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re: Hurricane Isaias - Pensacola Beach to Navarre Beach Under the Gun

Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:42 pm to
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
111389 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

Well, it will probably be on the "dirty" side of the storm and surge is going to be a factor.


The dirty 30A.
Posted by sicboy
Because Awesome
Member since Nov 2010
79895 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:42 pm to
It's a lot of dirty until you get to the Truman Show.


ETA But what do i know. I worked up and down 30A for years but haven't been that way since probably 2015. No idea what it's like now.
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 12:44 pm
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
180889 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:43 pm to
And now we are on the brink of only needing to blend the AI and the Korean model
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
44169 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

Is 30A gonna be in good shape after this storm?


Hard to say. All of that construction is fairly new and built to withstand more than what this storm is packing right now.

Surge is going to be weird there with the mix of bluffs and lower areas.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
80552 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

only needing to blend the AI and the Korean model


I have a few specialty sites I could recommend if you are ready to jot them down....
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 12:46 pm
Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22647 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:46 pm to
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
112017 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

Is 30A gonna be in good shape after this storm?


The discussions regarding all the beachside owners who claim “private beach” outside their properties and the costs it will take to replenish said beaches are gonna be LIT!
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
7153 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

Surge is going to be weird there with the mix of bluffs and lower areas.


There are some lower spots around Dune Allen, Grayton, Etc but for the most part its all high enough to withstand a surge. Destin is going to be the one dealing with surge damage.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14789 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

Landfall should be about 7P Central, correct?


All of the regional hurricane models show it just offshore at their 7 PM CDT positions.

Should be about 8:00 or 8:30 PM CDT landfall.
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 12:49 pm
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
180889 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:47 pm to
Next 6-12 hours will be critical
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
44169 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

I worked up and down 30A for years but haven't been that way since probably 2015. No idea what it's like now.


It’s blown up all the way to PCB. Not much acreage left to build on.
Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22647 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:48 pm to
We’ll know more in the next 24 hours.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
7153 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

The discussions regarding all the beachside owners who claim “private beach” outside their properties and the costs it will take to replenish said beaches are gonna be LIT!


I agree. I've been an advocate that private land is private, including the beach, but with that said, I would not expect the county to replenish that private beach.
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30753 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

Next 6-12 hours will be critical


On the contrary, I think the next 96 hours will tell us a lot
Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22647 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:49 pm to
The other recon plane just clocked a 134kt. Unreal.

ETA: And two 136kt readings after that. Shook.
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 12:50 pm
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
25318 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

I think people get Scenic confused with 30A, which isn't even in Destin.


West to east
Navarre -> Mary Esther -> FWB -> Destin -> Miramar -> 30A -> PCB

Its almost 75 miles from Navarre to the east end of PCB.

With a 30 mile hurricane force wind zone a Navarre landfall would give FWB and Destin hurricane winds, but Miramar and 30A would only have hurricane gusts.

Setting that aside there will be major issues from Choctawatchee Bay pushing storm surge into residential areas of Destin, Miramar and Santa Rosa Beach not to mention the gulf storm surge impacting parts of Mary Esther and FWB that are really low.

Opal wiped out the HWY 98 causeway between Destin and FWB so I could see that being an issue here as well.

Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
44169 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

The discussions regarding all the beachside owners who claim “private beach” outside their properties and the costs it will take to replenish said beaches are gonna be LIT!


Dude! Popcorn gif
Posted by Bwmdx
Member since Dec 2018
3515 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:50 pm to
Great, my house in Niceville on the water 5 miles east of Fort. Sandbagged the generator today, hopefully good enough.
Posted by sicboy
Because Awesome
Member since Nov 2010
79895 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

It’s blown up all the way to PCB. Not much acreage left to build on.


That's all it was in the mid to late 2000's. Crammed subdivision after crammed subdivision.
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
21378 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

And two 136kt readings after that.

That is Cat 4. Wow.
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