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Posted on 8/9/17 at 6:52 pm to rds dc
To follow up with an article...
LINK
LINK
quote:
NOAA has updated its annual Atlantic hurricane season outlook -- and it's looking busier. Forecasters increased the number of named storms predicted to form this season as well as major hurricanes. In its initial outlook, issued at the beginning of the season, NOAA had forecast a high likelihood of 11-17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes. The updated outlook has 14-19 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. (A major hurricane is a Category 3 or stronger storm.)
quote:
NOAA said the busier forecast reflects lowered chances of El Nino forming. El Nino typically depresses tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. In addition, NOAA said wind and air patterns as well as warmer sea surface temperatures this season favor storm development.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:26 am to rds dc
99L is finally trying to do something but will move harmlessly out to sea. This followed the August/September pattern of the last few seasons of waves struggling in the MDR and then developing farther west.
After 99L, the Gulf needs to be watched beyond the 19th or so of the month. The pattern looks to shift to something that could allow a system to move towards the Gulf. However, the pattern so far this summer has favored lower heights in the eastern US, if that carries forward then that would probably favor systems curving out to sea or staying far south like Franklin.
After 99L, the Gulf needs to be watched beyond the 19th or so of the month. The pattern looks to shift to something that could allow a system to move towards the Gulf. However, the pattern so far this summer has favored lower heights in the eastern US, if that carries forward then that would probably favor systems curving out to sea or staying far south like Franklin.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:32 am to rds dc
Thanks for the info. Quick question, is this stretch of calm weather the last several years an anomaly? Or is there historical precedence for the lack of storms in the Gulf?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:39 am to burgeman
quote:
Thanks for the info. Quick question, is this stretch of calm weather the last several years an anomaly? Or is there historical precedence for the lack of storms in the Gulf?
The Gulf has been historically calm recently and the longest no hurricane stretch on record just ended last year. The no major hurricane landfalls streak continues for the US. I'm of the thinking that warming SSTs, esp. in the WPAC, are altering the tropical atmospheric circulations (Hadley Cells) and that is impacting the Atlantic hurricane season. Too much to get into now but maybe I'll post something in more detail later.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:40 am to rds dc
Awesome, thank you
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:53 am to rds dc
This is OT but what do you know about sunspots going into a solar minimum and causing extremely cold winters for the next few years? I read about this on a commodity weather website.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:13 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
This is OT but what do you know about sunspots going into a solar minimum and causing extremely cold winters for the next few years? I read about this on a commodity weather website.
Yes, we are heading towards a solar minimum but we are coming off a global heat spike. How does that play into things going forward? Globally, we are warner than when heading into past solar minimums.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:51 am to GCTigahs
quote:
Above avg for names because they jump the gun and name something that lasts less than 24hrs or is a fish. Gotta get their predictions right
This. Is a few seagulls fart and get the wind speed up to 39mph, boom, we have a name.
Posted on 8/13/17 at 1:14 pm to rds dc
TD 8 has formed and NHC is now tracking 91L
Posted on 8/13/17 at 1:26 pm to rds dc
What is your opinion on 91L? Will this develop? Is the dry air still in place over the atlantic that has been knocking these systems down or is it gone like they were predicting?
They must think things are really going to ramp up bigtime since we are at 5 named storms at the moment but they are predicting 14.
They must think things are really going to ramp up bigtime since we are at 5 named storms at the moment but they are predicting 14.
Posted on 8/13/17 at 1:30 pm to Ponchy Tiger
12z Euro (this is not 91L) has a system entering the Islands with a very strong ridge over the top, this is a setup that could get something into the Gulf:
Posted on 8/13/17 at 1:33 pm to rds dc
Looks like something forming off the coast of florida in that last pic?
Posted on 8/13/17 at 1:34 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
What is your opinion on 91L? Will this develop? Is the dry air still in place over the atlantic that has been knocking these systems down or is it gone like they were predicting?
They must think things are really going to ramp up bigtime since we are at 5 named storms at the moment but they are predicting 14.
Models have been developing 91L on and off but there might be just enough of a SAL surge to keep 91L in check. This is what the 12z Euro appears to be showing. This allows the front running wave to develop, while 91L gets tangled up with the SAL surge. Long ways to go but climo is shifting in to high gear over the next couple of weeks.
Posted on 8/13/17 at 1:36 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
Looks like something forming off the coast of florida in that last pic?
That is an upper level low and will be something to watch. The models struggle with those types of features but they are very important, since they can either shear a system or help develop an outflow channel.
Posted on 8/13/17 at 1:42 pm to rds dc
quote:
That is an upper level low and will be something to watch. The models struggle with those types of features but they are very important, since they can either shear a system or help develop an outflow channel.
So it could take some of the energy out of the gulf that feed the other system?
Posted on 8/13/17 at 1:44 pm to Friscodog
Same.
But mine is only a 3 hour tour. What could go wrong?
But mine is only a 3 hour tour. What could go wrong?
Posted on 8/13/17 at 3:02 pm to rds dc
UKMET drives the potential system due west over the next 7 days
Posted on 8/13/17 at 3:10 pm to rds dc
I would think that is a good thing if it takes that path into that location. Very unlikely that it could make such a drastic turn north from that path and into the gulf.
Posted on 8/13/17 at 3:29 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
I would think that is a good thing if it takes that path into that location. Very unlikely that it could make such a drastic turn north from that path and into the gulf.
Individual model runs don't mean much at this range, however, the 12z Euro control run is similar to the UK and it eventually hits Texas. The only thing that we can really take away from the models at this point is that conditions appear favorable for a system to form and that the pattern indicates it may take more of a westward track.
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