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Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:39 am to TheOcean
quote:
We're about 35 feet up from what I looked at (if I read the map properly). Second safest area to be in the county
Okay bud be safe!
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:39 am to dbeck
In regards to the northern shift, can anyone tell us when the models have estimated it to happen? Approximate time is what I'm asking.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:39 am to Dick Jacket
Agreed 100%
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:39 am to 50_Tiger
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:39 am to Ed Osteen
The models are the best we have and the data is limited and fluid. I'll trust them and the people trained to analyze them over some random "I'm calling it. Book it" turd post.
That being said, saying it stayed in the cone doesn't really mean it was an accurate forecast path. It could do a 180 within the cone and head south, then the next cone is south of it and so on. It's always going to be in the cone. The cone isn't a path. The cone is dictated by the path. "They were wrong, the path moved," and "They were right, it never left the cone," are both accurate statements.
It's an argument that could go on forever. And judging from this thread, it will. Book it.
That being said, saying it stayed in the cone doesn't really mean it was an accurate forecast path. It could do a 180 within the cone and head south, then the next cone is south of it and so on. It's always going to be in the cone. The cone isn't a path. The cone is dictated by the path. "They were wrong, the path moved," and "They were right, it never left the cone," are both accurate statements.
It's an argument that could go on forever. And judging from this thread, it will. Book it.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:40 am to Festus
Festus next 6-10 hours
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:40 am to dbeck
quote:
Wrong. The end of the cone could be due west from Irma instead of north (in Florida). But it's not. It is predicting a 90 degree turn and they have been predicting this turn for a week now.
I didn't mean "any direction" from the hurricane's starting point.
I was referring to the largest area of the cone as the ending/new starting point
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:40 am to BeeFense5
quote:We don't need your "mad" nor the monday morning quarterbacking.
people are mad about pointing out a shifting storm track
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:40 am to jlntiger
quote:
Duke , Slackster . If it hugs the west coast of Florida (say 20-30 miles offshore ) can it continue to strengthen as it goes up the coast ?
It won't help, but the NHC is forecasting some pretty significant shear as it moves into the central part of the peninsula. That should inhibit anything notable.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:41 am to jlntiger
The water is plenty warm to support strengthening but there should be a little shear coming across to at least limit the upside.
The NHC has it getting back to 140 before a landfall. You should expect it to strengthen and maybe more than just back to 140.
The NHC has it getting back to 140 before a landfall. You should expect it to strengthen and maybe more than just back to 140.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:42 am to Wildcat In Germany
quote:
Well, this thread has gone to shite.
It's Saturday.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:42 am to TheOcean
Ocean you in St. Pete?
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:42 am to slackster
The cone, to me, never makes sense because the cone itself shifts. It should theoretically just be the path inside the cone.
If the whole cone moves that defeats the purpose of the cone.
If the whole cone moves that defeats the purpose of the cone.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:42 am to MarcusQuinn
Fact: don't care, lets move on
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:43 am to Dick Jacket
quote:Yeah, but it isn't an exact science yet.
I do think that local and state authorities fricked up their evacuations and planning based upon how the NHC presents its forecast.
They can't take chances.
Better to over react.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:43 am to TigerNAtux
quote:
It's Saturday
And?
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:44 am to PRK
Ye man
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:44 am to Dick Jacket
GFS still blowing her back up to Cat 5 after she leaves Cuban coast. And it has her at 947 millibars 3 hours from now which is about right but even a little high.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 10:44 am to Dick Jacket
quote:
I do think that local and state authorities fricked up their evacuations and planning based upon how the NHC presents its forecast.
Yeah I'm not sure why coastal Georgia and SC were so quick to pull the trigger. People in southern Florida needed to get out early, but those states had another 24-36 hours to wait.
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