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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:20 pm to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147074 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:20 pm to
quote:

There was a 105 kt during the first pass.

105 kt = 120 mph
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:22 pm to
Thanks. Been at work all day. Trying to get caught up on all things “hurricane”.

I expected the winds to be higher by this point. Hopefully this is all she’s got.

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102613 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

Has the US catfish industry rebounded some as of late? In the 1990s if you were in Humphreys County, you couldn’t look in any direction and not see ponds. Most were converted back to row crop or turned into CRP.


Acreage increased by 2% last year and 6% this year. It’s doing better though you couldn’t tell driving down the highway cause most of the farms are off the main highways now. Country Select Catfish, the processor in Isola, just build 2,000 acres of new ponds in Humphreys. Freshwater Farms the processor in Belzoni added another 200 acres to their current 2,000 acres they’ve been operating. I think overall acreage this year increased by about 4,000 acres
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:24 pm to
Cat 3 winds at least.

The microwave passes earlier this evening had the NW side looking healthier, so this coming swing through that quad might yield the most expected results.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102613 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:25 pm to
Ahh never mind I missed that one
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16919 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

If you aren’t right on the coast the wind strength in most storms isn’t the main issue.
. Wind can be a huge issue inland depending on the storms intensity and forward speed. Here in Orlando we’ve been hit by 5 hurricanes since I’ve lived here. All of our issues during and after those storms were 100% related to wind damage. Rain doesn’t knock down trees, take down roofs and power lines. We have never had any significant flooding during any of those events and Orlando is 50 miles inland. I’m not downplaying the effect of flooding in flood prone areas because it goes without saying that is the number one killer- but wind can certainly be a big issue inland.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14278 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:31 pm to
Thank goodness this beast is nowhere near land.

Supertyphoon Mangkhut in W Pacific

Posted by weagle99
Member since Nov 2011
35893 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:32 pm to
Da fuq

It’s headed to Toledo?

This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 9:34 pm
Posted by jefffan
Florence- Sumter- Columbia, SC
Member since Sep 2013
4971 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:34 pm to
Columbia
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:34 pm to
Nobody knows what it is going to do after it arrives at the coast.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:35 pm to
Classic WPac typhoon.

Glad the Atlantic doesn't spin those up with any frequency.
Posted by AubieALUMdvm
Member since Oct 2011
11713 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:35 pm to
Either that or it will tour the finger lakes wine country of upstate NY
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:39 pm to
quote:

Supertyphoon Mangkhut in W Pacific


WPac is like a wet dream for tropical systems. Fortunately most don't impact land at peak strength. The list of storms with pressures under 900mb in the Atlantic ends with 6 storms. The WPac has 8 storms with pressures 900mb or below since 2010.
Posted by DeltaDoc
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
16751 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:41 pm to
That’s good to hear. Wish Trump would ban Asian imports.
Posted by dawgfan24348
Member since Oct 2011
51733 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:43 pm to
I mean one has it stalling right before it hits the Carolinas then saying frick it and heading to Savannah instead so we might need to wait on those longer predictions
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

I mean one has it stalling right before it hits the Carolinas then saying frick it and heading to Savannah instead so we might need to wait on those longer predictions



Predicting exactly what happens when a storm slows to 4-5kts is inherently difficult, fwiw.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21505 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:52 pm to
00z 3k NAM (shouldn't be used for the tropics)

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:53 pm to
quote:

00z 3k NAM (shouldn't be used for the tropics)



But it makes for a terrifying image nonetheless.
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
46364 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:54 pm to
What’s a good time to check in for next forecast?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 9:57 pm to
Right now.

New forecast tracks and discussions roll out at 4 am, 10 am, 4 pm, 10 pm central.

NHC keeps her at 140 mph at 946 mb. Track shifted a bit left (south).
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