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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:02 pm to
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177253 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:02 pm to
Evacuating from the triangle would be like evacuating from McComb, MS. Whoever said that about Charlotte needs to be slapped.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87979 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:02 pm to
Tell her to define "stronger"
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
40313 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

What's with Gulf disturbance's chances of development slowly inching up?? Don't be a jerk, Gulf disturbance! There's enough on our plate

It’s looking like it’s getting its shite together unfortunately
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
41008 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

Tell her to define "stronger"


They have been learning about properties of matter, so mass, height, width, color, hardness, etc.
Posted by gmrkr5
NC
Member since Jul 2009
15143 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

Evacuating from the triangle would be like evacuating from McComb, MS. Whoever said that about Charlotte needs to be slapped.


only reason to roll out from here would be if you were in the middle of a known flood zone and even then I would just try to find somewhere else to go in the area
Posted by Kingpenm3
Xanadu
Member since Aug 2011
9915 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:10 pm to
Forgive me... but the rain today on the Texas and Louisiana coast is from 95L? Or from another system? TIA.

Posted by When in Rome
Telegraph Road
Member since Jan 2011
36223 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:11 pm to
Is it pretty much guaranteed at this point that 95L is going to drench south LA this weekend, or is there some hope left that it will stay south and west enough to prevent that from happening?
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18049 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:12 pm to
From another system
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
77886 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:13 pm to
Savannah and Charleston fricked if that happens.
Posted by Bruco
Charlotte, NC
Member since Aug 2016
3025 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:13 pm to
Evacuate from Charlotte? Lol.

Yeah no, no one is doing that.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21504 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:17 pm to
quote:


Forgive me... but the rain today on the Texas and Louisiana coast is from 95L? Or from another system? TIA.


The rain today is unrelated. However, the recent rains across Texas certainly raise some concerns with 95L moving in.
Posted by bigberg2000
houston, from chalmette
Member since Sep 2005
70738 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:18 pm to
Yeah man. There is already flooding to the south of Houston and the whole area is saturated.
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

one would hope that studies were done on what happened in fukushima and safeguards were put in place to make sure it doesnt happen anywhere ever again. if not, heads should roll.

Won't do any good. The radiation's just going to make another one grow back.
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

He didn't, making the forecast a lot more challenging.

So. THAT'S why the models are all over the place, huh?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21504 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:28 pm to
12z Euro rainfall totals

Now to get that stall to shift another 25 to 50 miles SE.

ETA: to add the right freaking model output

This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 2:54 pm
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4668 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:28 pm to


Storm looks like it will make landfall somewhere between Texas/Mexico border and Florida panhandle...these models really help narrow it down
Posted by Flanders
Member since May 2008
9950 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

what is cola?
I'm glad somebody finally asked. I couldn't get past Pensacola but that never made sense!
Posted by TigerDude80
METRY
Member since Nov 2007
1943 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

Storm looks like it will make landfall somewhere between Texas/Mexico border and Florida panhandle...these models really help narrow it down




Throw the XTRP and CLP5 models out they mean nothing:

XTRP, which stands for eXTRaPolated, is an extrapolation of a tropical cyclone's future track if a system were to continue its current motion and speed at a constant rate. While it is not technically a computer model, the XTRP line is often incorporated into tropical computer model graphics to be used as a comparison to other computer models

CLP5 (the CLImatology and PERsistence model) and the XTRP (Extrapolated), seem to always get found on model plots, but neither contains any useful information about the forecast. The CLP5 uses past weather situations, or analogs, to diagnose what similar storms have done in the past.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 2:35 pm
Posted by jefffan
Florence- Sumter- Columbia, SC
Member since Sep 2013
4971 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:33 pm to
Sorry been on my phone and cola is just easier to type
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30509 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

I'm glad somebody finally asked. I couldn't get past Pensacola but that never made sense!


was wondering the same thing, my guess was Columbia
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 2:35 pm
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