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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:41 pm to TigerBait1971
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:41 pm to TigerBait1971
What's with Gulf disturbance's chances of development slowly inching up?? Don't be a jerk, Gulf disturbance! There's enough on our plate
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:41 pm to Rox
quote:
I know I always heard the "worst of it" is in the NorthWest Quadrant....well with it spinning and moving south, it looks like the worst of it would be north/northeast quadrants
NE is the "bad side" but that depends on relative motion. Most of our storms approach going north. Going SW, I suppose the west side would be worse as the forward motion has an additive effect on the winds going in the same direction. So NW side would be going SW.
To be clear, this scenario is kind of crazy. It's one model run. So I'd advise not getting too hung up on it.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:42 pm to Duke
Okay. Thanks for explaining. Just messing with my head looking at it!
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:44 pm to H. E. Pennypacker
Florence looks like one healthy bitch on the infrared. The winds are gonna pick back up soon.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:44 pm to Rox
quote:
I might be fricked no matter where I go.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:45 pm to jackmanusc
quote:
Columbia
oh, ok, why?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:46 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Actual HH Pilot who went into storm discussion
Gotta love Mayor Joe Riley's classic Charleston accent at the 4:55 mark
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:47 pm to HoopyD
Last I saw was 70% chance on the gulf disturbance.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:48 pm to Tiger Ryno
we're going to have a much more precise 5 day forecast in 36 hours.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:50 pm to Chad504boy
Chances are it develops to a top storm level. No matter what it is going to soak the TX gulf coast for several Days beginning Fri.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:50 pm to Rox
The frick is this storm doing?
Weirdness.
Weirdness.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:52 pm to Duke
quote:
Assuming it doesn't find a path inland eventually.
This run eventually gets it inland but a stall near the coast and then drifting is a better bad scenario vs driving well inland and then stalling/drifting. Storm will weaken considerably before moving inland and a large portion of the extreme rain totals will probably be offshore.
I mentioned a ways back in this thread that OTS appeared to be off the table but that there were still smaller scale features that could possibly still pull an escape hatch. A system stalling under a block is always tricky for the models, esp with smaller scale features rotating over and under the block. Now add in a potentially stronger 95L and track uncertainty in the landfall and after timeframe gets really tricky.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:52 pm to Azazello
quote:
We drove from Durham to Jackson today. Empty roads. Nobody I know from the triangle is leaving. Better safe than sorry!
Lots of friends/associates in the Triangle. None of them are leaving. I think they will all be safe but 3-5 days without power, a/c, etc would seem to be pretty miserable to me, especially if you can't leave due to heavy rain.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:58 pm to Azazello
quote:
Nobody I know from the triangle is leaving. Better safe than sorry!
There’s no reason to leave that far inland unless you know you’re going to flood from heavy rain.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:00 pm to The Boat
I have a friend on FB who is advocating that people from Charlotte should evacuate... while at the same time, my pal from Wilmington is going to Charlotte.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:01 pm to rds dc
Slightly off topic but maybe everyone can use a breather...
My daughter, 2nd grade, asked me this morning at breakfast, "What is stronger, cold water or hot water?"
My immediate reaction was, "water is the same strength no matter the temperature, provided it is still in liquid form".
After she got on the bus and left, I started thinking, "you know, they say warmer water fuels hurricane strength".
Do I have a budding weatherwoman/scientist on my hands?
My daughter, 2nd grade, asked me this morning at breakfast, "What is stronger, cold water or hot water?"
My immediate reaction was, "water is the same strength no matter the temperature, provided it is still in liquid form".
After she got on the bus and left, I started thinking, "you know, they say warmer water fuels hurricane strength".
Do I have a budding weatherwoman/scientist on my hands?
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