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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:41 pm to
Posted by HoopyD
Member since Nov 2004
3460 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:41 pm to
What's with Gulf disturbance's chances of development slowly inching up?? Don't be a jerk, Gulf disturbance! There's enough on our plate
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

I know I always heard the "worst of it" is in the NorthWest Quadrant....well with it spinning and moving south, it looks like the worst of it would be north/northeast quadrants


NE is the "bad side" but that depends on relative motion. Most of our storms approach going north. Going SW, I suppose the west side would be worse as the forward motion has an additive effect on the winds going in the same direction. So NW side would be going SW.

To be clear, this scenario is kind of crazy. It's one model run. So I'd advise not getting too hung up on it.
Posted by Rox
Member since Oct 2010
33333 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:42 pm to
Okay. Thanks for explaining. Just messing with my head looking at it!
Posted by H. E. Pennypacker
Louisiana IceGators Fan
Member since Mar 2013
923 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:43 pm to
what is cola?
Posted by jackmanusc
Columbia, SC
Member since Apr 2012
3948 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:43 pm to
Columbia
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53879 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:44 pm to
Columbia, SC
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177253 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:44 pm to
Florence looks like one healthy bitch on the infrared. The winds are gonna pick back up soon.
Posted by Bluefin
The Banana Stand
Member since Apr 2011
13489 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:44 pm to
quote:






I might be fricked no matter where I go.
Posted by H. E. Pennypacker
Louisiana IceGators Fan
Member since Mar 2013
923 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

Columbia


oh, ok, why?
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:46 pm to
Wtf? She’s coming for TWC.
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3484 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

Actual HH Pilot who went into storm discussion

Gotta love Mayor Joe Riley's classic Charleston accent at the 4:55 mark
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
108298 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:47 pm to
Last I saw was 70% chance on the gulf disturbance.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178840 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:48 pm to
we're going to have a much more precise 5 day forecast in 36 hours.
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
108298 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:50 pm to
Chances are it develops to a top storm level. No matter what it is going to soak the TX gulf coast for several Days beginning Fri.
Posted by OldCityGator
St. Augustine, FL
Member since Jan 2008
1018 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:50 pm to
The frick is this storm doing?

Weirdness.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21504 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:52 pm to
quote:


Assuming it doesn't find a path inland eventually.



This run eventually gets it inland but a stall near the coast and then drifting is a better bad scenario vs driving well inland and then stalling/drifting. Storm will weaken considerably before moving inland and a large portion of the extreme rain totals will probably be offshore.

I mentioned a ways back in this thread that OTS appeared to be off the table but that there were still smaller scale features that could possibly still pull an escape hatch. A system stalling under a block is always tricky for the models, esp with smaller scale features rotating over and under the block. Now add in a potentially stronger 95L and track uncertainty in the landfall and after timeframe gets really tricky.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
41008 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

We drove from Durham to Jackson today. Empty roads. Nobody I know from the triangle is leaving. Better safe than sorry!


Lots of friends/associates in the Triangle. None of them are leaving. I think they will all be safe but 3-5 days without power, a/c, etc would seem to be pretty miserable to me, especially if you can't leave due to heavy rain.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177253 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

Nobody I know from the triangle is leaving. Better safe than sorry!

There’s no reason to leave that far inland unless you know you’re going to flood from heavy rain.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87979 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:00 pm to
I have a friend on FB who is advocating that people from Charlotte should evacuate... while at the same time, my pal from Wilmington is going to Charlotte.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 2:01 pm
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
41008 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:01 pm to
Slightly off topic but maybe everyone can use a breather...

My daughter, 2nd grade, asked me this morning at breakfast, "What is stronger, cold water or hot water?"

My immediate reaction was, "water is the same strength no matter the temperature, provided it is still in liquid form".

After she got on the bus and left, I started thinking, "you know, they say warmer water fuels hurricane strength".

Do I have a budding weatherwoman/scientist on my hands?
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