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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:23 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:23 pm to Jim Rockford
Meanwhile on the Swampgas OT board, there is one post on Irma with no replies. Florida Man apparently gives zero fricks.
0
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:23 pm to GetCocky11
184 hours on top of Miami with a pressure of 894 moving North 
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:24 pm to rds dc
these pressures that the models keep spitting out are super questionable. Run after run the GFS is putting it on the edge of the strongest hurricane ever... and now this?
it's honestly the lowest pressures I've ever seen over multiple model runs.. I'm finding them really hard to believe.
it's honestly the lowest pressures I've ever seen over multiple model runs.. I'm finding them really hard to believe.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:24 pm to rds dc
Keys and Miami-Dade obliterated by this run
881 is nuts but even if it would be 915-920 it would be Cat 5
881 is nuts but even if it would be 915-920 it would be Cat 5
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:24 pm to rt3
the absolute best case scenario from this run is if that High settles over louisiana and mississippi and kicks it back out into the atlantic, like Levi was talking about on his video today.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:24 pm to lsuman25
quote:
184 hours on top of Miami with a pressure of 894 moving North
It is just hard to take that seriously. 894? jeez
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:25 pm to baytiger
You're the expert, but I'll just say that people found the Harvey rainfall projections hard to believe, too.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:26 pm to GetCocky11
1935 Labor Day Hurricane path. 892mb observed.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:26 pm to rt3
Each run that N turn gets pushed further and further west. I don't want to frick with Irma.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:28 pm to rds dc
quote:what are the implications of this ridge?
Pretty stout ridge building over the top from Canada..
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:28 pm to baytiger
quote:
these pressures that the models keep spitting out are super questionable. Run after run the GFS is putting it on the edge of the strongest hurricane ever... and now this?
Do the models struggle near the lower end of their pressure ranges? Just guessing.
These pressures are hard to believe but it's pretty consistent across runs. Taking this to be a signal it's going to be really powerful, just not as powerful as some models are throwing out.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:28 pm to Jim Rockford
Still basically a cat 3-4 after traversing the entire Florida peninsula. Irma may end up being the Bugs Bunny gif.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:29 pm to rt3
Right up Fla on Sept 11. Miami and the keys are fricked.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:29 pm to Rox
yea that is what is worth watching the south and west movement with the models before the north turn.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:29 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
It is just hard to take that seriously. 894? jeez
even then... it has to be off by 50mb+ to not be a significantly disastrous hurricane making landfall somewhere in the USA
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:30 pm to lsuman25
That time the GFS destroyed Miami...
This post was edited on 9/3/17 at 11:34 pm
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:31 pm to Jim Rockford
the difference is that these are projections 8 days out vs. projections 3 days out for Harvey
GFS is notorious for doing crazy things after 120 hours or so.
Euro doesn't have anywhere close to these extreme low pressures either.
GFS is notorious for doing crazy things after 120 hours or so.
Euro doesn't have anywhere close to these extreme low pressures either.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:31 pm to CCT
quote:
what are the implications of this ridge?
helping push away the low pressure system that could push Irma harmlessly back out to sea before it can pick Irma up
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:32 pm to rds dc
And orlando, daytona, st. augustine, jacksonville, and everything in between.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:33 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
And orlando, daytona, st. augustine, jacksonville, and everything in between.
then goes into Georgia, South Carolina and turns into Tennessee
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