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Started By
Message
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:41 am to Duke
quote:
The cone is the same width its been all season.
May your track lie within the cone for all of your days.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:50 am to rds dc
quote:
May your track lie within the cone for all of your days.
You need to put this at the top of every hurricane thread.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:57 am to LegendInMyMind
12z GFS, a bit stronger and north vs the last couple of runs.


Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:00 am to rds dc
A northern run is more of a dangerous storm surge for the bay than a southern run?
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:01 am to rds dc
quote:
May your track lie within the cone for all of your days.
Damn, I’ve just been trying to put my cone in the tract for all these days.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:19 am to rds dc
quote:
12z GFS, a bit stronger and north vs the last couple of runs.
Tampa put their shield up
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:22 am to Paul Allen
Tampa does not want this just north of the bay.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:23 am to Duke
Even if it’s south of Tampa the storm surge would still be bad for St Pete and the same areas affected by Helene.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:38 am to GeauxLSUGRL
quote:
Hmmmp, crazy!!
Yes, you’re crazy, we all agree
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:39 am to rds dc
More nervous today than I was yesterday for some reason.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:47 am to LanierSpots
Everyone can make all the jokes they want, but while I don't fear for our safety, having these storms come bearing down on you leads to a lot of trepidation. We are 8 miles from the Gulf. Helene brought over a foot of sand in to people's garages and yards, and she wrecked the Carolinas. Milton is a couple of days out. Just wait and see.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:56 am to Duke
In Venice for a bit and it is raining buckets down here
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:03 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
A northern run is more of a dangerous storm surge for the bay than a southern run?
Yes. If it goes south, it sucks the water out of the bay with some flooding. If it goes north, it’s a tidal wave of water coming in.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:07 pm to TheOcean
I wonder how much storm direction impacts storm surge, if at all. It makes sense in my brain that northern moving storms hitting the north gulf coast will really going to pile up the water into the coast, particularly on the west side of the storm where everything moving in the same direction.
But a storm moving near due east with the first impact winds moving north . . .
But a storm moving near due east with the first impact winds moving north . . .
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:09 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
But a storm moving near due east with the first impact winds moving north . . .
The shape of the bay plays a big part in this scenario, too.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:11 pm to ColoradoTiger1987
quote:
Yes. If it goes south, it sucks the water out of the bay with some flooding.
Which is wild to see.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:25 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
But a storm moving near due east with the first impact winds moving north . . .
My guess, The first winds moving north pushes water to the storms “left” and in front. As the storm moves east the winds come from the SE and then the east pushing water with them. That pushes water towards the shore.
If I’m wrong someone correct me.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:36 pm to LegendInMyMind
Reminds me of Mont-Saint-Michel Abbey in Normandy.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:58 pm to rds dc
One thing I’ve noticed with the usually overdone 12z hurricane models is they bomb out to Cat 4 but they show a weakening upon landfall down to Cat 1. I know the surge would still be bad but hopefully it’s a trend to a weaker hurricane.
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