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re: Hurricane Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:24 am to Shorts Guy
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:24 am to Shorts Guy
quote:
Some models still have it going over the New Orleans area, but the cone centers over the Mobile area.
I think some models are programmed to show storms going right up New Orleans.
I couldn’t tell you the last time a hurricane that had the slightest threat to form, enter, or travel through the gulf wasn’t at some point predicted to land right up NOLA’s arse.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:25 am to ell_13
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:25 am to East Coast Band
quote:
Living about 200 miles inland from the coast, one thing I've learned is that they almost 100% of the time over predict the storms strength as it moves over land. In other words, you're not gonna get a tropical storm in Kentucky
I typically agree but this is a fast moving October storm. Helene went way inland.
My biggest gripe with a deep run inland is that land might not be the only weakening factor.
A H3/H4 landfall at that forward speed could really cut deep.
There was Helene which produced TS conditions in the NC mountains from a central FL gulf landfall.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:26 am to Shorts Guy
G’on now! Git!
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:31 am to Jack Daniel
quote:
How furiously are yall hacking off now that there is a named storm?
Not at all
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:31 am to Mempho
HH currently in the storm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:32 am to Jack Daniel
quote:
How furiously are yall hacking off now that there is a named storm?
What is wrong with you?
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:33 am to ell_13
quote:
You know nothing of mathematical models and their complexity. Stfu
you would think with with the advancements in AI this would be solved. i’m not impressed that’s all i’m saying, looks like we’re still just guessing
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:38 am to lsuman25
quote:
HH currently in the storm
Will be interesting to see if anything changes based off actual data... Yesterdays recon was apparently their small jet and hundreds of miles away from assumed center of circulation.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:40 am to Lsut81
quote:
Will be interesting to see if anything changes based off actual data... Yesterdays recon was apparently their small jet and hundreds of miles away from assumed center of circulation.
the upper levels are really important for this type of set up where you have a trough to the west, ridge to the east, and a sub-tropical jet stream all in play.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:41 am to JS87
Center of cone pegged to mobile bay
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:41 am to Craft
Gotta be able to give it accurate data to get accurate results, lot of factors in weather.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:41 am to gaetti15
I haven't looked but i assume another upper level mission will happen today
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:42 am to gaetti15
Please forgive me if this has already been discussed in this thread as it's 16 hours old
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Hurricane Isaias will be an excellent test for AI modeling. The AI has struggled all year with storms before they formed. The AI has steadily brought a hurricane to the far western Florida Panhandle this weekend. The old school physics models are closer to New Orleans. This below is the latest Google AI model. Big implications on who gets impacted this weekend. AI insists its the FL Panhandle strike. Physics models insist its eastern Louisiana.
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 7:43 am
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:42 am to Craft
Chaos equations don’t get “solved.” We are talking about fluids on an almost infinitely large scale. The predictions improve as we get better with the variables. And AI will help. It already has. Knowing exactly where a storm system will go and its strength isn’t going to happen.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:42 am to Craft
quote:
you would think with with the advancements in AI this would be solved. i’m not impressed that’s all i’m saying, looks like we’re still just guessing
weather by nature is very chaotic. Good luck predicting chaos (see Jurassic Park).
Plus, remember that all models are bad, but some are useful
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:43 am to lsuman25
quote:
HH currently in the storm
We should have more data by now. I was just tracking it in case the first drop showed something outlandish and waiting on the epic fallout but no data.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:45 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
Center of cone pegged to mobile bay
Y’all just edging oysterpoboy at this point
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 8:18 am
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