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re: Hurricane Season - August - Potential Tropical Cyclone #9

Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:06 pm to
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62989 posts
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:06 pm to
quote:


Some dumbass at my company decided it would be a great idea to host a national sales meeting (600+ people attending) in Fort Lauderdale starting Sept. 10th - 15th.


Probably got the conference center for a discounted rate.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

At this point, not too worried about 99L.



The Euro has started to back off of 99L and now the 12z GFS has come in weaker. From 925mb grinding Florida at 00z to a weak system moving through the Islands and into the Gulf with a final landfall in Louisiana. Still too far out to worry about.

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85473 posts
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

The Euro has started to back off of 99L and now the 12z GFS has come in weaker. From 925mb grinding Florida at 00z to a weak system moving through the Islands and into the Gulf with a final landfall in Louisiana. Still too far out to worry about.


I enjoy looking at the 6 hour changes in the 10+ day tracks. I know they're incredibly unreliable, but it drives home how sensitive these things are to the slightest change.

6 hours ago this was an incredibly strong storm hitting Florida in 10 days, now it is a weak system moving through the Carribean at that same time frame. The dynamics at play 10 days out are simply incredible.
Posted by JOJO Hammer
Member since Nov 2010
11944 posts
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:40 pm to
The one in the Caribbean looks like a corn dog. I hope it doesn't frick up an LSU game.
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52187 posts
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:46 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/4/17 at 3:05 pm to
18z tracks for 90L, there is basically no convection in the area that the models were initiated. I wouldn't be surprised to see this consolidate farther north once it moves deeper in the WCAB.
This post was edited on 8/5/17 at 9:03 am
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/4/17 at 6:41 pm to
I ain't going to lie. This made me laugh.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/5/17 at 9:17 am to
Some deeper convection starting to fire with 90L this morning, models are generally showing a WNW track through the BOC to Mexico. One thing to watch will be how fast this system comes together, if it organizes and strengthens faster than what the models are showing then it could track farther north.



00z Tracks


Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/5/17 at 1:58 pm to
As of now, if 90L develops, it looks like the timing of the trough will be pretty favorable as it lifts out and allows a ridge to build over top. That should keep 90L pinned down in the BOC.



Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
90113 posts
Posted on 8/5/17 at 2:01 pm to
BRING THAT shite TO ME, JOBU!



Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/5/17 at 2:14 pm to
Update from Levi Cowen, he is a grad student at FSU and offers one of the best free website out there.

LINK
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
10943 posts
Posted on 8/5/17 at 7:03 pm to
Thanks
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/5/17 at 9:39 pm to
Looks like 99L got downgraded a bit.
Posted by highcotton2
Alabama
Member since Feb 2010
9476 posts
Posted on 8/5/17 at 10:47 pm to
Looking at these radar images of how big these storms are makes me think about how crazy it must have been to be on a sailing ship before radar and weather forecasting.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/6/17 at 8:12 am to
90L continues to slowly organize but only looks like an issue if you are traveling to Tampico



The HMON model for 90L

Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 8/6/17 at 4:00 pm to
Hey, thanks for the update. And thanks for that link too.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/6/17 at 4:13 pm to
NHC has initiated Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 advisories

Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
11593 posts
Posted on 8/7/17 at 3:22 pm to
Franklin now in radar range of Belize


Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/7/17 at 10:03 pm to
TS Franklin earlier today on GOES 16 5-min scans



Looking kind of ragged tonight as it approaches landfall, the combination of that massive convective blowup in the eastern feeder band and landfall could really disrupt the core of the system.

This post was edited on 8/8/17 at 8:30 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 8/9/17 at 3:53 pm to
Franklin now the 1st hurricane of the season



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