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re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:54 pm to Walking the Earth
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:54 pm to Walking the Earth
Ive asked him what he is basing his western shift on and he doesnt respond
This post was edited on 10/7/17 at 12:55 pm
1
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:55 pm to The Boat
good pt
regardless i have ~20 police cars, armored trucks, NOPD mounted units, special ops vans, and drones outside my house so im safe.
thx mitch
regardless i have ~20 police cars, armored trucks, NOPD mounted units, special ops vans, and drones outside my house so im safe.
thx mitch
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:55 pm to rocket31
Is there some sort of wind prediction map. I live in Thibodaux and am wondering what kind of winds we will be having. Hopefully nothing hard enough to lose power.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:56 pm to The Boat
The center is not in the range of the radar yet so no hourly advisories.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:56 pm to deuce985
1pm advisory still has cone to the east of NOLA but it looks like the turn needs to begin now to maintain consensus with the forecasted track
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:56 pm to shoelessjoe
quote:
Thibodaux
Gusts to 30-40 mph maybe at the worst
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:57 pm to Cosmo
Isn’t the turn not supposed to happen for another 4 hours?
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:58 pm to Cosmo
Recon overlaid with NHC forecast points. Nate is definitely west of forecast.
Not a huge difference but enough to make NOLA nervous. The turn north than NNE is coming, just still a matter of the exact when of it.
This post was edited on 10/7/17 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:58 pm to Dizz
quote:
Isn’t the turn not supposed to happen for another 4 hours?
Who knows. Some people said by 1 we should know
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:58 pm to Dizz
quote:
Isn’t the turn not supposed to happen for another 4 hours?
Not until 6 according to my man David Bernard, I've liked that dude ever since katrina.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:59 pm to NOLA Brew Bus
I'd imagine they base the cone off of normal distribution of the models, so outside of the cone would be exponentially less likely. Idk what Sigma values they use, but here is a basic pic. As the models differ, Sigma values increase, which makes the cone larger
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:00 pm to Cosmo
I don't want to scare anyone just saying looking at the radar loops, NHC path and models it looks very SLIGHTLY west. It's an opinion that's all. I've heard them also mentioning it on local news stations with the updates. I don't know what David Bernard said as I didn't watch that station. I doubt he's trying to make people scared just inform them because the storm is moving so fast. I'm not sure what he's talking about on the turn because I'm pretty sure they were projecting that on the paths tonight and even the NHC cone shows that.
NHC is sticking firm on it and as I said a few posts back, I don't see how the models could have a lot of error in them this close to land.
Be nice if RDS would chime in with his opinion on the tracks.
NHC is sticking firm on it and as I said a few posts back, I don't see how the models could have a lot of error in them this close to land.
Be nice if RDS would chime in with his opinion on the tracks.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:00 pm to Cosmo
quote:
quote:
Thibodaux
Gusts to 30-40 mph maybe at the worst
Yea looks like about a 30% chance of Tropical Storm force winds.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:00 pm to Cosmo
Thanks Cosmo. I was working nights and thought it was going towards Florida and Thursday night learned it was coming towards us. Needless to say just found out my generator is shot!!
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:01 pm to Hammertime
It just got bumped up into category two, bet mitch wishing he called for a mandatory evac now huh.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:01 pm to deuce985
quote:
I don't want to scare anyone just saying looking at the radar loops, NHC path and models it looks very SLIGHTLY west.
David Bernard just confirmed it's west of projected path, close to 89 longitude.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:02 pm to deuce985
The cone extends west to lake borgne
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:02 pm to Duzz
people here are pissed there's even a 7pm curfew. 
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:02 pm to Swagga
Wind gusts up to 110mph on the latest advisory.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 1:03 pm to t00f
quote:
Nasty line of storms headed this way
that's nasty nate for ya
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