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Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:15 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:15 pm to rds dc
quote:
Pressure up a bit as another ERC appears to be under way
There doesn't appear to be a secondary eyewall evident in the wind readings, but I know the recon planes have radar so they may see one on their system.
1
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:16 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
Conclusion: models don’t ever know shite 4-5 days out
quote:
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast should continue to steer Florence on a west-northwestward to northwestward heading until the hurricane nears the coast. The steering pattern from 72 hours and beyond becomes more complicated and uncertain. The latest GFS model run shows a mid-level ridge building over the east-central United States in 3-4 days. This temporarily blocks the forward progress of the hurricane and forces a southwesterly turn in the model run. Later in the period, the ridge rebuilds to the north of Florence allowing the system to move inland. The official track forecast is somewhat to the left of the previous NHC track, but to the right of the latest consensus predictions. It should be noted that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast.
The NHC is throwing their hands up too.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:17 pm to slackster
I'd say the latest NHC track just raised the APFR for Columbia to 9.5
The models have it going further and further southwestward since this morning once it hits Wilmington
The models have it going further and further southwestward since this morning once it hits Wilmington
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:18 pm to rds dc
This is a weird hurricane, a weird setup, etc.
I’m glad I’m not having to make decisions about leaving, because it isn’t clear what this thing wants to do.
I’m glad I’m not having to make decisions about leaving, because it isn’t clear what this thing wants to do.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 10:20 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:19 pm to slackster
That’s alarming, but at least they admit it.
Hope this isn’t another Harvey.
Hope this isn’t another Harvey.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:22 pm to TigerNAtux
Tropical Storm Watch for Florence, SC from Thurs morning to Sat.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:24 pm to jefffan
Weather Channel just now breaking that the storm could move south after approaching the coast.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:27 pm to Dlab2013
quote:
but as an adjuster,
You're gonna be busy starting next week.
Sad, though.
I hope you aren't one of those that will deny claims because of technicalities.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:29 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:33 pm to TigerBait1971
This is shaping up to be a doozy for Jeff and the chasers. I hope he doesn’t lose cell coverage
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:35 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
because of technicalities.
Such as?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:38 pm to slackster
quote:
It should be noted that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast.
NHC
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 10:38 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:42 pm to LaBR4
The Weather Channel is doing a nice job filling time between advisories - specifically, Jacqui
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 10:46 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:42 pm to LaBR4
946 mb in most recent eye drop at surface
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:43 pm to rds dc
quote:
The models had trended towards killing off Isaac in the Caribbean but now the ensembles are starting to trend back towards Isaac making the trek across and then turning north. This will be an interesting to trend to watch over the next couple of days.
Kind of reminds me of Ivan's track.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:45 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
Kind of reminds me of Ivan's track.
It can remind you of dozens of tracks.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:54 pm to The Boat
Too early for panic. Just keep your eyes on the reports and be ready for anything.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:55 pm to slackster
quote:
It should be noted that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:58 pm to rt3
Surface 107 kt.
FL 130 kt.
NE quad.
Pressure like 943, but plane isn't transmitting pressures. Educated guess by the pro posting recon stuff on 2k.
FL 130 kt.
NE quad.
Pressure like 943, but plane isn't transmitting pressures. Educated guess by the pro posting recon stuff on 2k.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 11:00 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:00 pm to Tigerbait357
First time post. You Louisiana folk are way more experienced with hurricanes. I'm from the central part of SC, Go Gamecocks, what kind of threat does this pose for us? The last several replies have mentioned it doesn't bode well for us.
We had Hurricane Matthew in 2015 and it washed out dozens of roads. I was born in 89 prior to Hugo, I was a newborn but my parents mentioned how terrible it was. I'm curious where Florence may stack up.
I should mention I respect LSU and have family in Baton Rouge, Geaux Tigers also.
Thanks
We had Hurricane Matthew in 2015 and it washed out dozens of roads. I was born in 89 prior to Hugo, I was a newborn but my parents mentioned how terrible it was. I'm curious where Florence may stack up.
I should mention I respect LSU and have family in Baton Rouge, Geaux Tigers also.
Thanks
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 11:05 pm
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