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Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:02 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:02 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Also atmospheric conditions and steering patterns are probably different now than they were in 1998, but let's not let that stop him since right this moment they seem on a similar line.
1
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:03 pm to The Boat
They're getting some good hard data right now to put into the global models so I think we'll get a better feel on the path tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how it changes with the new data.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:04 pm to Centinel
quote:
Are you a meteorologist?
Is there a person in this thread who is?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:05 pm to bigpapamac
NOAA9... the upper level recon mission... dropped 3 dropsondes in the NW quadrant of the storm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:05 pm to Kcoyote
I can't remember exactly what rds does but he's pretty much one.
baytiger actually is a meteorologist. Pedro is studying it I believe.
baytiger actually is a meteorologist. Pedro is studying it I believe.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:06 pm to rt3
I still remember old Bob Breck pulling out his Viper track. I miss old crazy Bob.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:07 pm to The Boat
You're acting like the models and meteorologists are just making random guesses
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:07 pm to The Boat
quote:How do you know the models keeping it North are wrong (when they are the two best cited on this board) and the storm hasn't happened yet to say they were wrong.
Are you even watching the path get closer and closer to crossing Hispaniola and Cuba? It's not pretty likely that it won't do that anymore. You're watching these crappy models keeping it north when they've been wrong the entire time so far on this storm. It would be great for the US if they did that.
If you are trolling, kindly stop, please TIA.Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:07 pm to Kcoyote
Yes. There are a couple.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:08 pm to Kcoyote
quote:Touche', however it certainly has a few clowns, well, at least one.
Is there a person in this thread who is?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:08 pm to MrSmith
quote:
You're acting like the models and meteorologists are just making random guesses
You are giving him exactly what he wants.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:08 pm to Duke
quote:
I can't remember exactly what rds does but he's pretty much one.
baytiger actually is a meteorologist. Pedro is studying it I believe.
Have any of them commented on the upturn? It seems by the models that it will happen, but just depends East or West.
Also like to say I know nothing about meteorology, so anyone with knowledge would make me feel better.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:09 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
You are giving him exactly what he wants.
Yeah I took the bait
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:09 pm to The Boat
there's no way of knowing if a models wrong or right until it plays out. Will it turn and hit the northeast (like the gfs initially stated) or sucker punch central la (like the Euro initially stated)? Probably not but there's nothing to say "these models have been wrong the whole time" until this thing is said and done. Chill out.
The fact of the matter is there's still a lot to watch develop and see play out before we know anything for certain about this storm. The only people who really need to be on high alert state side right now are Puerto Rico and the keys because no matter where this ends up they'll likely get something. Outside of that everybody has a reason to keep an eye on this for right now but no reason to be in full on panic mode.
The fact of the matter is there's still a lot to watch develop and see play out before we know anything for certain about this storm. The only people who really need to be on high alert state side right now are Puerto Rico and the keys because no matter where this ends up they'll likely get something. Outside of that everybody has a reason to keep an eye on this for right now but no reason to be in full on panic mode.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 6:10 pm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:09 pm to MrSmith
quote:
You're acting like the models and meteorologists are just making random guesses
Typical errors in a 7-day track forecast are over 500 miles so they basically are.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:09 pm to rt3
quote:
Georges was the reason I started hating Margaret Orr (WDSU meteorologist)
Everybody get out now...! LOL..!
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:11 pm to tiger91
quote:
NOLA evacuated for that one I believe on a Saturday of an LSU home game. And if it wasn't that one it was indeed another one and NOTHING happened and that's why people are sketchy about evacuating. #bettersafethansorry
Dan Borne kept announcing the I-10 closures. By the end of the game, I-10 eastbound was closed at Highland.
We were making jokes before the game that this would give a new meaning to Death Valley, and we'd have a hurricane game to go with the Earthquake Game.
I also member people freaking out because some reporters were standing on the Riverwalk and the Mississippi was flowing the wrong way. They started telling everyone that was just the wind and only the surface was flowing backwards.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:12 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
Have any of them commented on the upturn? It seems by the models that it will happen, but just depends East or West.
That is seems likely, but the drivers are pretty complicated and interconnected so everything from missing land back into the Atlantic to getting in the gulf are still in play because getting the steering right for the models is really difficult.
So we wait and see at this point.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:12 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
there was a local weatherman downplaying the GFS models of having sub 900 system due to the model not referencing a particular data set with something to do with ocean interaction or something of the sort.
I'm not sure what he is referencing but the GFS isn't an atmosphere/ ocean coupled model. We can all agree the GFS solution is on the extreme side of things but the Euro 926 is also very low. Ocean heat content is supportive of Cat 5 and Irma is modeled to have extraordinary outflow. Irma has high end, if not record breaking, potential.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:12 pm to Centinel
Are you more relaxed watching the new GFS? BOUT ALL OF Fla taking her down and she breaks down to nada before GA or SC.
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