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Message

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:45 am to
Posted by Spasweezy
Unfortunately, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2014
7251 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:45 am to
I made a triangular math thread for you. Go there.
Posted by theunknownknight
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
60899 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:46 am to
Just due to the geography and road system of Florida - people should have been GTFO'ing starting this last Monday
Posted by TinyTigerPaws
Member since Aug 2004
35039 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:47 am to
But have y'all seen the boobs on the meterologist out of Miami ABC station? Granted, hers are not natural. Don't switch now, she's not on camera.
Posted by Dick Jacket
Member since Nov 2016
1587 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:48 am to
Not when it causes a run on gas and hotels to keep the people who really need to get out from doing so.
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:48 am to
quote:

And?


Off day? More folks? More time to argue and bitch?

Just an observation.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:49 am to
quote:

The cone, to me, never makes sense because the cone itself shifts. It should theoretically just be the path inside the cone.

If the whole cone moves that defeats the purpose of the cone.




Well A) the cone is updated every 3 hours, so it adds 3 hours on the back end of the cone.

B) The cone gets smaller at a particular time interval 95% of the time. The "shifts" usually take people out of the cone.
Posted by Dick Jacket
Member since Nov 2016
1587 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:50 am to
Well it has something to do with a line going right up the Savannah River with a 4/5 on it. That gets people's attention.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Well it has something to do with a line going right up the Savannah River with a 4/5 on it. That gets people's attention.




No I understand that, but there was still time. The mandatory evacs should have probably ended yesterday too, but they still are enforcing them to my knowledge.
Posted by BOSCEAUX
Where the Down Boys go.
Member since Mar 2008
52361 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:53 am to
I got hammered and haven't followed the storm since 5 yesterday. Are we dead yet?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:54 am to
quote:

I got hammered and haven't followed the storm since 5 yesterday. Are we dead yet?




You in Tampa?
Posted by BeepNode
Lafayette
Member since Feb 2014
10005 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:54 am to
It's looking like Tampa is going to get it's first major (Cat 3+) hurricane in almost 100 years.
Posted by Redbone
my castle
Member since Sep 2012
20703 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:55 am to
quote:

Well A) the cone is updated every 3 hours, so it adds 3 hours on the back end of the cone.

B) The cone gets smaller at a particular time interval 95% of the time. The "shifts" usually take people out of the cone.
People are arguing the exactness of the cone for no good reason and with no better idea as to how we can prepare.

According to unkowing it can hit anywhere from Mexico to Maine.

Using the "cone" from 5 days ago has helped me get my friend out of Tampa to come to B.R. instead of both of us going to Montana.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:55 am to
Irma looks a lot better in the last few frames. Hopefully it is a temporary flare up.

Posted by toosleaux
Stuck in Baton Rouge traffic
Member since Dec 2007
9483 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:56 am to
Nobody seems to be saying anything, but I keep hearing the storm is moving straight west as of the last few updates. What are the chances this thing hits somewhere between Louisiana and the Panhandle?
Posted by Dick Jacket
Member since Nov 2016
1587 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:56 am to
They are.

My uneducated solution is to either stop the line at the 3 day mark or make it a wider line that fades to indicate the uncertainty.

There needs to be some level of required probability before putting a line through a city and telling them that they are about to get it.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:57 am to
quote:

Nobody seems to be saying anything, but I keep hearing the storm is moving straight west as of the last few updates. What are the chances this thing hits somewhere between Louisiana and the Panhandle?



Essentially zero chance it gets outside of Florida.

ETA - To add some reasoning here - The NHC gives Buras, LA a 3% chance of seeing sustained winds of 34kts in the next 5 days. 34kt winds extend 170 miles to the west of Irma's center. You do the math.
This post was edited on 9/9/17 at 11:11 am
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:58 am to
Quick reminder to the Florida folks, TWC is talking about surge currently and on top of the new surge potentials you have wave action and high tide (potentially).

Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
13141 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:58 am to
quote:

Nobody seems to be saying anything, but I keep hearing the storm is moving straight west as of the last few updates. What are the chances this thing hits somewhere between Louisiana and the Panhandle


Yeah I'm kind of waiting for this turn that isn't happening yet myself. The cone moves west. Hurricane isn't moving north. Getting a little worried.
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6153 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:00 am to
The storm wasn't predicted to turn till today 3 days ago!!
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:00 am to
That's quite the flare up around the eye. That the warmer water?
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