re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

There are fatalities on Jost. We don't know who or how many yet. Foxy and his family are safe.

A friend chose to ride out the storm on top of Gift Hill on St. John and hasn't been heard from. I don't know why he chose that location. Steve of Rockhoppin is reported to be safe but no solid confirmation.

On St John Caneel Bay is destroyed. St. John water and ice was destroyed so there is no ice for people and fresh water is a huge issue.

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The westward shift, as well as the predicated westward turn once it reaches 32N are concerning to say the least. They are signs of the Bermuda/Atlantic ridge building back to the west and the trough pulling out too fast to "catch" Irma and take her out to sea. Reminds me of the weather map and "cone" on 8/25/05.

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Umm, no, none of that is true.

The northward turn will happen, and the turn to the NW once it nears the panhandle is caused by the same feature that turns it northward. You basically cannot have one without the other.

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Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of
Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12
kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center.

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Also, we've had discussions about Katrina basically twice per day since this thread started. Every single time we have it, people misremember the event. The 5-day cone on 8/25/2005 had Buras and lower Mississippi in the cone. The cone exist to illustrate the uncertainty, and the NHC was explicitly stating that SE LA was a distinct possibility for what was tropical storm Katrina at the time.

Lastly, the NHC has improved their forecasting errors by 40% since 2005. If you're in SE LA, your only concern for Irma should be for our neighbors to the east.

84H

GFS has it as a CAT3/4 on top of Disney.

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Have to question if there will be any fuel for evacuations much longer.

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The governor is having troopers escort fuel trucks to the stations.

Once again, for those that need gas buddy.

LINK

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You should probably also write your name and SSN on your arm...

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He probably already has it tattooed on his arm

well since he lives in key west, he probably has his number tattooed on his arse.

Why do you act like a douche in most of the threads you post in?

Last night a County official said only about maybe half, if that, had left the Keys

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GFS has it as a CAT3/4 on top of Disney. This post was edited on 9/8 at 10:58 am

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And they'll be ready to roll within a week. The mouse doesn't frick around.