re: How imminent is a housing crisis in this country?

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I'm one and a half payments away from clearing my 30 year 3% mortgage after 19 years of payments. Worked my arse off, kids are out of the house, and I'm finally hitting my stride with my business. Obviously, I think I'm coasting to cross the River of Babylon. Wife informs me she wants a bigger house with a pool. I think that the housing crisis might be a misnomer for a marital crisis.

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Tell your wife to jump in a lake.

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Boomers paid 14% at times you little no count Z'er.

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Lol

This is a horrible time to buy, depending on what and where you're buying.

By the year 2035, for the first time in this nations history, we will have more people over the age of 65 than under the age of 18.

In many instances, the Silver Tsunami will crash property values and what you buy today will not be what it's worth in 15 years. The crash won't be fast moving like 2008 but will be gradual.

You need a 15 yr mortgage on a single-level home in an economically diverse, walkable metropolitan regions to be desirable where both the aging population and future buyers want to live.

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frick me. I haven't checked mortgage rates in a while and thought you were being sarcastic so I had to check. Current market is nuts.

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We sold and moved this spring. Got a good bit of equity and paid off some debt. I’m thinking we might just rent for a little while and let the market settle before we try to buy something. I’m worried about getting stuck in an inflated rate with an inflated price that I can basically never refi. Something has got to give. People in SELA can’t afford $500k houses at 8% forever.

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realtors have been telling

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Realtors are a fricking problem. They are awful.

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This isn't new. Every generation has had to deal with this.

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of course they do. I didn’t say otherwise. what I said was as compared to 1981, the percentage of household income it takes to afford that is greater in 2026 than it was in 1981.

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Why assume this.(20%)

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You can change that number, but it still doesn’t change the fact that in 2026 it takes a much greater percentage of your household income to get to whatever percentage you set than it did in 1981. About 25% more.

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I think we’re due for another 2008 crisis and selfishly hope it happens for my own positions soon, not if.

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This is nothing like 2008.

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. No need to downsize if your payments not gonna go down much, if any.

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Other than lower insurance premiums on a smaller lower priced home. Reduced property taxes on a smaller lower priced home. Lower utility bills on a smaller home. Lower maintenance costs on a smaller home.

Like all things real estate related its all about location. Homes near military bases will always sell in short order and will almost always slowly increase in value - not the wild increases seen elsewhere but also none of the lows.

What,s really amazing is the cliff that rent is experiencing. New units finally coming online after COVID has dropped rent in most metro areas 2-3% a year for the last 3-4 years. The cost of money and glut of vacant units will reverse that in the next couple of years though....but if one is renting right now in most metro areas there are some bargain basement prices for at least 1-2 lease cycles. My son just reduced his rent in Atlanta by $300 a month on an apartment he was considering 5 years ago when the rent was almost double what he is paying now....and that is not a one off.

They love the price but hate the property tax appraisal. Oh well, they'll have to price the family home to move or starve once we cut them off the social security government tit.