re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

This is the interesting portion of it right here. Where the potential storm would start to come together for the GFS. It is the stuff near the Caymans that ends up developing. ETA2: On closer inspection, the parent wave gets pulled north and they all kind of combine.

The end result is an "oh shite" run for Houston to Lake Charles but it is just wild speculation without more support for how it gets the storm organized in the first place.

I can’t imagine the traffic in Houston with everybody trying to evacuate if that path held its course.

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For instance if this thing develops let’s say due south of louisiana would anyone to the east of that point have much to worry about?

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They can move East, but in this case it probably ain't happening until it would be inland. You know, if it forms.

A hurricane is going to move the direction the larger scale flow pushes it and that flow should put anything on a general WNW baring by the end of next week.

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The end result is an "oh shite" run for Houston to Lake Charles

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I know it’s early.

But still. frick.

Note just how wide the location spread is on the ensembles.

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Guys, this isn't the time to worry. Certainly not based on a GFS modelcane 10 days ou

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Logically, I understand that. That’s just Laura PTSD kicking in.

The GFS continues to look interesting with the 06z of run this morning. It continues the idea of a western Carribean born system entering the Gulf next weekend. It also develops multiple systems in the main development region.

There is no reason to put any stock in what I’m about to say, but just for those curious, this run of the GFS has the western Carribean/Gulf system making a landfall eerily similar to Ida’s.

Well that’s certainly depressing for a Friday morning. Still early though.