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Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:02 pm to slackster
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:02 pm to slackster
NAM 3k was pumping out 97" on one run yesterday. 
Flooding concerns increasing for the Carolinas too. Somebody posted a man of the 0z Euro on the Twitters showing a jet stream running up the NE coast. Put coastal SC, NC, and VA generally in the right front entrance of the jet stream with Dorian providing onshore flow.
It's not really on the GFS as far as I can see, so this is more of a "be aware" than "build an ark".
Flooding concerns increasing for the Carolinas too. Somebody posted a man of the 0z Euro on the Twitters showing a jet stream running up the NE coast. Put coastal SC, NC, and VA generally in the right front entrance of the jet stream with Dorian providing onshore flow.
It's not really on the GFS as far as I can see, so this is more of a "be aware" than "build an ark".
0
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:03 pm to slackster
Holy geez
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:05 pm to slackster
Bad bad bad. That stall is terrible no matter where it happens, but you're right, if it were on the mainland it would be a major flood.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:06 pm to rds dc
Man Dorian sure has been one big pain in the arse storm with projections.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:07 pm to LegendInMyMind
And not just the rain; two and a half days of major hurricane winds along with it. I would be doing everything I could to get off of those islands.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:09 pm to deuce985
The slow down has really proved difficult. The initial steering features when the models first started running a few days ago are no longer really in play. When the storm started to slow, it brought features into play that weren't even really on the map when the models first started running.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:10 pm to BayouENGR
Has Orgeron given orders to distpatch the Cajun Navy ?
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:11 pm to slackster
Damn, the ocean is gonna get flooded AF
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:12 pm to Klingler7
Orgeron should worry about losing to his next Troy tonight first instead of a storm.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:17 pm to LegendInMyMind
Yeah, it's pretty amazing to see the shifts this storm has done over the past several days. I'd love to see a graphic that shows day by day just how the tracks have changed. Not only that, Dorian decided it was going to be resilient and just miss all land interactions to soup itself up to a Cat 4. Those tracks missed both Puerto Rico and Hispanialo.
It went from getting shredded in Hispanialo with it lucky to be a TS by landfall(if not destroyed) to reforming hitting Puerto Rico and missing that completely to the Cat 4 it is now.
I've seen a lot of storms fairly accurately predicted on paths 7 days out but I think the computer models have struggled mightily with this storm and have projected very poorly.
It went from getting shredded in Hispanialo with it lucky to be a TS by landfall(if not destroyed) to reforming hitting Puerto Rico and missing that completely to the Cat 4 it is now.
I've seen a lot of storms fairly accurately predicted on paths 7 days out but I think the computer models have struggled mightily with this storm and have projected very poorly.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:19 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
The slow down has really proved difficult. The initial steering features when the models first started running a few days ago are no longer really in play. When the storm started to slow, it brought features into play that weren't even really on the map when the models first started running.
This is a really good point.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:24 pm to Duke
That's why I said last night's Tropical Tidbits video may be some of Levi's best work. I learned more about the nuances of steering from that video than I knew before. He did a great job breaking it all down.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:28 pm to LegendInMyMind
It’s crazy how this won’t even make landfall in the US when 2 days ago I saw a graphic with 20 models and all of them had it hitting Florida
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:30 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I learned more about the nuances of steering from that video than I knew before. He did a great job breaking it all down.
Levi is a genius at making the very complex very approachable and easy to understand.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:36 pm to Duke
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:39 pm to deuce985
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:43 pm to dallastiger55
quote:
It’s crazy how this won’t even make landfall in the US
So 2 days ago they were dead wrong but what they are projecting now is completely accurate?
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:49 pm to WestSideTiger
quote:
So 2 days ago they were dead wrong but what they are projecting now is completely accurate?
Kind of what I was thinking, especially for a 5+ day projection on what has been a crazy storm so far
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:52 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:56 pm to WestSideTiger
Model watching several days outleaved a lot to be desired. Barry and now Dorian is proving that.
It’s s tool and that’s if. It’s not close to bring definite.
It’s s tool and that’s if. It’s not close to bring definite.
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