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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:25 pm to HubbaBubba
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:25 pm to HubbaBubba
quote:
Interesting that GFS made such a HUGE swing to the west and north when the Euro went south and west. Those were coming together but now it just makes it an even bigger guessing game.
Yea considering today's Euro moved slightly south and had it going on the edge of GOM then turning north to Florida west coast, this is a large amount of disagreement.
Euro was way more accurate with Harvey. This time around will be interesting
1
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:26 pm to HogX
sadly this is the downfall of models, they are great in that 24hr-72hr time frame, but we're still talking 4-5 days out before the storm gets to florida, we will most likely known more wendesday/thursday imo
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:32 pm to PhillipJFry
I live here in middle ga and I believe I just bought the last generator in a tri county radius. I wanted to be prepared in case of a power outage and it appears I was not the only person with that plan.
Also stay in Warner Robins or Perry do not I repeat do not stay in Macon.
Also stay in Warner Robins or Perry do not I repeat do not stay in Macon.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 5:34 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:33 pm to LSU5508
Best I understand it:
Both are global weather models, i.e. they both model the entire globe and attempt to quantify how much a fly farting in Tokyo impacts a hurricane track in the Atlantic.
GFS takes a few less things into consideration, but it runs more often (every 6 hours) and runs longer (out to hour 384).
The Euro takes more into account, and thus runs slower (every 12 hours out to hour 240). Assuming the extra information is accurate, it may lead the Euro to be more accurate in the long run.
However, if something significant has changed, the GFS running every 6 hours should in theory be the first to catch it.
Video
Both are global weather models, i.e. they both model the entire globe and attempt to quantify how much a fly farting in Tokyo impacts a hurricane track in the Atlantic.
GFS takes a few less things into consideration, but it runs more often (every 6 hours) and runs longer (out to hour 384).
The Euro takes more into account, and thus runs slower (every 12 hours out to hour 240). Assuming the extra information is accurate, it may lead the Euro to be more accurate in the long run.
However, if something significant has changed, the GFS running every 6 hours should in theory be the first to catch it.
Video
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:35 pm to BRIllini07
Irma make a prediction right meow. Mobile, AL will be in the path of totality.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:36 pm to BRIllini07
All of this is good for Florida but what about the BVI and USVI? I have a ton of friends down there.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:38 pm to BRIllini07
GFS says it is turning before Florida. Euro is putting it into the gulf. We are about to find out which one got a STEM and which one got a Liberal Arts degree.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:38 pm to rds dc
Listen... That is the sound of NHC forecasters throwing computers running the GFS out the window 
12z Euro 933 Ft. Myers, FL vs. 18z GFS sub 900 just south of Wilmington, NC.
12z Euro 933 Ft. Myers, FL vs. 18z GFS sub 900 just south of Wilmington, NC.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:39 pm to Hangit
Either way, if I'm in Florida, I'm gone NOW.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:39 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
All of this is good for Florida but what about the BVI and USVI?
Sorry baw.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:39 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
but what about the BVI and USVI?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:42 pm to Funky Tide 8
I'm hoping the models are wrong. looks like I might lose vacation property in st kitts and Naples. worst week ever
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:42 pm to rds dc
quote:
Listen... That is the sound of NHC forecasters throwing computers running the GFS out the window
Got 'em tuned in though.Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:44 pm to rocket31
quote:
a message from supernovasky (who used to post here before oweo and cajunangelle ran him off)
No offense but how in the frick does one let oweo run them off?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:44 pm to rds dc
I picture nhc offices looking a lot like that episode of spongebob where his brain is going haywire and all the other spongebobs are freaking the frick out.
ETA: I feel sorry for the poor frick that has to write the next forecast advisory
ETA: I feel sorry for the poor frick that has to write the next forecast advisory
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 5:45 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:45 pm to RatLTrap
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:45 pm to lsu480
quote:
No offense but how in the frick does one let oweo run them off?
I see what you did there.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:47 pm to lsutiger2010
quote:
Oh no. We're all so sad for you.
its ok. good thing I sent my yacht back to Ft Lauderdale at the end of the season
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:48 pm to TigerstuckinMS
Does anyone actually even know where this hurricane is heading?
Everyones projections are so all over
Everyones projections are so all over
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