re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

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He's an absolute calculated beast in tropical meteorology. He gets hammered on by the group think posters there because they think he downplays everything.

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He did finally give a tad bit of credence to the GFS solution today.

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Here's how it's done: 1) cut all electric power to your home 2) fire up your generator 3) eat canned foods 4) after ten hours of doing this, with little to no sleep, go outside and do yardwork during the hottest hours of the day

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add :
Bust out a few windows
Tear off half your shingles and put a tree limb thru the roof
Drag a hose pipe into the attic and lock it in on sprinkler
Drop big arse trees across a mile of road leading to your house

18z Euro EPS shows an uptick in members out near the Cayman Islands vs 12z which had everything in near the Yucatan. However, still not a strong signal with less than 10 members.

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add : Bust out a few windows Tear off half your shingles and put a tree limb thru the roof Drag a hose pipe into the attic and lock it in on sprinkler Drop big arse trees across a mile of road leading to your house

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Then have your wife put on a shirt that says USAA and have her:

1. kick you in the nuts,
2. tell you the information provided by your contractor is insufficient to increase the adjustment, and
3. Thank you for your decades of membership and ask if there is anything she can help you with today.

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However, still not a strong signal with less than 10 members.

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Are we talking weather or a circle jerk?

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The least active season was 1914, with only one known tropical cyclone developing during that year

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Talk about useless historical records. No way they didn't miss a fee storms. I doubt they'd have caught 2 of the 3 "storms" we've had this year.

GFS sticking to it's guns on the surface convergence to glory solution. It also ramps it up quickly, despite an absolute slopfest to begin with. Sus.

Wonder how the ensembles will play out.

I’ve gotten much better at reading you guys weather terminology, but this one is a new level of what the frick does that mean?

This run is a good example of why we don't want this developing in the Western Caribbean.

Of course, I remain skeptical of what the GFS is doing to get a storm in the first place.

Cat 4 almost cat 5 running in to the texas louisiana border Labor Day. According to the model would still be almost a cat 2 when it got to Dallas.