re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

if it skirts chases then pops in 30 miles then sits another 24 hours we are in a world of hurt but many are prepared with generators, filled gas tanks ready to go. where, no one can plan right now accept to South SC/GA line...

If the city of Wilmington is ordered to evacuate (which is only 3-5 miles to pleasure Island-AKA Carolina Bch.) Then I am next to go and I am 30 miles inland- RIGHT literally where IT LOOKS LIKE she may sit and take a huge dump for 24 hours straight. So the beaches which are evaced now are inland; and inland 30 miles may get the worst consistant pounding.

She jogged North a tad but that could change on a dime.

"Water vapor imagery indicates that Florence has finally developed
the much anticipated dual outflow pattern, with outflow jets noted
in the northwestern and eastern quadrants. The latter outflow jet is
flowing into an upper-level low, which is acting as an impressive
mass sink near 25N/49W. These two outflow channels are producing
significant deformation stretching across Florence's inner-core,
which should aid in the re-strengthening process. Now that the eye
has become stable with a diameter of about 30 n mi and since
Florence is expected to remain in a low-shear environment of around
5 kt and over above-average SSTs of 29.0-29.5 deg C, slow but steady
strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 h and
beyond, Florence's slow forward speed, coupled with the large eye
and relatively shallow depth of the warm water should induce some
upwelling beneath the cyclone that will initiate a slow weakening
trend. By 72 hours the vertical wind shear is expected to increase
to near 20 kt from the southwest, which will cause more significant
weakening to occur. However, given the large overall wind field of
Florence along with the large eye, only gradual weakening is
expected. Once Florence moves inland, the slow forward speed of 3-5
kt will result in rapid spin down and weakening of the wind field.
The new official intensity forecast is above of all of the intensity
guidance based on the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow
pattern, and to maintain continuity with the previous forecast.
"

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Duke that notch of 75-Kj/cm water wouldn't be considered an eddy correct? Is it not warm enough?

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An eddy is a fluids thing, little swirly of warm water gets displaced from the overall current flow. I haven't exactly examined that current for eddies rolling off, but you'd think that pocket is part of that sort of process.

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If the city of Wilmington is ordered to evacuate

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It already has.

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I guess this is due to uncertainty of what the storm will do once over land?

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It's just the normal error for the five day. Just because it isn't really moving, the cone expands over the same area. There is quite a bit of uncertainty once it gets at the coast though.

The NC and SC coasts:




Florence:

Supposedly Cantore is in Jacksonville (from what I saw on my FB)

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Yeah we'll need to start watching those USGS gauges. All that water has to go somewhere...

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Looks like SCEG is getting ahead of the game...Saluda is running at 11500 CFS. All the kayakers are geeked out and ducking out of work today.

(Full Disclosure: I'm too busy at work or I'd be with them)

I just found this Facebook page: Where is Jim Cantore?

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That’s a real slutty mess on the Texas coast too

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yeah that things gonna sling rain all over BR