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re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...

Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:41 am to
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102541 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:41 am to
Friend of mine told me yesterday he got tickets to Burt Kreischer in Tampa next weekend for a hurricane relief(Helene) show


Told him he might want to reconsider
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21488 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:41 am to
quote:

The cone is the same width its been all season.


May your track lie within the cone for all of your days.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75025 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:50 am to
quote:

May your track lie within the cone for all of your days.

You need to put this at the top of every hurricane thread.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21488 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:57 am to
12z GFS, a bit stronger and north vs the last couple of runs.

Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78304 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:00 am to
A northern run is more of a dangerous storm surge for the bay than a southern run?
Posted by Traffic Circle
Down the Rabbit Hole
Member since Nov 2013
5020 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:01 am to
quote:

May your track lie within the cone for all of your days.


Damn, I’ve just been trying to put my cone in the tract for all these days.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102541 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:19 am to
quote:

12z GFS, a bit stronger and north vs the last couple of runs.


Tampa put their shield up
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:22 am to
Tampa does not want this just north of the bay.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78304 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:23 am to
Even if it’s south of Tampa the storm surge would still be bad for St Pete and the same areas affected by Helene.
Posted by kc8876
Member since May 2012
3709 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:38 am to
quote:

Hmmmp, crazy!!


Yes, you’re crazy, we all agree
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
71038 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:39 am to
More nervous today than I was yesterday for some reason.


Posted by liz18lsu
Member since Feb 2009
18042 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:47 am to
Everyone can make all the jokes they want, but while I don't fear for our safety, having these storms come bearing down on you leads to a lot of trepidation. We are 8 miles from the Gulf. Helene brought over a foot of sand in to people's garages and yards, and she wrecked the Carolinas. Milton is a couple of days out. Just wait and see.
Posted by TheOcean
#honeyfriedchicken
Member since Aug 2004
45903 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:56 am to
In Venice for a bit and it is raining buckets down here
Posted by ColoradoTiger1987
Tampa
Member since Jan 2019
1645 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

A northern run is more of a dangerous storm surge for the bay than a southern run?


Yes. If it goes south, it sucks the water out of the bay with some flooding. If it goes north, it’s a tidal wave of water coming in.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5876 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:07 pm to
I wonder how much storm direction impacts storm surge, if at all. It makes sense in my brain that northern moving storms hitting the north gulf coast will really going to pile up the water into the coast, particularly on the west side of the storm where everything moving in the same direction.

But a storm moving near due east with the first impact winds moving north . . .



Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75025 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

But a storm moving near due east with the first impact winds moving north . . .

The shape of the bay plays a big part in this scenario, too.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75025 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

Yes. If it goes south, it sucks the water out of the bay with some flooding.

Which is wild to see.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42562 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

But a storm moving near due east with the first impact winds moving north . . .

My guess, The first winds moving north pushes water to the storms “left” and in front. As the storm moves east the winds come from the SE and then the east pushing water with them. That pushes water towards the shore.

If I’m wrong someone correct me.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30397 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:36 pm to
Reminds me of Mont-Saint-Michel Abbey in Normandy.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5034 posts
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:58 pm to
One thing I’ve noticed with the usually overdone 12z hurricane models is they bomb out to Cat 4 but they show a weakening upon landfall down to Cat 1. I know the surge would still be bad but hopefully it’s a trend to a weaker hurricane.
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