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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:20 am to
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93577 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:20 am to
Only the unintelligent would expect forecast models to tell people where hurricanes will go days in advance with pinpoint accuracy.

Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131388 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:20 am to
Why did you anchor the jeff thread?

Wanted to try and keep the jeff stuff out of this thread
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59237 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:22 am to
Those people were so unprepared they showed the building along the ocean in Naples yesterday I didn't even see anything boarded up.
This post was edited on 9/10/17 at 9:23 am
Posted by ike221
Loo A Vul
Member since Aug 2006
13883 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:22 am to
quote:

bring down a lot of Live Oaks.



I seriously doubt it

Southern Live Oaks are known to withstand hurricane force wind
Posted by PhillipJFry
Member since Sep 2016
1056 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:25 am to
The weather channel is saying that irma is going North and even maybe northeast. That will put it right into the everglades. Can any of our resident experts chime in on that?
Posted by White Roach
Member since Apr 2009
9666 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:27 am to
It'll be raining pythons and alligators?
Posted by tigerpimpbot
Chairman of the Pool Board
Member since Nov 2011
69067 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:27 am to
Looks like it's tracking due north
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:28 am to
Naples is going to get hit dead on.


Has anyone heard from liz lately?

I fell asleep but from what she told us theres a large possibility they will be in that max wind shield.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:29 am to
quote:

The weather channel is saying that irma is going North and even maybe northeast. That will put it right into the everglades. Can any of our resident experts chime in on that?



Irma is tracking slightly west of due north, which should put her on or immediately inside of the western Florida coast. Naples is her next stop.
Posted by GhostofJackson
Speedy Teflon Wizard
Member since Nov 2009
7229 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:29 am to
quote:

I don't believe people will trust those models as much after this storm. They are pretty accurate but when you are talking about 200 miles or greater that makes a big difference just as the people on the west coast of Florida are finding out now. I have a bad feeling about Naples, Clearwater, St. Pete they have no barriers at all against the storm surge.


Most people don't understand how a model works. If there is any chance a storm is even remotely heading your way, you prepare. Hell, I was buying water, topping up on gas, and getting batteries here in NOLA for Irma and it wasn't even supposed to get even close.
Posted by TigerGrad2011
Member since Aug 2016
1592 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:30 am to
Serious question about evacuation. We are in a house about 400 yards off the water in Panama City Beach. It looks like the window to evacuate closes tonight. Does it look like we should evacuate and how far west do we go? Destin, Pensacola, Gulf Shores, Mobile?
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18049 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:30 am to
The storm was 5 days away at that point. Of course it wasn't a pinpoint forecast.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59237 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:30 am to
I agree. The east coast of Florida got a wake up call last year with Hurricane Matthew especially my area. It had been 60 years since we have taken a direct hit. Well I believe the same thing happened in the Tampa area with Irma the ole " it hasn't hit here" mentality set in. It has been over almost a 100 years since that area has taken a direct hit. Believe me the cones on those models not the spaghetti paths will be looked at differently now. Sometimes we all need a reality check.We do live along the coast just like people in Louisiana and Texas do. We just get so used to ignoring what is right in front of us.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:30 am to
Damn Irma is still an intense bitch:



148 mph wind confirmed at the surface.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131388 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:31 am to
quote:

Does it look like we should evacuate


No
Posted by Dick Jacket
Member since Nov 2016
1587 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:32 am to
Pinpoint?

This wasn't even close. This isn't like accidental anal. This is more like predicting sex and only getting a bj.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:32 am to
Yep still getting high wind velocity on R.ScopePro.

What's a little more concerning is she's trying at the last minute to close her eye wall.
Posted by Tiger in NY
Neptune Beach, FL
Member since Sep 2003
31584 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:32 am to
quote:

Southern Live Oaks are known to withstand hurricane force wind


Generally, i agree, but the ground is saturated, and they have no tap root to keep them in the ground.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59237 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:32 am to
I agree my area was a mad house for buying supplies and preparing over a week in advance. Again my area got a reality check from Hurricane Matthew last year.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18049 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:33 am to
What does your local NWS site say about expected storm surge? Also the NHC has a storm surge forecast package. Look on the Irma page for the surge graphic.
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