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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:00 pm to lsugolfredman
quote:
ropical Storm appears to be the strongest outcome between Louisiana and Alabama.
I believe that landmass has yet to be named.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:02 pm to PsychTiger
son of a bitch.
I've had 2 projects on hold for months due to the constant rain and now that I'm about to start them this happens.
I've had 2 projects on hold for months due to the constant rain and now that I'm about to start them this happens.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:03 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
I believe that landmass has yet to be named.
Hurricanes don't even want to go there.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:03 pm to rds dc
Need the rain very bad here, but no wind. 
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:04 pm to MrLarson
quote:
Hurricanes don't even want to go there.
Not that anyone would notice if they did. All the focus would be on nearby places such as New Orleans or Mobile.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:07 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
I've had 2 projects on hold for months due to the constant rain and now that I'm about to start them this happens.
Think of the OT when they start but somehow I'll bet you're on salary
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:18 pm to jimbeam
quote:
So we’re looking at major hurricane potential or no?
Can't say but no model is showing anything of significance. For several days now models have been showing an area of disturbed weather moving across the Gulf but none have shown a hurricane. Based purely off the models, probably not much but maybe a low end TS
Obviously, that could change but right now it doesn't appear to pose any kind of serious threat.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:22 pm to MrLarson
quote:
Think of the OT when they start but somehow I'll bet you're on salary
Yeah, but I have an impatient client
Posted on 9/10/19 at 7:31 pm to rds dc
God I hope not as I am having a 60x60 pole barn built at my property at the moment....
Posted on 9/10/19 at 10:52 pm to rds dc
Needs to hurry up and hit land. Those type of systems make me nervous when we're at the peak season and it's almost 6 days out. It could go straight into some super fuel waters and then it would just need some other favorable conditions to see it start to gather. It has already looked like it was getting a little better organized.
I don't trust computer models and intensity projections especially in GoM waters. The waters it's going into is over 90f on that path.
I don't trust computer models and intensity projections especially in GoM waters. The waters it's going into is over 90f on that path.
This post was edited on 9/10/19 at 10:55 pm
Posted on 9/10/19 at 10:53 pm to rds dc
Sounds good
Posted on 9/10/19 at 10:58 pm to jimbeam
Advocate starting the train
quote:
A tropical disturbance is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, hurricane forecasters said Tuesday night. And its chances of developing into a tropical depression within five days have increased from 30% to 40%.
As of 7 p.m. Tuesday, the disturbance was over Turks and Caicos, the National Hurricane Center said. It's expected to move northwest over the next few days across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula, dropping heavy rain as it goes.
It is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend and forecasters say "conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico."
As of Tuesday night, it was being given a medium chance of developing into at least a tropical depression, up from a low chance earlier in the day.
The storm categories, in increasing strength, are tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane.
An expected path for the potential system hasn't yet been determined.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 11:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
Can't say but no model is showing anything of significance. For several days now models have been showing an area of disturbed weather moving across the Gulf but none have shown a hurricane. Based purely off the models, probably not much but maybe a low end TS
You know very well the models struggle with intensity.
Multiple models called for no development for the system that became Dorian and even the NHC had Dorian on the Florida coast as a tropical storm mere days before she was a Cat 3+.
Way too soon to be making any intensity forecasts for this one.
It may be nothing but it could also become a major concern.
Posted on 9/10/19 at 11:15 pm to deuce985
quote:
I don't trust computer models and intensity projections especially in GoM waters. The waters it's going into is over 90f on that path
It's going to be rolling in with an upper low, which is going to shear it most of the way in. That's why the models aren't doing much with it.
If it can get in the NE side of the upper low, it'll have a window to organize but currently it looks like it happens too late to do very much.
This post was edited on 9/10/19 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 9/10/19 at 11:22 pm to Tiger985
quote:
Way too soon to be making any intensity forecasts for this one.
First words he typed were literally “can’t say.”
Go get your shine box
Posted on 9/10/19 at 11:38 pm to Tiger985
That's a way more complex situation than you have here with this disturbance...
That had possibilities on the table it could intensify and it did because it went to all the worst case scenarios missing land multiple times. Also, Dorian said frick all on the path it took. Not really a comparable situation.
That had possibilities on the table it could intensify and it did because it went to all the worst case scenarios missing land multiple times. Also, Dorian said frick all on the path it took. Not really a comparable situation.
This post was edited on 9/10/19 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 9/11/19 at 12:32 am to rds dc
Alright just in time to frick my shut up great.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:14 am to Tiger985
Wunderground.com has a great blog for other wishcasters like you.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:34 am to tLSU
This post was edited on 9/11/19 at 6:36 am
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