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3
Posted on 4/13/23 at 9:24 am to TheFonz
Pretty impressive little low this morning. 1002mb. There have been some gusts to tropical storm force along the Gulf Coast this morning.
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 9:26 am
Posted on 4/13/23 at 9:26 am to TheFonz
quote:
they didn't predict a hyperactive season.
Which means there will be only 5 hurricanes but 1 will be a cat 4 straight to NOLA
Posted on 4/13/23 at 10:02 am to TheFonz
This thing had us rocking pretty good in the gulf yesterday. Got to kick back and drink some 0% Heinekens instead of working yesterday
Posted on 4/13/23 at 10:04 am to Pelican fan99
Been at the beach since Tuesday, frick this bullshite.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 10:22 am to rds dc
quote:
CSU with their first forecast, and to the dismay of many, they didn't predict a hyperactive season.
That can't be. That just can not be! They always forecast a hyperactive season. Always!
Posted on 4/13/23 at 10:26 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
That can't be. That just can not be! They always forecast a hyperactive season. Always!
They pretty much just make an outlook based on ENSO and the other teleconnections. Transitioning (can you still use that word) to El-nino and a less active pattern.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 10:33 am to The Boat
quote:
They pretty much just make an outlook based on ENSO and the other teleconnections. Transitioning (can you still use that word) to El-nino and a less active pattern.
Nope. The good folks of the OT have told me every pre-season forecast they ever do is for an above average hurricane season.
ETA: Klotzbach was on the Storm Front Freaks podcast a while back talking about the issues with their forecast for last season. Pretty good listen.
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 10:41 am
Posted on 4/13/23 at 11:59 am to rds dc
Ft. Lauderdale getting their 1000 year rain event from non named storm
Welcome to La 2016
Welcome to La 2016
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:12 pm to nicholastiger
This just in from USA Today, today:
South Florida was under siege and under water Thursday amid a storm that dumped 25 inches of rain over some coastal areas, flooding homes and highways and forcing the shutdown of a major airport.
Fort Lauderdale was slammed with 25.95 inches of rainfall in 24 hours, AccuWeather reported. Some areas received 20 inches of rain in six hours. Hollywood and South Miami received at least 9 inches of rain.
"The amount of rain, the rainfall rate is something you should see once in in every 1,000 years or once in every 2,000 years," Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather's director of forecast operations, told USA TODAY.
A flood watch was in effect across much of South Florida through Thursday night, the National Weather Service said.
And April is characteristically the "dry" season in South Florida. There seems to be no place to hide nowadays from adverse weather events.
South Florida was under siege and under water Thursday amid a storm that dumped 25 inches of rain over some coastal areas, flooding homes and highways and forcing the shutdown of a major airport.
Fort Lauderdale was slammed with 25.95 inches of rainfall in 24 hours, AccuWeather reported. Some areas received 20 inches of rain in six hours. Hollywood and South Miami received at least 9 inches of rain.
"The amount of rain, the rainfall rate is something you should see once in in every 1,000 years or once in every 2,000 years," Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather's director of forecast operations, told USA TODAY.
A flood watch was in effect across much of South Florida through Thursday night, the National Weather Service said.
And April is characteristically the "dry" season in South Florida. There seems to be no place to hide nowadays from adverse weather events.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:39 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
They always forecast a hyperactive season. Always
That's the default forecast in a warming climate. Even NOAA "sanity checks" for the three-month stretches July-August-September and August-September-October (peak hurricane activity) suggest much greater chances for warmer-than-normal temperatures for the Gulf South and East Coast states. Seems to be ideal conditions for big tropical storms to form; in recent years in August and September the water temp in the Central Gulf of Mexico has averaged 90 degrees F, and hurricanes that have formed then have become monstrous in intensity.
Something unusual must be in play this year for CSU to go bearish on its forecast. I know last year it was record heat and drought on the other side of the Atlantic, and constant rivers of haboobs from the Sahara that held tropical storms at bay until September.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:41 pm to tarzana
quote:
That's the default forecast in a warming climate
Or the default forecast when you want attention/more fed money for research
You arent gonna get research money if you say everything is normal.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:44 pm to tarzana
quote:
tarzana
wish you'd stay out of these.
what you copy and paste those sentences out of?
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:50 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
Welcome to La 2016
I hate even remembering that August.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:56 pm to tarzana
quote:Yea, i mean look how bad the storms are now according to A.C.E. Oh, wait.
That's the default forecast in a warming climate. Even NOAA "sanity checks" for the three-month stretches July-August-September and August-September-October (peak hurricane activity) suggest much greater chances for warmer-than-normal temperatures for the Gulf South and East Coast states. Seems to be ideal conditions for big tropical storms to form; in recent years in August and September the water temp in the Central Gulf of Mexico has averaged 90 degrees F, and hurricanes that have formed then have become monstrous in intensity.
1933 - 258.57
2005 - 250.13
1893 - 231.15
1926 - 229.56
1995 - 227.10
2004 - 226.88
2017 - 224.88
1950 - 211.28
1961 - 205.39
1998 - 181.76
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 4/13/23 at 1:26 pm to tarzana
quote:
"The amount of rain, the rainfall rate is something you should see once in in every 1,000 years or once in every 2,000 years,"
Kiss your X flood rating goodbye!
Posted on 4/13/23 at 1:28 pm to tarzana
quote:
The amount of rain, the rainfall rate is something you should see once in in every 1,000 years or once in every 2,000 years," Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather's director of forecast operations, told USA TODAY.
Please show me detailed data on rainfall in the year 500 AD Dan
Posted on 4/13/23 at 1:47 pm to rds dc
Interesting little system. Swirling away in Mississippi, with outer band type showers/storms extending east into Alabama and Georgia.
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 4/13/23 at 1:48 pm to Cosmo
Posted on 4/13/23 at 1:49 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Confirmed by EMA. Good on them for having eyes on that storm because it hasn't had a strong CC drop on radar.
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 1:49 pm
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