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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - August - Potential Tropical Cyclone #9
Posted on 8/13/17 at 4:09 pm to Ponchy Tiger
Posted on 8/13/17 at 4:09 pm to Ponchy Tiger
12z Euro EPS shows basically every possible outcome 
The operational model is developing the area near 35W and this image is showing a westward track density towards the WCAB & Gulf for that:
The operational model is developing the area near 35W and this image is showing a westward track density towards the WCAB & Gulf for that:
2
Posted on 8/13/17 at 4:12 pm to rds dc
Millions of dollars put into that model smh
Posted on 8/13/17 at 4:45 pm to rds dc
Gert makes 7 named storms for the season, only 3 seasons have accomplished that this early with the last being 2005
Posted on 8/14/17 at 6:51 am to rds dc
00z Euro has the wave we are watching developing and moving into the Gulf
Posted on 8/14/17 at 7:55 am to rds dc
100% chance it hits Tony Time's house
Posted on 8/14/17 at 8:10 am to rds dc
quote:
Euro (this is not 91L) has a system entering the Islands with a very strong ridge over the top, this is a setup that could get something into the Gulf
It appears that the NHC is going to label the entire area of disturbed weather as 91L. So for now, the system of interest is 91L with NHC going 60%.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 8:19 am to rds dc
So this appears to be one actually worth watching?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 8:46 am to TDsngumbo
When would it enter the gulf?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 8:50 am to Paul Allen
I think 216 to 240 hours from now. We've got some time...
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:33 am to rds dc
00z Euro EPS tracks (image courtesy of @ryanmaue) Cluster heading towards Gulf is 91L, 2nd cluster curving out to sea would be future 92L, and 3rd cluster off the East Coast is Gert.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:41 am to rds dc
Looks like the NHC has marked this about 10 degrees further west. The Euro is the model that was already taking this into account the best. Many of the other models need to be thrown out until they run again with the new initialization point.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:51 am to rds dc
so it could be getting into the Gulf by next Thursday, eh? Interdasting...
Landrieu: New Orleans drainage system never fully operational; city 'vulnerable' for next two weeks
Landrieu: New Orleans drainage system never fully operational; city 'vulnerable' for next two weeks
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:53 am to rds dc
Looks curving to NW. No gulf action. DOn't want to deal with power outages.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:31 am to Jimmy2shoes
quote:
Looks curving to NW. No gulf action. DOn't want to deal with power outages.
What model are you looking at? The GFS is absolute garbage and is developing the wrong area anyway.
Edit: Or are you saying you don't want any gulf action? Pretty hard to make out what you are saying.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 10:38 am
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:58 am to rds dc
With them 2 systems being so close how will they effect each other? Could they become
One huge system?
One huge system?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:05 pm to BigB0882
quote:
The GFS is absolute garbage and is developing the wrong area anyway.
The updated GFS is really struggling with storm formation (genesis is major challenge for all models) and appears to have a significant low bias. The older version was spin up happy and this appears to be an over correction. It also had a known issue with the vortex tracker relocation but the fix seems to be working and it is doing pretty well once a system forms.
Regardless, 91L has a large associated pouch and will probably be slow to organize. So it will take some time to sort things out.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:07 pm to rt3
Maybe Mitch should have invested more of his time ensuring the city's drainage systems and pumping stations were functioning one hundred percent before hurricane season arrived instead of pandering to the local dindu nuffins' and their desire to remove all of those oppressive, hurtful,racist, and murderous monuments! A heavy rainfall event, or Lord forbid, a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane may very well completely flood the majority of the city causing extensive property damage and loss of life but at least the murders,car jackings,and muggings will quickly subside now that the evil white man's racist statues have been removed from our once peaceful chocolate city!
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:09 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
With them 2 systems being so close how will they effect each other? Could they become
One huge system?
It happened back in the 90's and the systems didn't change much.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:15 pm to OGJangalang
quote:
OGJangalang
plz KYS
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:25 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
He's not really wrong
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