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Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:51 pm to BigBro
Is there any possible way this thing moves back west?
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:53 pm to AU_251
It's been a constant shift east with every projection. I would be shocked if so.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:53 pm to AU_251
No. The track works only one way, to the East. It can’t adjust back.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:53 pm to AU_251
The two new 136kt flight level readings calculate to 122.4kt / 140mph at surface level (if using a standard 0.90 reduction factor) or 118kt / 136mph at surface level (if using 0.87 reduction factor noted by Pettus).
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:53 pm to AU_251
ton of lightning in the NE and Eastern eyewall
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:53 pm to BigBro
156 mph at flight level even at 80% reduction to sea surface gives 125 mph.
The NHC will officially go higher than the current 120, but how much higher?
The NHC will officially go higher than the current 120, but how much higher?
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:54 pm to AU_251
No back west. The only people who need worry about the path are those wobbles save or frick.
Impressive flight level winds. Upper divergence continues to support enough convection to fight the shear off. At least to this point
Impressive flight level winds. Upper divergence continues to support enough convection to fight the shear off. At least to this point
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:54 pm to sicboy
My in laws in Crestview but I feel my house is more hurricane proof than theirs. I’m just worried about surge. 10 ft puts it 5 below my house.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:54 pm to sicboy
quote:
t's been a constant shift east with every projection. I would be shocked if so.
That's how much Florida sucks.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:56 pm to sicboy
Best case scenario is for the onshore winds to miss the mouth of Choctawatchee Bay.
It’s going to be close.
It’s going to be close.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:56 pm to AU_251
A bit of encouraging news (at least for those in Pensacola) is that all the short term models are honing in on the right side of the cone. The bulls eye seems to be Ft Walton now.
All the models show a pretty wicked northern and western eyewall though so the area from Pensacola Beach to Navarre still looks to get rocked by the eyewall.
Everyone tends to focus on the eastern and northeastern eyewall (for good reasons especially with storm surge) but having experienced the northern and northwestern eyewall of Sally that part of the eyewall is no joke.
The highest wind gusts from Sally were in the northern and western eyewall including 121 mph at Fort Morgan and a 129 mph gust (about 40 feet off the ground) at the northern end of Wolf Bay
All the models show a pretty wicked northern and western eyewall though so the area from Pensacola Beach to Navarre still looks to get rocked by the eyewall.
Everyone tends to focus on the eastern and northeastern eyewall (for good reasons especially with storm surge) but having experienced the northern and northwestern eyewall of Sally that part of the eyewall is no joke.
The highest wind gusts from Sally were in the northern and western eyewall including 121 mph at Fort Morgan and a 129 mph gust (about 40 feet off the ground) at the northern end of Wolf Bay
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:56 pm to NorthEndZone
Friend of mine lives in the west end of gulf breeze and is really hard headed. Should I tell her she needs to haul arse again?
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:57 pm to Govt Tide
1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 09
Location: 28.4°N 87.2°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Location: 28.4°N 87.2°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:57 pm to lsuman25
Pressure hasn’t dropped. At least there’s that.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:59 pm to AHM21
Levi just dropped new video saying he thinks it is maxed out
Should be slow weakening to landfall but still gonna be a borderline 3 probably
Should be slow weakening to landfall but still gonna be a borderline 3 probably
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:59 pm to AU_251
quote:
Is there any possible way this thing moves back west?
Based on this image from Storm2k, it doesn’t look like a turn west is possible.
Link: Boundary
If you are talking a small shift, then yes, that is always true. Gulf storms tend to go slightly right of the target in my experience, but this is backwards of most storms, so maybe it goes slightly left.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 12:59 pm to lsuman25
I wonder if it makes Cat 4.
You are going to see some surprised people if that happens.
October storms are a motherfricker.
You are going to see some surprised people if that happens.
October storms are a motherfricker.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:00 pm to Bwmdx
My dad sent me a picture of his back yard, crap ton of tall trees around his fence line and close to his house.
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