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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/31/19 at 7:48 pm to Dick Jacket
Posted on 8/31/19 at 7:48 pm to Dick Jacket
4 days ago, MSN indicated that Dorian would clear Charleston SC Saturday 8/31 around 8:30 a.m. --- go figure! Never saw such a slow crawling storm. This is one for the books!
1
Posted on 8/31/19 at 8:35 pm to CookieTiger
from someone who i trust that is way more knowledgeable about this than i am.
storm should be moving west northwest right now according to gfs. ridge to the north might be stronger than being modeled. gfs runs at 10:30 with the new data.
storm should be moving west northwest right now according to gfs. ridge to the north might be stronger than being modeled. gfs runs at 10:30 with the new data.
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 8/31/19 at 8:42 pm to Will Cover
@MJVentrice 9:38 p.m. EST
quote:
Here's the latest run from 18Z MPAS run. Despite the ECMWF offshore trend over the past 24 hours, our MPAS model stalls Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast for a few hours and slowly brings it onshore.
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 8:43 pm
Posted on 8/31/19 at 8:45 pm to Will Cover
What kinda ghetto model is the MPAS?
Posted on 8/31/19 at 8:46 pm to Cosmo
Private model for IBM.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 8:53 pm to Cosmo
Dropsondes and recon suggest we have a Cat 5. Probably going to see 155 mph at 10 pm.
ETA:
A holy shite dropsonde just came in. 155 kt at surface. Probably a gust but pretty certain there's enough to support 160 mph surface. I hope everyone in the northern Bahamas has left.
ETA:
A holy shite dropsonde just came in. 155 kt at surface. Probably a gust but pretty certain there's enough to support 160 mph surface. I hope everyone in the northern Bahamas has left.
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 8:57 pm
Posted on 8/31/19 at 8:55 pm to Duke
The Bahamas are about to get lit up.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 8:58 pm to KosmoCramer
Lit up would be generous. Flattened may be more accurate unfortunately.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 8:59 pm to Duke
Wx Twitter is strongly suggesting a more west track than models have trended. They seem to be really cautious in saying it without saying it to not create panic. But it doesn’t sound good for Florida from KSC on north to S.C./N.C
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:01 pm to KosmoCramer
What’s an ETA on the Bahamas? Are there any reporters there? I haven’t had it on weather channel all day.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:02 pm to Dick Jacket
I've been up and down 95 from Melbourne to St. Lucie yesterday and today --- and today, most people --- at least from my conversations and observations --- have "relaxed" thinking this storm isn't / wasn't going to be a threat.
Small sample --- but ...
Small sample --- but ...
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:03 pm to rds dc
How wide is Dorian at this time?
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:05 pm to CookieTiger
Anyone have the current runs going into the 10pm update?
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:07 pm to OysterPoBoy
They just started resident evacuations to shelters on Big Island today. (Why not 1 or 2 days ago?) Must be tomorrow evening or Monday a.m.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:08 pm to rds dc
Yep, if MPAS is correct, i'm fricked.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:09 pm to rds dc
WHAT IS THIS? is this for real?
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:10 pm to rds dc
quote:
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:11 pm to KosmoCramer
look at this insanity LINK
Posted on 8/31/19 at 9:11 pm to rds dc
This means the western coast of FL is gonna get slammed too? Seriously?
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