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Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:07 pm to CobraCommander83
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:07 pm to CobraCommander83
quote:
I’m hearing it has taken a wobble to the west. Anybody got any insight to that?
It's a wobble.
I'll note the Euro came in just a little bit west at 12z, which would bring slightly higher winds into the the east coast. Just something to keep an eye on.
3
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:08 pm to cajunangelle
Looks rather weak. Time for a hurricane party in savannah
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:08 pm to Duke
Thanks.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:10 pm to CobraCommander83
quote:
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:08 pm to Duke
Thanks.
quote:
CobraCommander83
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:14 pm to Duke
rds, Duke, et al... perhaps this is a question to be studied at another time
but what kept this storm from going through an EWRC while it was growing like we've seen in other storms? (yes I know it went through 1 while sitting on top of the Bahamas... I'm talking about prior to that while it was coming up from the Caribbean and really getting its act together)
without the EWRC... Dorian stayed rather small but just kept getting stronger and stronger
I guess not going through 2 or 3 EWRCs between leaving the Caribbean and getting to the Bahamas was both a blessing and curse (certainly all curse for the Bahamas... but a minor blessing for the US east coast) b/c it stayed small until just recently
but what kept this storm from going through an EWRC while it was growing like we've seen in other storms? (yes I know it went through 1 while sitting on top of the Bahamas... I'm talking about prior to that while it was coming up from the Caribbean and really getting its act together)
without the EWRC... Dorian stayed rather small but just kept getting stronger and stronger
I guess not going through 2 or 3 EWRCs between leaving the Caribbean and getting to the Bahamas was both a blessing and curse (certainly all curse for the Bahamas... but a minor blessing for the US east coast) b/c it stayed small until just recently
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:15 pm to Duke
quote:
'll note the Euro came in just a little bit west at 12z, which would bring slightly higher winds into the the east coast. Just something to keep an eye on.
My buddy at Cocoa Beach said waves were breaking at about 6 feet yesterday. He said they are close to 2.5 times that today.
What do you think this is going to do for storm surge?
ETA: He just sent me a projected wave chart. It says they will top out at 6 pm, at 19.5 feet.
This post was edited on 9/3/19 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:16 pm to TigerChief10
quote:
I see we're still trying to push that this is more than a Cat 2 as of now. OP, please update thread title. Dorian is no longer a major hurricane.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:22 pm to rt3
quote:
but what kept this storm from going through an EWRC while it was growing like we've seen in other storms? (yes I know it went through 1 while sitting on top of the Bahamas... I'm talking about prior to that while it was coming up from the Caribbean and really getting its act together)
It's not fully understood.
There has been some hypothesising that the NW edge was kind of squeezed as Dorian ran up into the Bahamas. The thought being it kept any secondary bands from fully wrapping around the center and then collapsed, thus they were over before they could start.
Irma did something similar in the same area. There kept being signs of an eyewall replacement starting and then never materialized. Conditions were pretty much perfect for Irma. It could be that when conditions are so favorable, they don't need to reorganize. Whereas even a tiny disruption could cause the inner core to slow down and since angular momentum is conserved, the strongest winds end up spreading out some and that serves as a focus for a second band to form up. I'm just spitballing here, as the whole process isn't fully understood.
It's really interesting question without definite answers.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:25 pm to Hangit
quote:
My buddy at Cocoa Beach said waves were breaking at about 6 feet yesterday. He said they are close to 2.5 times that today.
What do you think this is going to do for storm surge?
Just means the winds are stronger today. Means Dorian is pushing more water that way. It isn't going to make a huge difference in the eventual surge they see. Closer to the core, the higher the surge because the higher winds over a period of time. The general idea hasn't changed much.
Your local NWS office is going to be your best resource in terms of surge forecasts and the forecast discussion should go into some detail on how the surge potential would change based on track changes. Anyone on the SE coast should check those out.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:39 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
I wasn't running it genius.
But then how do you ensure your webcam keeps running and recording the hurricane that is being shown along with the porn ads to get you paid?
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:41 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
But then how do you ensure your webcam keeps running and recording the hurricane that is being shown along with the porn ads to get you paid?
car batteries... You can literally remove all the ones from the island cause they about to be no good anyways.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:43 pm to TigerFred
quote:
A "wobble" doesn't mean anything
Indeed.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:51 pm to Chad504boy
Thanks for updating the thread title OP. Just didnt want any of our East coast posters to needlessly worry thinking this is still a major cane. Preciate it 
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:54 pm to TigerChief10
...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 3
Location: 27.7°N 78.7°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 3
Location: 27.7°N 78.7°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:55 pm to TigerChief10
You are butt hurt over this.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:57 pm to Chad504boy
Drop this conversation in this thread.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 3:58 pm to 13SaintTiger
quote:Thats my plan. I have a generator and all the hurricane juice I could need.
Looks rather weak. Time for a hurricane party in savannah
Posted on 9/3/19 at 4:02 pm to 13SaintTiger
Posted on 9/3/19 at 4:05 pm to lsuman25
Track shifted a little closer to SC and lower NC coasts since last track.
Posted on 9/3/19 at 4:11 pm to NorthEndZone
Why is there a gap in the Hurricane Warning area? Hurricane Warning from basically Jacksonville, south, and from Savannnah, north, but only a TS Warning / Hurricane watch for the area between the two (i.e. the entire Georgia coast)?
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