- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
0
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:00 am to 50_Tiger
What's the predicted total surge for Tampa/St. Pete right now?
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:00 am to TigerNAtux
quote:
That's quite the flare up around the eye. That the warmer water?
90 degree water yes.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:01 am to slackster
quote:
No I understand that, but there was still time. The mandatory evacs should have probably ended yesterday too, but they still are enforcing them to my knowledge.
I've been in Charleston since Wednesday. There were businesses closed and boarding windows on Thursday morning - 4 to 5 days out from a potential landfall. I'm all for early prep, but it was a little premature. This storm has been on everyone's radar for 10+ days now and it's caused some rash decisions to be made.
I like your idea of only releasing model info up to hour 120. Too many people have their hands on this data and don't know how to properly use it.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:01 am to Dick Jacket
quote:
They are.
My uneducated solution is to either stop the line at the 3 day mark or make it a wider line that fades to indicate the uncertainty.
There needs to be some level of required probability before putting a line through a city and telling them that they are about to get it.
NHC takes the human psyche seriously. They spend a decent amount of resources trying to develop warnings/graphics that are more accurate within a given margin of error, but also serious enough for people to take the proper precaution. That's why they no longer give tornado warnings for an entire county, for example. They have to battle the folks who think they're crying wolf against the ones who believe they're not given enough warning.
I don't know the answer. Even if you remove the line from the cone, people will still infer where the center is expected to be.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:01 am to TheOcean
quote:
What's the predicted total surge for Tampa/St. Pete right now?
5 to 8 ft.
Plus waves
Just checked marine data from Tampa and high tide for most areas adds another 2-3 feet
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:02 am to theunknownknight
quote:
theunknownknight
OMG YOU JUST DONT QUIT DO YOU?
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:02 am to 50_Tiger
Nuts. I hope those in zone A left
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:02 am to 50_Tiger
quote:I noticed this while people were arguing "cone".
and on top of the new surge potentials you have wave action and high tide (potentially).
Due to Fla. being nearly totally on the west side of Irma (except panhandle) the east coast will have major problems.
The entire state is unsafe and fricked.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:03 am to TheOcean
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:03 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
They should go watch TWC. Jim C walking around on water and telling us how many Walmarts will get damaged in Miami.
I've watched TWC a lot over the last 3 days and i've come to the conclusion that it's garbage. 90% of the coverage is filler crap like interviewing some county EMS spokesman or a storm surge graphic showing a CGI house washing away. They spend minimal time talking about the real time conditions of the actual hurricane.
ETA: disclaimer of no offense meant to anyone who lost anything in a surge and to the owner of the orange trash can. Also Hermine is not currently making landfal near Tally or Savannah.
This post was edited on 9/9/17 at 11:09 am
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:03 am to TheOcean
quote:
Nuts. I hope those in zone A left
A will be underwater.
You said you were in C right?
You should be okay.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:04 am to ShamelessPel
quote:
. The cone moves west. Hurricane isn't moving north.
The NHC projected the turn to occur today (from what others have posted).
A Louisiana landfall would be a huge forecasting fail. That said, others here have posted that a Louisiana landfall will not occur.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:04 am to slackster
quote:
I don't know the answer. Even if you remove the line from the cone, people will still infer where the center is expected to be.
I hear ya man that's a tight rope to walk for sure... I bet sometimes they just feel like giving the citizens all the maps and radars they have and say "figure this shite out for yourself" Can't make everyone happy lol
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:05 am to slackster
In this specific case, not having the line would have helped a ton. No amateurs can predict the turn so they can't line up the hits after the turn. That line was up the east coast the other day and was starting a shite storm here on Thursday.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:05 am to lsufishnhunt
quote:Is that too late for those in the sights to board up and GTFO?
I like your idea of only releasing model info up to hour 120.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:05 am to theunknownknight
Go frick yourself buddy. 
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:06 am to theunknownknight
quote:
People trust you too much on here for you to be that dogmatic.
Do I think it will hit Florida? Yep.
But if I were you I wouldn't state emphatically "zero" chance it won't. People might actually drop their guards.
There is essentially a zero percent chance it will hit anywhere outside of Florida at this point. The NHC gives Buras, LA a 3% chance of seeing sustained winds of 34kts in the next 5 days.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:06 am to slackster
11 AM Adv
Nothing has changed.
Cat 3
125 Mph
941 mb
W @ 9
Nothing has changed.
Cat 3
125 Mph
941 mb
W @ 9
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:07 am to Mr. Hangover
quote:
I bet sometimes they just feel like giving the citizens all the maps and radars they have and say "figure this shite out for yourself"
I bet they do.
This post was edited on 9/9/17 at 11:09 am
Page 556 of 711
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News