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Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:00 am to rds dc
quote:
The hype with Florence will be unbearable, if the models start seriously showing an East Coast threa
Didn’t the latest model have it as a 920mb storm approaching DC/NYC
Could you imagine a Katrina hitting NYC on that island?
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:01 am to deltaland
They shouldn't have built NYC on an island knowing this could probably happen /sarcasm
Bet no dumbass politicians will say that shite unlike what they did with NOLA.
Bet no dumbass politicians will say that shite unlike what they did with NOLA.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:03 am to Boudreaux35
quote:
I'm not pissed off, I just think that officials and weather "experts" blowing every storm that comes anywhere near out of proportion are a big part of the reason so many people don't react correctly when there is a REAL threat. People get complacent. How long has it been since these people read "The Boy Who Cried Wolf?" The story has a real meaning to it.
Lotta truth to that, but if you listen to the NWS and the NWS only, you'll be fine. The local mets and TWC are more worried about ratings.
ETA - and Tigerdroppings of course. We're as solid a source as you'll find.
This post was edited on 9/5/18 at 8:05 am
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:06 am to jdd48
quote:
Jesus man. That would likely put it in Cat4/5 territory.
Umm an 894 mb storm would be a strong Cat 5. Like 200mph winds
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:07 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
GFS also has a depression/TS in southern gulf next weekend heading to South Texas.
The overall pattern is supportive of this type of scenario. Another thing to watch over the next week to 10 days.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:12 am to rds dc
quote:
Euro EPS Florence
That one line going across Florida and straight into Nola
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:13 am to Boudreaux35
quote:
I just think that officials and weather "experts" blowing every storm that comes anywhere near out of proportion are a big part of the reason so many people don't react correctly when there is a REAL threat. People get complacent. How long has it been since these people read "The Boy Who Cried Wolf?" The story has a real meaning to it.
Part of the reaction today is how far east Gordon slipped relative to expectation. At 4 pm the Hurricane Center had a landfall a touch west of Biloxi. It was coming in on the AL/MS state line at 10 pm. That's a huge miss based on the NHC's track record that close.
Monday night into Tuesday still had quite a few computer models putting a hurricane into St. Tammany and almost all were bringing Gordon close enough (and many as a hurricane) to impact our far east parishes in some way.
I always here the Katrina story when storms are expected to go east. "Well Katrina was suppose to hit Florida and then it suddenly changed." The scar of that memory still impacts gov officials decision making on storms. I just think back to our Irma thread here last year and the torrent of questions about how everything could be wrong and it was going to come this way because Katrina.
Anything west of Orleans closing or south of Orleans was overkill, yes but I'm no where close to thinking Louisiana won't take the next threat seriously.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:16 am to Duke
Assumption Parish cancelled school yesterday.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:18 am to The Boat
This was the nicest two days of weather we’ve had in NOLA in a month. ThanksGordon
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:22 am to Duke
quote:
At 4 pm the Hurricane Center had a landfall a touch west of Biloxi.
That was strange. We could all see the radar showing it heading towards the MS/AL border.
quote:
Anything west of Orleans closing or south of Orleans was overkill,
Yeah I think we knew yesterday morning anything west of St Tammany really had no shot of seeing any impacts.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:22 am to BigPerm30
Any word on how Perdido/Orange Beach came out?
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:24 am to rds dc
So what are the chances these new storms make their way to Gulf? I have a lot of Armageddon supplies I didn't use for Gordon.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:30 am to LSUJuice
quote:
That was strange. We could all see the radar showing it heading towards the MS/AL border.
It was strange. It was a ways from the radar, so there were questions of where the low level center really was I guess. It was probably too far west, which I think recon confirmed later in the evening IIRC. I don't want to hate on the NHC, because those guys have been excellent on track for years now and a 30-40 mile miss is "huge" now, but had they gone a bit more east at 4, some of the schools would have probably reevaluated.
quote:
Yeah I think we knew yesterday morning anything west of St Tammany really had no shot of seeing any impacts.
We did for the most part. Orleans given the geography and population should have a quick trigger and play things conservative. Otherwise, a parish like Assumption closing was fricking ridiculous. It looked worse for BR yesterday and we had a forecasted peak gust of 15 mph and like a half inch of rain.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:31 am to Boudreaux35
quote:
How long has it been since these people read "The Boy Who Cried Wolf?" The story has a real meaning to it.
I was thinking the same thing yesterday. They need to stop that immediately. It is setting up people for disaster.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:35 am to ChenierauTigre
Slackster, come on down. You're the winner of the max wind game!
70 mph gust on Dauphin Island.
We got a 72 mph offical on the east side of Dauphin Island.
70 mph gust on Dauphin Island.
We got a 72 mph offical on the east side of Dauphin Island.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:36 am to deltaland
Florence looks like an east coast threat. It could get ugly next week 
This post was edited on 9/5/18 at 8:39 am
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:44 am to Duke
quote:
Part of the reaction today is how far east Gordon slipped relative to expectation. At 4 pm the Hurricane Center had a landfall a touch west of Biloxi. It was coming in on the AL/MS state line at 10 pm. That's a huge miss based on the NHC's track record that close.
Is it though? At a northwest heading with 6 hours and 90 miles to go until landfall, missing the center by 30 miles will cause an exaggerated miss on the coastline.
ETA - I mean, the missed it, but it was still within the come even at that distance.
This post was edited on 9/5/18 at 8:48 am
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:46 am to Duke
quote:
Slackster, come on down. You're the winner of the max wind game!
Posted on 9/5/18 at 8:47 am to slackster
Hey RDC, Duke and Slackster, I'm planning to wake up in the middle of the night to order the new iPhone on September 14, is that going to be disrupted by a catastrophic Florence making landfall on Georgia?
thanks in advance
thanks in advance
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