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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:13 pm to The Boat
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:13 pm to The Boat
quote:
Typical errors in a 7-day track forecast are over 500 miles so they basically are.
For complex weather systems that are chaotic in nature, this is pretty damn good
Not like a standard linear regression or anything like that in terms of predictions.
0
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:14 pm to Duke
quote:I graduated with a bs in atmospheric sciences this spring. I'm far far from rds/bay level on knowledge though. My interest trailed off the last two years and I learned just enough to get by. I know things that most don't but Im far from being a dependable source.
I can't remember exactly what rds does but he's pretty much one.
baytiger actually is a meteorologist. Pedro is studying it I believe.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:14 pm to cajunangelle
quote:
Are you more relaxed watching the new GFS?
New GFS has me terrified. Looks like PB county going to get run right over from below
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:14 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
Everybody get out now...! LOL..!
I was a kid... my mom & sister, grandparents & great grandparents were in a hotel in Slidell (deep enough to get far enough away from the water... while being close enough to my dad who was on duty in the NOFD)
she did that shite... my great grandparents saw it... woke us all up at like 4 AM and we hoofed it to wherever was the next place we could find a hotel room
ended up just outside Memphis, in Mississippi
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 6:15 pm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:15 pm to rds dc
All I can say is the models today are impressive... When they predicted that loop in Harvey, it did exactly what they said it would do..
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:16 pm to cajunangelle
quote:
Are you more relaxed watching the new GFS? BOUT ALL OF Fla taking her down and she breaks down to nada before GA or SC.
As a lifelong resident of the Gulf Coast, I fully understand the (guilty) "survivors remorse" feeling when somebody else bares the brunt of one of these nasty storms. But, I can't really feel "relaxed" when the "new GFS" essentially shows an entire state getting absolutely obliterated.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:18 pm to St Augustine
Fla is going to be devastated if things continue this way; chin up it may all change and I could get screwed with no lube in the Carolinas. The State is so damned long. Are they thinking bout evacing the Keys?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:19 pm to Kcoyote
quote:it depends on the feature projected to build in over the south central US here in the coming days. Right now the thought seems to be it will build pretty far south which is what will send it into Florida (and also give Louisiana cooler weather). A lot depends on timing and accuracy of that projection which sometimes can be tough to project.
Have any of them commented on the upturn? It seems by the models that it will happen, but just depends East or West.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:19 pm to Kcoyote
quote:It's funny you ask, because the answer is yes.
there a person in this thread who is?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:20 pm to cajunangelle
Congrats on the first post of page 100 of a non-stickied thread!
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:21 pm to cajunangelle
quote:
Are they thinking bout evacing the Keys?
I did not read anywhere that said that but you have to believe on Wednesday or early Thursday, they will if the models dont change
I would not want to be on one of the islands if that bitch come through there
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:22 pm to HubbaBubba
This STILL isn't stickied??? I just keep refreshing ...
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:23 pm to LanierSpots
I feel government may start issuing voluntary evacs soon (late Tuesday possibly) in the keys if current models hold.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:23 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
I would not want to be on one of the islands if that bitch come through there
If I was there and had the luxury of up and leaving, I damn sure would already be gone because I wouldn't want to be on one of those islands and on that highway when everybody realized it was time to go.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:23 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
I would not want to be on one of the islands if that bitch come through there
I had an aunt and uncle who were in the process of building a home during Andrew .. maybe it was just framed up? Anyway, near where the front door was going to be they put a flower pot to "make it homey". They just knew they'd return to NOTHING.
Structure was fine ... the flower pot had been knocked over but not broken.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:25 pm to Pedro
To put some illustrations behind what Pedro is saying - GFS is acting the way it is because it has the trough moving out as Irma approaches.
Hour 48:
Hour 72:
Hour 96:
Hour 120:
Hour 144:
Hour 48:
Hour 72:
Hour 96:
Hour 120:
Hour 144:
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:26 pm to tiger91
quote:
This STILL isn't stickied??? I just keep refreshing ..
Until it takes a major north turn, it won't be necessary. It will stay easily on page 1.
Unless Tigerhoney starts a bunch of threads and/or there is a major civil unrest.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:26 pm to tiger91
NOAA2 found 945 mb at the surface (up 1 mb) on its second pass through the eye
also... due west
also... due west
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:27 pm to rt3
Weakened ever so slightly.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 6:27 pm to RazorBroncs
895?
these are loco.
these are loco.
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