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re: TS Jerry, TS Karen & More Areas to Watch - Peak Season
Posted on 9/9/19 at 12:07 pm to Cosmo
Posted on 9/9/19 at 12:07 pm to Cosmo
quote:
So youre saying we are in the clear for the year.
No, he stated that in his opinion, conditions are FAVORABLE for the development of Hurricanes until AFTER the first week in October.
1
Posted on 9/9/19 at 12:39 pm to Champagne
The long term GFS since Thursday has shown a TS or hurricane somewhere roughly between the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola a week from today.
Here is today's run...
Here is today's run...
Posted on 9/9/19 at 1:04 pm to NorthEndZone
yes and it looks like both the Euro and GFS from that point bring it NW, north of the Bahamas (missing them) and taking it pretty close to eastern tip of NC.
This post was edited on 9/9/19 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 9/9/19 at 2:53 pm to otowntiger
It's good that the models sweep it away from the GoM, at least for the moment.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 8:16 pm to rds dc
There hasn't been much to talk about the last few days as we wait for a complex wave breaking event that was set off by the tropical transition of Dorian. This same wave breaking event will get influenced by Gabrielle as it moves into the high latitudes.
Eventually a surge in the trades will allow future 95L to catch up with 94L but it's unclear what that interaction will look like. Also, the wave breaking event set off by Dorian will leave a PV streamer out in front of these two waves. PV streamers enhance shear and bring down drier air from the mid latitudes.
The 18z GFS develops future 95L to the point that it has sufficient convection to fracture and eventually displace the PV streamer.
This is important since a stronger more organized system will be able to influence the PV streamer and a weaker system could encounter shear from the PV, keeping it weaker longer. The sooner a system develops the better.
As these waves move west they will encounter an increasingly favorable large scale pattern as a KW pushes into the basin.
In the chart above, time moves towards the bottom while the waves move from west to east across the equator. The blue shading is an indication of rising air, more favorable for development. So as we move later in September the Atlantic background state becomes more favorable. KW events are often associated with a burst of tropical activity.
Why is this concerning? The Day 10 Euro EPS, below, shows a stout ridge over the Eastern US. The ensemble models do show some pretty good skill out beyond Day 5 with the 500mb pattern. Also, the recent North Atlantic wave breaking and the Pacific pattern also favor an Eastern US ridge.
Now the D10 Euro EPS tracks, there is a pretty clear bifurcation in the data. A system that develops sooner and is stronger feels the trough moving out into the Atlantic sooner. This sequence would probably send a system curving off to the east of the ridge (blue circle). A weaker slower developing system probably gets trapped underneath the ridge (red circle).
Still a long ways to go. Will a system develop? How far north will it be when it develops? Timing of troughs? Strength of ridge? Too many questions to answer at this time but the large scale pattern does seem to indicate that there could be trouble after mid-month.
Eventually a surge in the trades will allow future 95L to catch up with 94L but it's unclear what that interaction will look like. Also, the wave breaking event set off by Dorian will leave a PV streamer out in front of these two waves. PV streamers enhance shear and bring down drier air from the mid latitudes.
The 18z GFS develops future 95L to the point that it has sufficient convection to fracture and eventually displace the PV streamer.
This is important since a stronger more organized system will be able to influence the PV streamer and a weaker system could encounter shear from the PV, keeping it weaker longer. The sooner a system develops the better.
As these waves move west they will encounter an increasingly favorable large scale pattern as a KW pushes into the basin.
In the chart above, time moves towards the bottom while the waves move from west to east across the equator. The blue shading is an indication of rising air, more favorable for development. So as we move later in September the Atlantic background state becomes more favorable. KW events are often associated with a burst of tropical activity.
Why is this concerning? The Day 10 Euro EPS, below, shows a stout ridge over the Eastern US. The ensemble models do show some pretty good skill out beyond Day 5 with the 500mb pattern. Also, the recent North Atlantic wave breaking and the Pacific pattern also favor an Eastern US ridge.
Now the D10 Euro EPS tracks, there is a pretty clear bifurcation in the data. A system that develops sooner and is stronger feels the trough moving out into the Atlantic sooner. This sequence would probably send a system curving off to the east of the ridge (blue circle). A weaker slower developing system probably gets trapped underneath the ridge (red circle).
Still a long ways to go. Will a system develop? How far north will it be when it develops? Timing of troughs? Strength of ridge? Too many questions to answer at this time but the large scale pattern does seem to indicate that there could be trouble after mid-month.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 8:29 pm to rds dc
That’s exactly what I was thinking.
Y’all beat me to it.
JK
Y’all beat me to it.
JK
Posted on 9/9/19 at 8:31 pm to doubleb
Time to get some emergency declarations going. Sign AL up.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 8:32 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:15 pm to rds dc
love the graphic that always loves to send one up NO's pooper whether it's a doomcane or a TS. those models love hitting between vermillion bay and morgan city.
This post was edited on 9/9/19 at 10:17 pm
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:28 pm to rds dc
Thanks for the analysis as usual rds. I hope to God that if something does develop it goes out fishing in the open Atlantic. The Bahamas need good weather for several months, but I know the weather patterns don't listen to that.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 4:13 am to NorthEndZone
quote:make that several years.
The Bahamas need good weather for several months
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:11 am to rds dc
What is this new one that should head to the Gulf? Low chances but things spin up fast in that area. Once in the Gulf what do the steering currents look like?
Posted on 9/10/19 at 8:22 am to Champagne
Point of View
Keller Williams
Keller Williams
Posted on 9/10/19 at 8:29 am to Champagne
quote:
What is "PV"
Potential vorticity. It's, uh, complicated.
quote:
KW
Kelvin Wave.
All you really need to understand is a Kelvin wave passing through the Atlantic is condusive to tropical systems.
FWIW, rds wrote us out about the best explaination of what's going to be happen as you'll find anywhere.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 8:45 am to Duke
Kelvin Wave I guess is a measure of potential heat created by a sea/atmosphere interface.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 8:46 am to BPTiger
quote:
Point of View Keller Williams
Swing and a Miss. Not remotely funny. Try again.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 9:14 am to Duke
so to put in in laymans terms....there is either going to be a strong storm swept out to the Eastern Atlantic, or a weak development kinda crawling into the Gulf??
Posted on 9/10/19 at 9:37 am to scott8811
quote:
there is either going to be a strong storm swept out to the Eastern Atlantic, or a weak development kinda crawling into the Gulf??
Assuming 94 or 95 L do form up, that's the idea.
A deeper storm (stronger) would most likely feel a weakness between highs that would turn it out. A weaker system doesn't and gets tucked under the high that builds in.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 9:48 am to Duke
quote:
Duke
Sorry for the mini hijack, anything in the long range forecast that may show any cool fronts making it down to south La?
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