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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:13 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21445 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:13 pm to
Recon data made it into the 00z models and a massive data collection effort will start tomorrow at 18z

quote:

000 NOUS42 KWNO 040153 ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0146Z MON SEP 04 2017

The 00Z NCEP model production has started and is running on time. In addition to the normal complement of 00Z raobs...3 dropsondes and 3 flight level winds were available courtesy of NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the vicinity of Irma.

Attention WFOs: Special 6-hourly soundings are requested from the following offices starting at 18Z Monday: BIS, UNR, LBF, DDC, AMA, ABR, OAX, TOP, OUN, INL, MPX, SGF, LZK, DVN, ILX, GRB, APX, DTX, ILN, OHX, and SJU.

00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 70414/SYA - No report 70026/BRW - 10148 76405/LAP - 10158 76654/MZL - 10158 78073/NAS - 10156 70350/ADQ - Purged temps 626-507 mb...non-meteorological lapse rates

Handel/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Posted by Lazy But Talented
Member since Aug 2011
15066 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:19 pm to
My flight out of San Juan is Wednesday. Been checking all week for anything out earlier and have been unsuccessful. Wouldn't matter if I can't get off this island.

I have a room at the Marriott in San Juan for tomorrow and Tuesday.
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166611 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:24 pm to
are you not in a mandatory evacuation? If so the ferry tickets should be free, no?
Posted by Lazy But Talented
Member since Aug 2011
15066 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:26 pm to
Price isn't what I'm worried about.

The fact that they only sold them to their local friends is the issue.
Posted by diat150
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2005
47699 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:30 pm to
Sounds like they will make a sweep right at the end and charge tourists more.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43482 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:33 pm to
shite. Sorry LBT. Really hope you make it out of there
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:36 pm to
new GFS run time
Posted by LSU1018
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
7381 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:37 pm to
I would offer a local a good sum of money to get off that island.
Posted by iamAG
Member since Aug 2015
3517 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:38 pm to
Looks not so great for gom
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:41 pm to
trying to learn myself what an "atmospheric sounding" is
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:46 pm to
The sounding measures properties like temp, humidity, wind speed, direction as a function of height. It's why all our NWS stations send up weather balloons, to get these measurements.

They are typically shown as Pressure vs Temperature graphically with pressure set on a logrithmic scale IIRC.
Posted by CyrustheVirus
Member since Jan 2013
2909 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:49 pm to
quote:

Looks not so great for gom


I'm not saying it won't enter the gulf but that slight southern shift isn't what's going to put it there. It's always been due for a strong northern turn no matter how far south it goes.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:50 pm to
quote:

The sounding measures properties like temp, humidity, wind speed, direction as a function of height. It's why all our NWS stations send up weather balloons, to get these measurements.

They are typically shown as Pressure vs Temperature graphically with pressure set on a logrithmic scale IIRC.

figured it was the weather balloon

also... I kinda care but not enough to look it up myself... what weather offices are those being asked to do special 6 hour soundings?
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166611 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:54 pm to
quote:

Sounds like they will make a sweep right at the end and charge tourists more.
exactly.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105177 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 10:54 pm to
Just out of curiosity, what's the difference between the Air Force hurricane hunters and the NOAA hurricane hunters?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21445 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:01 pm to
This is not a good look, southward again this run

Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:03 pm to
well crap and this has the data in it tonight correct?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:03 pm to
That trough isn't digging down as much as I remember on previous runs. I'm not sure where the weakness to turn her hard North is going to come from based on that image.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105177 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:05 pm to
GOM?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21445 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 11:07 pm to
Very close to a Cuban landfall.

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