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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/3/17 at 3:54 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
So is there little to no chance of this coming through Louisiana? Judging by the models this is what I am getting, but no idea if I'm right
not at all... in fact the continuing trends of these models should worry GOM states more than previously
no one along the north Atlantic hurricane zone (inc. GOM states) is out of play right now
Posted on 9/3/17 at 3:54 pm to lsuman25
Not sure if already posted, but the 18z intensity forecasts:
Posted on 9/3/17 at 3:55 pm to rt3
So sitting here in North Carolina on the coast. On a scale of 1-10, what should my anal pucker factor be at right now?
Posted on 9/3/17 at 3:56 pm to Centinel
quote:
Ok that's manageable.
if models were to stop moving sometime tonight... I'd up it to a 4 or 4.5 by tomorrow morning
Posted on 9/3/17 at 3:56 pm to cajunangelle
quote:
So sitting here in North Carolina on the coast. On a scale of 1-10, what should my anal pucker factor be at right now?
same
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:03 pm to rt3
we have an Air Fore base with Hurricane Hunters stationed on it in Puerto Rico or something?
they're getting to the storm quicker than I thought they would
they're getting to the storm quicker than I thought they would
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:06 pm to slackster
Those sub 900 pressures as it approaches the Carolinas from some models are completely unrealistic. Storms always weaken slightly after making that turn up the east coast because the factors steering them inhibit development.
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:07 pm to rt3
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:20 pm to cajunangelle
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:24 pm to rds dc
the jet stream in USA
This post was edited on 9/3/17 at 4:27 pm
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:35 pm to rds dc
Florida's got the magic force field working for it again apparently. 
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:37 pm to slackster
Seems like the intensity forecasts may be backing down some?
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:39 pm to rt3
quote:. What about central Florida?
So sitting here in South Carolina. On a scale of 1-10, what should my anal pucker factor be at right now?
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:41 pm to cajunangelle
That's good for keeping it out of the gulf, right? Ideal even? Assuming that Ridge is there when it's predicted to be.
This post was edited on 9/3/17 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:49 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
That's good for keeping it out of the gulf, right? Ideal even? Assuming that Ridge is there when it's predicted to be.
If the trough dips that low, in that spot, yes, it will be good for the GOM.
This post was edited on 9/3/17 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:54 pm to rt3
Probably just part of the eyewall replacement but the western eyewall was reported open.
000
URNT12 KWBC 032144
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 03/21:26:12Z
B. 17 deg 23 min N
049 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2764 m
D. 79 kt
E. 253 deg 11 nm
F. 332 deg 87 kt
G. 253 deg 11 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 11 C / 3044 m
J. 18 C / 3001 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0111A IRMA OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT 033 / 17 NM 21:30:11Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 11 KTS
000
URNT12 KWBC 032144
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 03/21:26:12Z
B. 17 deg 23 min N
049 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2764 m
D. 79 kt
E. 253 deg 11 nm
F. 332 deg 87 kt
G. 253 deg 11 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 11 C / 3044 m
J. 18 C / 3001 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0111A IRMA OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT 033 / 17 NM 21:30:11Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 11 KTS
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:57 pm to slackster
Irma is still tracking towards northern Virginia, correct?
Posted on 9/3/17 at 4:58 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
000
URNT12 KWBC 032144
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 03/21:26:12Z
B. 17 deg 23 min N
049 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2764 m
D. 79 kt
E. 253 deg 11 nm
F. 332 deg 87 kt
G. 253 deg 11 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 11 C / 3044 m
J. 18 C / 3001 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0111A IRMA OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT 033 / 17 NM 21:30:11Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 11 KTS
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