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Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/31/19 at 3:56 pm to AncientTiger
Posted on 8/31/19 at 3:56 pm to AncientTiger
quote:
fwiw- If I learned anything from Barry & Dorian, it’s that Hurricane Cones are much more reliable with fast moving storms rather than slow ones.
Levi's twitter:
Weak steering currents & stalling storms should never be trusted.
With 72 hours before Dorian turns north, even a 1 mph error in the storm's speed until then could result in a 72 mile error in how far west Dorian gets.
0
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:02 pm to rds dc
Can someone pull up the cone from several days ago when this thread was started and see if even their most eastward border was right?
This is ridiculous. Scared the crap out of a lot of people.
This is ridiculous. Scared the crap out of a lot of people.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:07 pm to Bedhog
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:09 pm to jlc05
Well, that's encouraging
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:11 pm to upgrayedd
What track has it coming up through Houma? 
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:13 pm to Marco Esquandolas
That looks like Andrew 2.0
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:16 pm to upgrayedd
The cone conversations crack me up because every time someone brings up the loop animation, that always shows me that the track stayed within the cone of uncertainty.
Hell, if someone bothered to read the discussions, even the NHC admits when there is low confidence in the later days of a forecast.
But no, we shouldn’t talk about a storm until it’s about to make landfall. Got it.
Hell, if someone bothered to read the discussions, even the NHC admits when there is low confidence in the later days of a forecast.
But no, we shouldn’t talk about a storm until it’s about to make landfall. Got it.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:29 pm to mightynine
This thing is looking better abs better
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:31 pm to p&g
quote:
This thing is looking better abs better
Cause it's crunch time, Baw.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:33 pm to jlc05
We need to track down the jackass doing the New Orleans track. Someone is obviously trolling us.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:34 pm to p&g
Coldest cloud tops so far on IR. Recon heading there now, thinking they'll be in about kickoff for LSU. Curious how much the improved presentation translates to wind and pressure.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:53 pm to Bedhog
Well....I guess you're right. The US has no interests whatsoever other than what is contained within the mainland. We have no ships, no cruises, no people who desire to vacation in the Caribbean or Bahamas, no business ventures there, no family members there, really no reason whatsoever to care what a storm way out there in that big ol' ocean does. You're right. Disband the whole thing.
Now, YOU tell us what will happen......
Now, YOU tell us what will happen......
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:55 pm to OysterPoBoy
Yep. You and Bedhog have this weather shite all figured out.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:09 pm to LegendInMyMind
18z GFS has some upper air data NOAA took put into it.
Shows the W Atl ridge stronger than forecast.
vs what it showed for hour 6 at 12z:
It's enough to bring Dorian closer to the east coast. Model still doesn't bring Dorian inland, but just hugs the coast all the way up to the OBX before the final kick out.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:10 pm to Duke
quote:
Coldest cloud tops so far on IR.
So if it can suck that cool air down overnight, we may see a 3 in the morning instead of a 5? That's good news.
Now, can you tell me where the x,y, center of the eye is going to be, within 3.50 meters, 5 days from now? I am tryna form a historical graph, and if you can't, all is lost.
Woe is me.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:25 pm to Hangit
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:38 pm to jlc05
Good or bad?
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:50 pm to LegendInMyMind
Bedhog, and five or so others need to write a little note to hang on their fridges that they shouldn’t click on a hurricane thread until one is less than 48 hours to mainland US landfall.
Their small brains don’t know how to handle forecasting and models.
Their small brains don’t know how to handle forecasting and models.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:55 pm to biggsc
quote:
Good or bad?
Well I guess that has to do with where you live.
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 8/31/19 at 6:08 pm to nuwaydawg
I spent all freaking day prepping my place at St Augustine Beach today. It was blazing hot and I had to work my tail off. I hope it was all for nothing.
It was a ghost town but, few have prepared their properties.
It was a ghost town but, few have prepared their properties.
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