re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

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Isn't this a tiny cone for a storm still so far out?

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No.

The cone encompasses 66% of the error in the past few years for a given timeframe. The cone is the same size, no matter the level of certainty of the forecast.

That subreddit is pretty doom and gloom anytime a storm rolls in

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Not sure if that is a reflection on the storm or the models getting better

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It's partially the models are better but this isn't a complicated steering scenario. There's a high pressure Florence is riding the southern edge of, and while there are a few factors that can alter the shape and strength of that high, we've got a pretty good grasp on it currently. So the models generally agree on the nature of the high; therefore, we have this pretty tight agreement.

It gets a lot more complicated about landfall time, as the high backs away and steering gets very weak.

With the Euro still hinting at a possible south shift toward northern SC, I'd set up shop in Wilmington. They'll drive to near the exact landfall once its in radar range.

Ehh i think theu go to emerald isle at Atlantic Beach...topsail and jacksonville are way too in the path

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I'd set up shop in Wilmington.

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Why would anyone want to be there? Are they launching Dorthy into the eye of the beast?

Watch where TWC people set up, to give you an idea where they think it'll end up. Cantore will be at their projected ground zero, though they've missed a few times recently. Which has typically meant Mike Seidel ends up in the shite instead.

Dat eye tho.

She's going to get much bigger today.

Eta:

Look at that out flow on both the North and South sides. Much better than last night.

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Why would anyone want to be there?

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Bruh, they're storm chasers. Those assholes thought Gulfport during Katrina was a good idea.

Yeah we'll need to start watching those USGS gauges. All that water has to go somewhere...